I think Castro will be fine. Maldy will continue to suck but that has never been a concern to the FO. Yuli is beginning to worry me and Diaz has also been terrible. All around the positional depth has been garbage this season.
I am a little concerned about Gurriel as well. His EV is way down (85) as is his barrel rate, hard hit rate, and bb %. They’re married to him for this season but I wouldn’t mind them moving him down to 7th or 8th in the lineup to see if he can get jump started, and it may be time to let him go after the season. I am sure they are resting guys so often based on analytics they have that shows players wear down after a certain number of games/pa, but I do wonder how that is affecting the hitters rhythm/preparation, especially some of the veteran players. Pena has been a revelation but he is not yet as intimidating of a hitter as Correa, so Houston cannot really afford for multiple guys in their lineup to be hurt/underperforming. Altuve being healthy and productive should be a big boost, hopefully Gurriel turns it around, and maybe Meyers will be really good when he comes back.
This is a completely different team when Bregman and Tucker are hitting well. We need them to pick it up desperately.
I have been eyeing Juan Soto as a potential trade target for Houston. The Nats are awful and don’t really look to be all that good even next season. They are wasting an incredibly valuable resource in Soto who will not be cheap in arbitration in 2023-2024 (he is already making $17M this year). Given his large expected arbitration salaries, I peg his surplus value at only around $70M. Houston doesn’t have pure prospects to realistically make that trade but if the Nats wanted to get out from under Patrick Corbin’s albatross the Astros could probably make it interesting. Maybe something like: Astros get: LF Juan Soto SP Patrick Corbin Nats get: RHP Hunter Brown RHP Cristian Javier OF/IF Pedro Leon RHP Forrest Whitley SP Jake Odorizzi Nats get 3 potential MoR better SP plus a versatile position player prospect with a very high ceiling/floor combo. They also shed Corbin’s $50M+. Odorizzi gives them an offseason/2023 trade chip who can eat innings while they rebuild. Astros get one of the 5 best hitters on earth for 2+ seasons. They also switch out Odorizzi for Corbin which is probably an upgrade. Astros resulting lineup: 2B Altuve LF Soto 3B Bregman DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel RF Tucker SS Pena CF Meyers C Maldonado Brantley would become a LH bench bat who also would fill in at RF, LF, DH, and maybe even 1B. Next season Matijevic steps in for Gurriel and Lee takes over for Maldy.
If he really uses analytics to determine resting people How can he bat Goodrum 2nd? There is no analytical system that would say that is a good idea These are the kind of things that make me wonder if Dusty uses much of the analytics in his decision making
Even if their front office wanted to make that deal, there is ZERO chance ownership would allow it I doubt Soto gets moved, but if he does it would require much much more than Javier, a terrible starter in Odorizzi and three non top-100 prospects I don't think we have what it would take to get Soto unless Framber/Garcia were included along with Javier, Brown, Whitley and Meyers
i don't see it happening but if it did I would expect the Astros to move Brantley to recover some money rather than have a 16 million dollar guy on the bench. I think Benintendi is a much more likely target because it wouldn't be near the cost of a Soto.
I agree based on the nationals history that their owner wouldn’t likely sign off on trading Soto, especially this season. But their trade of Turner last year gives some hope they’d at least entertain the idea. I also agree that if they did trade Soto they’d be looking for the type of elite elite prospects Houston doesn’t have, rather than trying to offload Corbin’s deal. BUT if they did prioritize financial flexibility then I do think that package is in range. Brown is very likely one of the top 100 prospects in the league at this point. The values of Javier, Whitley, and Leon are very hard to gauge, but it is pretty easy to see how a team might value them in line with a fringe/mid top 100 prospect. Think about what the Nats got for Turner/Scherzer: Ruiz and Gray are the bulk of the return. Ruiz was BA #53 coming into 2021 and Gray #68. I would argue that Brown is equivalent to Gray at this point. So Javier, Leon, and Whitley just have to have similar value to Ruiz. Soto comes with an extra year compared to Turner, but that’s where eating Corbin’s deal comes in.
I suspect Dusty trusts trainers to tell him when guys need rest. On Goodrum batting 2nd, I think Dusty has figured out that there ain't **** Click do about him batting Goodrum second except trading/cutting Goodrum. I don't think the Astros alignment between front office is as good as the Luhnow-Hinch alignment or even the Stone-Silas alignment regarding decision making.
Its clear Dusty's logic has him trying not to bat rookies (Pena) near the top of the lineup all that often... not a terrible approach but still unlikely to be based on real data. Then the only other thing he looks at is lefty/righty and splitting them up to avoid lefty relief specialists.... even though we also know there's not a tremendous amount of data there and he's made the mistake of batting or PH some guys who have reverse splits.
You have to wonder why the situation has been permitted to persist. I don't think MLB is forcing Dusty on the Astros. With as many supporters as Click has among Astros fans you think they would be incensed that Crane has not allowed Click to pick his own skipper.
I think Crane is still using Dusty for some goodwill. Also, I think the players like Dusty, and the interpersonal relations between manager and player is likely more important (e.g., players are comfortable telling him when they are banged up) than being 100% sound in game management. It is just frustrating that things like having a subpar hitter batting 1st or 2nd is so easy to avoid messing up.
Looking over the numbers, while Chaz had a slow start to the season, he seems to be coming on. Contact% is up, K% is way down and the power has more or less maintained from last year. Looking more and more like a legit 2+ win, everyday OF. On the other hand, I don't really believe in Siri and don't think he should get any run over McCormick except when both are needed on a given day. Hopefully when Meyers returns (and assuming his good health/performance) Siri will still have good enough numbers where he can be traded at the deadline.
I agree with this. McCormick should be getting everyday play until Meyers gets back. Siri is a k machine whose skills translate very well to a 4th OF role. And I do think there might be a rebuilding team out there that could see him as another Adolis Garcia and be willing to take him as a meaningful piece in a trade for a good player.
