Astros mailbag: Picking a Game 1 starter, the plan when José Urquidy returns and Dusty Baker’s contract status https://theathletic.com/2771340/202...idy-returns-and-dusty-bakers-contract-status/ Which Astros pitcher would you pick to be the Game 1 starter in the playoffs if they started today? — Chad S. Jake Kaplan: If a best-of-five ALDS started today, I think Lance McCullers Jr. would be the Astros’ Game 1 (and potential Game 5) starter. He’s having a good season (3.22 ERA in 114 2/3 innings), his stuff is difficult for hitters to square up (opponents are hitting only .208 against him and slugging only .326) and he has big-game experience. Even in the games in which he racks up a high pitch count early, his ability to induce a swing-and-miss or a groundball gives him a good chance to limit damage. Framber Valdez’s regression in the strike-throwing department should drop him from the top spot to a Game 2 or Game 3, if he’s not needed out of the bullpen in a Game 1. McCullers in Game 1, Valdez in Game 2 and Luis Garcia in Game 3 would make sense. Garcia running out of gas amid his career high in innings, José Urquidy coming back from injury and having a strong September or Valdez being used in relief early in a postseason series are all realistic things that could change the postseason rotation calculus. A Game 4 decision would be tricky; it would feel strange for the Astros to not use Zack Greinke for an ALDS start, but his performance has been unpredictable. In any given start, you don’t know if you’re going to see the Greinke who pitches seven scoreless innings or the Greinke who allows four runs and gets chased in the fifth inning. Once Urquidy comes back, do you see the Astros going to a six-man rotation again down the stretch to conserve their starters’ arms? If not, who goes to the bullpen? — Andy T. Jake Kaplan: Urquidy isn’t expected to be activated until September. If all six starters are healthy at the point the Astros are ready to activate him, they will have an interesting decision to make. Do they go to a six-man rotation? Or do they boot Jake Odorizzi to the bullpen? In that scenario, I could see the Astros going either way or their decision amounting to some combination of both. Their September schedule has them playing 17 consecutive days from Sept. 10 through Sept. 26 and on 23 of the final 24 days of the regular season. A six-man rotation for at least some of that stretch is feasible. If the Astros reach a point in September where all six starters are healthy and they’re confident Urquidy’s shoulder isn’t going to be an issue, perhaps the move then would be to bump Odorizzi to the bullpen to evaluate whether he might be able to add value in a relief role on a postseason roster. Odorizzi has been the worst of the six starters by performance this season, but moving him to the bullpen too early could backfire if a starter gets hurt. Do you think Dusty Baker will be the Astros’ manager in 2022? — Colby H. Jake Kaplan: I go back and forth on whether I think Baker will be back for one more season, but I tend to think he will be on more days than I think he won’t. The Astros have played really well this season, and while I think that is primarily because they have a lot of good players, what’s the case for not bringing back the manager of one of the best teams in baseball? A botched postseason on Baker’s part would qualify. But otherwise, as long as Baker wants to come back and manage next year at age 73, I think the Astros might invite him back for one more year when his contract runs out after October. Do you get the sense there is friction between James Click and Dusty? Dusty seemed to defend Myles Straw, even when struggling. Then when Straw was traded, Click said Chas McCormick did everything he could to deserve more playing time. Even with Straw being the starter, it seemed odd Dusty did not give McCormick more starts before the trade deadline for evaluation. This kind of seems like a quote from the “Moneyball” movie “you can’t start Straw anymore because he is not on the team!” — Tony E. Jake Kaplan: So in this “Moneyball” analogy, Straw is Carlos Peña and McCormick is Scott Hatteberg? (Worth noting: Though the A’s did trade Peña to the Tigers during the 2002 season, the movie fudged the timeline.) This is a fun thought. I don’t think it went down quite like that in the Astros’ situation, but it was pretty clear that Baker was a fan of Straw. He stuck with him as his everyday center fielder despite Straw’s early struggles and frequently backed him in his comments to reporters. McCormick’s performance warranted him getting more playing time, but Straw also turned things around. It could be argued that Baker did Click a favor by playing Straw so much because Straw’s improvement post-April helped his trade value. It’s difficult to assess whether there’s actual friction between them without being privy to their conversations with one another, but I do think it would’ve been interesting to witness Baker’s real-time reaction when Click called him on July 30 to tell him he had traded Straw. Since the trade, though, Baker has treated McCormick as his everyday center fielder like he did Straw, perhaps even more than he should. Given that Jake Meyers is a superior defender in center field, he should bump McCormick to a corner in the games Meyers plays. But even in those games, Baker has kept McCormick in center in an effort to let him get comfortable at his new regular position. Does Meyers earn more playing time after his two-homer game on Saturday? — John G. Jake Kaplan: Two-homer game or not, Meyers basically has to play regularly until Kyle Tucker is cleared to be activated from the COVID-related IL. McCormick and Meyers are the only outfielders who profile well in right field on the active roster at the moment. Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz are out of position in right, so the Astros might want to go that route only in ballparks with less ground to cover in right field. And Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, where the Astros play Monday through Thursday, has a particularly expansive outfield. Coming into the season, how high on the Astros’ concern list would you say infield depth sat? Assuming Bregman comes back to the lineup, do you think there’s a playoff roster spot needed for a sixth infielder, and if so who is your pick? — Mark F. Jake Kaplan: It was probably pretty low, especially since they had the since-traded Abraham Toro, and shortstop prospect Jeremy Peña was going to begin the season in Triple A before he injured his wrist in April at the alternate training site. Even Alex De Goti looked like a viable bench candidate after a strong spring training, but he struggled in Triple A this year. I wonder if the Astros regret putting Jack Mayfield on waivers early last offseason. Yes, it made some sense at the time to clear 40-man roster spots for potential offseason acquisitions. But they ended up spending a 40-man roster spot to claim Robel García off waivers during spring training anyway. And Mayfield is better than García. Assuming health, the Astros have 12 position-player spots accounted for on a playoff roster: Yuli Gurriel, José Altuve, Bregman, Carlos Correa, Díaz, Martín Maldonado, Jason Castro, Yordan Alvarez, Brantley, McCormick, Tucker and Meyers. An 11- or 12-man pitching staff in a best-of-five ALDS would mean a 15- or 14-man position player group. I’m not sure the Astros could even get to 15 if they tried, but carrying Garrett Stubbs as a third catcher/pinch runner/emergency fielder and Taylor Jones as an additional pinch hitter would make sense. Playing García or Wilson in the postseason would be malpractice. Would the Astros consider signing their old friend, Marwin González? Sure he’s not great, but he’s better than Robel García or Jacob Wilson, right? — Stacy Y. Jake Kaplan: A team that has given 117 plate appearances to García and has Wilson on its bench should consider literally any infielder who becomes available. But the difference between García/Wilson and Gonzalez is that the Astros have the roster flexibility to shuttle García/Wilson between Triple A and the majors, as needed. Gonzalez, who has performed rather poorly these past two seasons, would either get cut when the position-player group returned to full strength or require the Astros to cut or option a reliever they like so that they can go back to a four-man bench. I think it would make a bit more sense if they had roster flexibility, but even then I don’t think Gonzalez really moves the needle at this stage of his career. What are Click’s options for improving the team’s infield depth other than García and Wilson? Any young talent in the minors more worthy of getting a shot? — Mark P. Jake Kaplan: The options are basically anybody who hits the waiver wire or is already a free agent, but those players are on the waiver wire or free agents for a reason. Jeremy Peña would’ve been the guy had he been healthy because he’s already a major-league-caliber defender and needs to be added to the 40-man roster in the offseason anyway as protection from the Rule 5 Draft. But his left wrist surgery virtually wiped out his season, though there is a chance he will make it back for some games with Sugar Land late in the season now that the Triple-A schedule runs through Oct. 3. The Astros seem like they’re basically banking on Bregman’s return to fix their infield depth issue. His activation would push Díaz back to his super-utility role and Wilson to Triple A, where García was already demoted.
That's another huge Couldabeen. All the talent in the world and a ten cent brain. Tim Redding Disease.
Indeed... although Redding did make ~ 150 MLB starts and threw over 800 MLB innings. The "couldabeen's" that were still able to carve out a career could have their own category... vs. guys like Martes/Singleton.
Yeah my understanding is that there were a lot of problems there after him being a model citizen and prospect early on. After he had some success, he refused to listen to his coaches concerning his delivery.... he also did not follow their training and diet suggestions... had some issues with women off the field and became an overall jerk. They really tried holding onto him hoping he would be humbled or that he would mature and neither happened. Martes believes he knows best, and that his failure has been the result of everyone else except himself.
Both Urquidy and Bregman only likely have a 'set' amount of games/innings left before they likely get injured again (both require likely a full off-season of healing and/or procedures to assist in healing). Seems like the Astros will be handling them both fairly similarly... get them back closer to the playoffs just to ensure their timing is as good as possible, then pray when they go all out they'll last for the month.
Things I would like to see happen before the regular season ends..... 1. Kendall Graveman extension 2. Justin Verlander bullpen session 3. Jeremy Pena playing as much SS as possible in AAA
