"The coaching staff’s assertion that Dubón is its best defensive center fielder does not align with any publicly available defensive metrics. According to Baseball Savant, Dubón is worth negative-one outs above average. FanGraphs measures him worth zero defensive runs saved. McCormick, meanwhile, is worth six outs above average and two defensive runs saved. "
Houston Astros Does anyone else find it odd that Click and Baker are not certain to return when their three-year partnership has resulted in an ALCS appearance, a World Series appearance and an expectation the team again will play deep into October? Good. I thought maybe I was missing something. To understand the situation in Houston, go back to Jan. 13, 2020, and owner Jim Crane’s firings of GM Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch in the wake of the team’s penalties for illegal sign stealing. Crane hired Baker, a veteran manager, 16 days later, and Click, a first-time GM, five days after that. Usually, the GM comes first, then they pick the manager. But Crane needed the stability Baker could offer before he could worry about the GM. In the three years since, the Astros have won the most regular-season games in the American League. And yet, their internal dynamics are fragile. Baker and Click occasionally clash over the GM’s desire for a more analytical approach. The bigger problem, though, appears to be between Crane and Click. Crane is difficult, demanding and heavily involved in baseball operations, acting almost as an owner/GM. He said he had no knowledge of the Astros’ illegal sign stealing in 2017 and 2018, and some in the organization believe he took a more active role because he did not want to get blind-sided and embarrassed again. In any case, Crane does not trust Click the way he trusted Luhnow, with whom he worked for eight seasons, enduring a painful rebuild and then enjoying great, albeit tainted, success. Crane also is more inclined to act quickly and boldly than Click, who came from the Rays, a more frugal, deliberate operation. None of Click’s transactions has been particularly flashy — Crane handles major signings — but most qualified as solid. Click acquired Phil Maton, a quality reliever, and catcher/first baseman Yainer Diaz, the Astros’ No. 3 prospect, for center fielder Myles Straw, who has the lowest OPS in the majors with the Guardians. Click also hit on a number of other bullpen moves, a minor trade for Brooks Raley, a bigger one for Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero, and the free-agent signings of Ryne Stanek and Héctor Neris. His in-season haul this year, however — utility Mauricio Dubón, catcher Christian Vázquez, designated hitter Trey Mancini and lefty reliever Will Smith — was decidedly modest. Click, 44, has succeeded in not screwing up a good thing, which is not always as easy as it looks. And keep in mind, he’s working with a manager he inherited, a manager with his own ideas, a manager who draws credibility from his 2,089 career regular-season victories, ninth on the all-time list. Baker, 73, wants to keep going, too, even if he wins his first World Series as a manager. “People are all, wouldn’t you want to go out on top?” Baker told me last year. “No … I need two in a row.” Baker, who tends to rely on his instincts and experience, probably would be a handful for any of today’s data-driven GMs. But he is not a total dinosaur, closed off from all information. His pitching coaches help create game plans and shape pitching decisions. Espada, his bench coach, also serves as a strategic resource. And, lest anyone forget, Baker just keeps winning. For all he has accomplished, for all the leadership he provided the organization coming out of the sign-stealing scandal, he deserves to go out on his own terms. Crane couldn’t justify parting with him, even if he wanted to. So what happens? If Crane fires Click, prospective GMs might think twice about taking the Astros’ job, knowing they, too, would be unable to choose their own manager, and that Click, for all his success, somehow could not satisfy the owner. The best solution might be to keep the entire group together, but the Astros seem to be approaching a breaking point. An early departure in the postseason might serve as an impetus for Crane to effect change.
I think firing Click would be a monumental mistake on Crane’s part. Crane has so far threaded the needle of “engaged owner”, committed to winning and involved when needed, but letting the front office do it’s job. Firing a GM after 3 years when one of those years included a pennant would be taking a huge step away from “engaged owner” toward “meddling owner”. No quality GM is going to want to work long term under an owner like that. I think that’s a big part of what has cursed the Angels.
