I’ve thought for a while that Correa made some sense in DET...his numbers wouldn’t be sexy in that ballpark, but money trumps all I suppose. Also, I have no idea who 70% of their roster is, but I’ll take Snakes word haha. With Trae to LAD, I wonder if Seager is on the way out of town. SS market will be interesting to watch...I’m still holding out hope that HOU is the best landing spot for Showrea
I just don’t see Click offering $200M+ to any player ever, even a homegrown HOF caliber talent. I think Semien, Taylor, Story, or Baez will be the guys Houston targets, hoping one of them has a disappointing market and/or just wants to play for a real contender. Correa and Seager are just out of Houston’s comfort zone.
Crane has a lot of say in what is or isn't offered, and Correa is one of the players he is the closest to.... but I do agree with the general sentiment. I think that the Astros will try to sign another SS in this huge class to a shorter and less expensive deal. I don't think they will completely cheap out, I could actually see Seager to the Astros (depending on the market). Semien, Story and Baez have been very up and down in their career so it will be interesting to see what kind of money they get. Story isn't going back to Colorado but the deeper you dive into his performance, the more obvious it is that he just doesn't hit good pitching well enough for the post season. Baez is someone that the Cubs would be open to bringing back. He was offered 180 million a few years ago, but he isn't getting that offer on the market or from the Cubs again. He is an all or nothing type player that struggles to focus. If we sign him he may well be very good, but he isn't well rounded. Semien's performance has been all over the map but he has hit good pitching and has developed into a pretty good defensive player when healthy.... I think he is the most likely choice for the Astros as his deal can be relatively short and he can hit when healthy.
Altuve is on a ~$150M contract extension signed in 2018. Provided free agent prices bounce back, it isn't going to take many years before $200M is worth ~150M in 2018 dollars.
Semien on something like $130M/5yrs or Taylor on something like $90M/4yrs would be the type of deal I would hope Houston could snag. Both guys are versatile enough to be able to move around to accommodate whatever might happen with Leon and Pena.
Whoever we bring in (hoping it is still Correa, but I understand that realistically, he will get a better offer elsewhere), I think we need to focus on defense. Much of Correa's value is in his defense. Even when he has slumped offensively, dude can still pick it and has a cannon for an arm. Replacing him with less offense AND less defense is asking for trouble. I am cautiously optimistic that Crane says eff it, let's ride or die with Correa. I'd be happy immediately, but also can see how that contract can hamstring us with less financial flexibility 3-7 years out.
And if Bregman bounces back to MVP form, they'll probably give him an Altuve-like-timing extension on his deal that will bring the total value above $200 million. If Crane really wants Correa back, and there's a discrepancy of either 1-2 years or $20-30 million between the parties, I have a feeling they'll figure it out. Again, the back has appeared to hold up thus far. I would expect him to get back to his pre-illness plate discipline and end up leading the team in OPS at the end of the year. That certainly raises his expected value compared to what the team thought of prior to the season where there were still plenty of unknowns on his health (as is the case with all players... case in point with Bregman).
Correa brought a lot of hope that the tear it down philosophy was going to work. Of course Altuve and Keutchel accelerated the process, so that when Correa was called up, he was the catalyst that got them over the hump and into the 2015 playoffs. So in a way Correa was the face of the philosophical idea. Hence, I’m very favorable to bringing in Carlos Correa at or near market value.
He was a huge part of it. As was Springer… Yuli… then Bregman… then JV… then Cole… then Yordan… then Tucker. The Astros have resources. More-so if they have another deep playoff run. Who they want to tie up long term, and whether or not that player makes sense to tie up long term, still remain on a host of factors. The previous narrative on Correa was no long term deal due to the inability to stay healthy for a full season. Of course he’s trying his best to squelch that by continuing to put the back from 2018 behind him (I know there was a flare in 2019 soon after the rib fracture, but his new regimen has provided stability over the last 2 years).
You don’t care about 7 years out. By then the competitive window will be closed- you trade him away and eat some money while you do a rebuild and strip it down to the studs. Or, you are still miraculously in your competitive window and you are happy to have him. This isn’t hard.
Yea, that's now how the Astros feel at all.... They believe in their player evaluation and development to continually fill their roster with young talent from the draft and international signings. Crane has zero interest in another rebuild with an empty stadium for 4 years.
