Greinke hasn't had a relief appearance in 14 years. If he bombs his last few starts then you make a change, but if Greinkes pitching he's starting. Urquidy tandems one of the first 2 games. Hopefully Javier can string together some strong outings down the stretch.
The good (or bad) thing about Greinke is you know relatively early in the game if his command/arm is feeling good. If the fastball is topping out at 88, usually not going to bode well in terms of avoiding clean innings. His curveball can be recognized fairly early based on his release so if its hanging in any form, it usually gets deposited. His best pitch, the changeup, is going to vary in significance based on fastball speed/location. He's found more command on his slider as the season has gone on and if he can harness that, bodes well for ground-balls and keeping the hitters from sitting on the fastball.
I forgot if Greinke had faced them in any of the previous 6 games this year… I know Garcia was very effective, albeit worked around some traffic.
With Urquidy, Odorizzi, and Javier available in the playoff bullpen as multi-inning options, Houston can afford to have a pretty quick hook on all their starters. As capable as Garcia, Valdez, and McCullers have looked this season, none of them are the type of established aces anyone would feel confident counting on 6+ innings in a playoff start. Unfortunately if Houston is going to go deep in the playoffs, they’re going to have to follow the Rays playbook. But we pretty much knew that as soon as Verlander had surgery and Houston didn’t make a move for an ace to replace him.
We say that... despite not realizing that the Astros have been closer to the Death Star and being the true evil empire moreso than the Yankees have since 2015.
A subplot of this crazy 2021 season has been the pecking order of the Astros’ rotation. From 2015 forward, the team had a slate of aces and then guys you hoped could stay healthy. Going into 2021, the Astros had.... guys you hoped could stay healthy. Well, here we are in mid-September and the staff has been a strength, even without a clear ace. At the end of August, the main question was how two slightly-injured pitchers would fare upon their return, and whether Dusty would skip people’s starts in order to keep arms fresh. This series in Arlington has changed that, one start at a time. First, Odorizzi had to leave in the 2nd inning, and is now on the IL with “foot soreness.” Then Greinke got bombed. And finally Urquidy spun an absolute gem. How does this change things? Let me suggest three ways: There’s almost no chance that Odorizzi makes it to the postseason roster. He would need to absolutely dazzle in the two starts he would have after returning from the IL. Greinke needs to show he’s playoff ready and only has three starts to do it. Can he miss bats? Keep the ball in the yard? Get righties out? Urquidy has a real chance to seize the bull by the horns. His stuff doesn’t blow anyone away, but he commands all of his pitches and profiles very much like a #3 starter. Plus, he’s only thrown 106IP across the minors and majors. His arm should be fresh. Three good starts, plus some slippage from Garcia, and it’s not far-fetched that Urquidy start Game 3 of the ALCS. Nobody would have said that at the beginning of the week. https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2021/...rlington-changed-the-playoff-pitching-picture
Dusty will go with whoever he feels gives him the best chance to win. Granted, sometimes this needs to be spelled out for him. luckily, being an old school manager also has him in love with things like strikeouts and velocity… two things Greinke has been struggling with.
Greinke is going to be one of the Astros starting pitchers in the playoffs unless he is hurt. He may have an extremely short leash but if he’s healthy he will be out there.
Zero chance Greinke doesn't make the playoff roster. The question is do you trot him out there in one of the first 2 games, or do you try and stash him as a 5th starter and hope you can end the series before it's his turn?
I think if things hold as is, you slot Greinke 3rd or 4th on a short leash for the away games at CWS. Maybe LMJ 1, Framber 2, and mix of Urquidy/Greinke for 3/4 depending how the series goes.
He gets a shot to get through the lineup once. Anything more than that is anther strike against Click and Dusty.