Crane could turn into Jerry Jones really quickly. Great start making an outstanding hire leading to success, and that success leading him to thinking he knows too much, and very little success afterwards. I have absolutely no idea if Click's system will be good at generating MLB talent, but he hasn't even been given a chance to do that. I sure as hell wouldn't want this job if Click gets fired for no good reason without even being given a chance to implement his own organization, or even hire his own manager. If he outright chooses Dusty over Click I will immediately lose all faith in this franchise heading forward. Crane made a a great hire, but his big bold ideas aren't why Luhnow was successful
Jerry Jones is an excellent comparison. My worry is that Crane’s involvement in the Verlander trade makes Crane think he’s the real reason the Astros won it all and that without a Verlander level move every deadline the GM is a failure. But Crane had **** all to do with bringing in Strom and Ocampo and drafting Correa, Bregman, and Tucker, and trading for Yordan. Click obviously made a genius move in keeping the guys who replaced Strom; it would have been really easy for him to look elsewhere, and I haven’t seen any credit to Click for the excellent overall performance of the pitching staff this season. Click has also improved the farm despite tremendous disadvantages, and the early returns from his first full draft have been very positive. Like I said, it would be a HUGE mistake to fire Click.
I'm wondering if we could FIX the situation by Crane taking a hands off approach to the Manager. Retain or re-hire Click as GM and let him choose his Manager. But there is no reason not to have Baker as a candidate. Baker would need to know Click is the boss and his hire by Crane is in the past. Reality isn't quite so simple, but it looks good on paper. Just checked and both are finishing contracts that expire at the end of the 2022 season. Dusty's was a 1 year contract, so technically, Click hired him for this season. I'm not sure how much control Crane gave him to hire Dusty back. Judging from Dusty's comments (One WS is not enough), he has no intention of exiting baseball for a peaceful retirement. He'll have to be pushed out or die while managing.
I generally agree. I'm not sure Click is a great GM (though much more pro than a lot of people here), but I think firing him for keeping a great team together instead of making splashes is a scary proposition on the type of future GM the Astros get. Edit: I think GMs separate themselves through amateur player acquisition and development. I have no major issues with Click's handling of the MLB team.
Reading the write up for Ocampo, would there be ANY CHANCE he would be considered for GM? He seems to have the background for it.
I think given how organization-spanning the pitching philosophy has been, and the demand for Astros pitching coaches, I don't think it would have made too much sense to bring in a new voice to lead the pitching staff. Click's MO has seemed to be if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I would be surprised if Crane moved on from Click, unless he thinks he can get a blockbuster hire (Stearns?), or there's someone in the org that he thinks should lead. Otherwise, you're probably replacing Click with a less proven version of Click. For all the lack of flashy moves, the Astros have really done well transitioning prospects to the majors since Click took over. Under Luhnow, McCullers was the only pitching prospect that really blossomed into an impact starter (though Musgrove probably would have if not for the Cole trade). Now the rotation is full of homegrown talent. Their big move this deadline came from trading away a player signed as a MiLB FA (something Luhnow shied away from). I also think the early returns on international hitters under Click is pretty good, which was something of a strange incompetence under Luhnow. Overall, I am not too worried about Crane's involvement. He likes aggressive moves, but so far hasn't significantly handicapped the team with Moreno-esque free agent demands. I think Verlander is more of a unique situation of a fantastic player-owner relationship than a trend of heavy involvement on his part.
...but according to Dusty defenders... all the off days and nonsensical lineups are from the front office!
Right or wrong Click is gone. He lacks the innovative thinking that made this team a success. He can't control his manager, and he screwed the pooch at the trade deadline. If you think he did all that could be done at the deadline I may be able to explain why you are not a GM. He checked in on all the players with a big for sale tag on them. Hell, you or I could have done that. A GM worth his salt identifies and targets the players he wants and goes out and gets them. That is what Crane expected. Instead he got a lame story about why that did not happen. Another thing a GM worth his salt does is hire a manager he can work with. If you need to hire an excellent GM you can't offer him half the job by pawning off a manager like Dusty on him.
My guess is if Click is fired it will be for what happened at the deadline. If Crane gave marching orders and Click failed to produce for whatever reason a World Series victory might be the only thing that will save him and nothing else. You tell your guy we have 30 million to improve the team and you end up with Mancini and nothing else I can understand why you might be pissed enough to make a change. Come on Snake...a HUGE mistake...Crane deserves more respect than that. I'm pretty pro Click but he hasn't done anything near enough to start questioning Crane.
When I look at the Astros, I see a very good 95 win team. Not a 100+ win team. IMO the Astros are over-performing. As much hate as Click and Baker get, the Astros team has done very well this season. I would be surprised if Crane moves on from either. If Crane does move on from either, I would strongly suspect that it would not be for performance ... more for interpersonal reasons.
I had this team be a 97-102 win range. The starting pitching was incredible last year (2nd in ERA then hit a wall in the playoffs) and got bolstered this year plus add in experience and endurance + Verlander. I only saw improvement in that area from last year. I expected some dropoff in offense but if anything they are underperforming.