After the Astros’ trade acquisitions, they have two months to figure out the best version of their bullpen https://theathletic.com/2752185/202...figure-out-the-best-version-of-their-bullpen/ On paper, the Astros have a much better bullpen than they did two weeks ago. The next task for manager Dusty Baker, pitching coach Brent Strom and the front office is to figure out who can be trusted and in which situations. Two months separate the AL West leaders from the postseason, when the more frequent off days allow teams to ride their best relievers early and often. In October, starting pitchers are on notice after 18 batters, if not sooner. Many playoff games turn into a battle of the bullpens. So who will be in the Astros’ circle of trust come the end of the regular season? The final 50-plus games will lend ample opportunities for the team to learn about its new arms. Here’s where things stand: Go-to arms in the highest-leverage situations Ryan Pressly Though he’s given up a couple of home runs lately, Pressly has still been one of the best relievers in baseball this season. Both of his power breaking balls are absolutely filthy and make him dominant against either right-handed or left-handed hitters. Baker has said he’s going to continue to use Pressly as his closer. But come the postseason, he should not hesitate to use him earlier in games if the situation calls for it. Because he’s so hard to hit, Pressly is probably more valuable in a 2019 Will Harris-esque fireman role than he is being saved for a possible save situation in the ninth inning. Kendall Graveman Graveman, the Astros’ big trade deadline acquisition, has been dominant this season, too. His turbo sinker is his best asset; he hasn’t given up an extra-base hit on it all year. The sinker combined with an improved slider has made him especially nasty against right-handed hitters. He might need to mix in more four-seam fastballs to neutralize lefties. The Astros can use Graveman anywhere from the sixth to the ninth. Basically, they should match him up against the other team’s best pocket of right-handed hitters. He pitched on back-to-back days with the Mariners only four times this season, so the Astros might be similarly cautious with his usage before October. Middle relief Ryne Stanek Despite his high walk rate (14.5 percent), Stanek’s 97 mph fastball and splitter make him one of the Astros’ best weapons on his good days. He’s better against right-handed hitters, but he’s not a total liability against lefties because of the splitter. His high standing in Baker and Strom’s bullpen hierarchy was evident on Tuesday night, when Stanek got the save against the Dodgers with Pressly on paternity leave and Graveman having already been used for the middle of the order in the eighth inning. Cristian Javier Javier is a starter trying to make it work as a reliever, and while the cumulative results are good, his command has wavered a lot more out of the bullpen than it did when he was in the rotation. Still, his fastball-slider combo can be dominant, especially against right-handed hitters. His multi-inning ability is a major asset, and that the Astros are now comfortable bringing him in during the middle of an inning is a potential game-changer. Phil Maton The Astros gave up their starting center fielder in Myles Straw for Maton, so his performance in August and September will probably be scrutinized more than the other middle relievers. His swinging-strike rate (17.0 percent coming into Wednesday) is elite, but his overall performance by ERA (4.36) has been only slightly above average. He’s got a really good curveball he’ll throw to both righties and lefties, and a slider he throws more to righties. His fastball sits in the low 90s but it has a high spin rate and he pitches up in the zone, which is an Astros staple. Blake Taylor Taylor is the team’s best lefty reliever, and the Astros figure to deploy him mostly against left-handed hitters. He’s been a lot worse against right-handed hitters this season after holding his own against them last year. His fastball, which averages 93 mph, accounts for a vast majority of his strikeouts this season. His big strikeout of Max Muncy in Tuesday night’s seventh inning was actually the first time he’s struck out a left-handed hitter on his slider all season. Yimi García García is another option for the Astros to deploy against right-handed hitters, especially if he increases the usage of his low-90s cutter. Lefties hit him pretty hard during his time with the Marlins this season, so he will have to make an adjustment to climb the bullpen hierarchy. Bryan Abreu Abreu is probably going to find himself shuttled between the majors and Triple A quite often because he has minor-league options and others do not, but he’s still got a good chance to pitch in the postseason because of his power breaking ball. You could do a lot worse than Abreu for a seventh or eighth man in a bullpen. A total mystery Pedro Báez The Astros’ offseason signing of Báez for two years and $12.5 million has been a disaster. The ex-Dodger has yet to pitch for his new team because of shoulder inflammation, and his upper-80s and low-90s velocity readings on his fastball during his minor-league rehab assignment breed pessimism that he’s going to be an impact arm this season. Báez, who could be activated any day now, might be able to survive if he can run it up to 92-93 mph because of his changeup. If he does that, maybe he sneaks into being serviceable in middle relief. But the Astros are clearly not counting on him, as demonstrated by their four reliever acquisitions before the trade deadline. The depth options Rafael Montero While he was viewed as a throw-in to the Abraham Toro-Graveman trade, the Astros are intrigued by Montero’s stuff and believe they might be able to help him improve. He doesn’t have minor-league options, and he has another year before free agency via the salary arbitration process, so he’s probably on the roster in the regular season for as long as he’s not awful. As a project, Montero will be one of the more interesting Astros relievers to watch down the stretch. He throws hard (his fastball averages 95 mph), has a promising mid-80s slider and a changeup for lefties. Brooks Raley The oft-maligned Raley has stuck around to this point because he’s left-handed and his underlying stats suggest he’s pitched much better than his 6.39 ERA. His FIP, for example, is almost three runs lower, at 3.54. But he also doesn’t have minor-league options remaining, and he could fall victim to a 40-man roster crunch this month. Josh James James got squeezed out by the trade deadline acquisitions, so the Astros kept him in Triple A once he completed his minor-league rehab assignment. He might be stuck there unless injuries strike the major-league bullpen or he’s called up when rosters expand to 28 in September. Right now, it’s difficult to envision him cracking a postseason roster. Brandon Bielak Bielak is solid as a seventh or eighth reliever in the regular season, especially since he can pitch multiple innings. He has a good fastball and he throws strikes, too. But after the recent acquisitions, Bielak is back in Triple A and in a similar position to James. He might get some innings in August or September, but he’s unlikely to pitch in the postseason. Andre Scrubb On the injured list since July 19 because of a shoulder strain, Scrubb figures to be optioned to Triple A upon his activation. He was hit hard in his second major-league season after a solid rookie campaign in the shortened 2020 season.
It appears that Crane has other thoughts about eating money in uncompetitive seasons when he could otherwise strip payroll down to the studs.
