MLB.com has him at #45 and they said he's been closing for Stanford but COULD project as a starter or at worst a setup man? A college reliever is exactly what we don't need with our first round pick
From what I've been reading, the kid has electric stuff with two dynamite pitches and a third on the come so at least he projects nicely...helps being a lefty. Problem is what you stated, he MIGHT become a starter?!? With all the power arms that are going to be right there for the taking, I don't understand why they are reaching for this kid...massive reach. I just got finished typing how they couldn't mess this draft up with so many guys right there and then this comes through...
I thought Heck and Wade were all about "best player available"?...that coincidentally always happens to be an industry overdraft that will sign at or close to slot. The mere fact that they are talking about a predraft deal indicates it's not about bpa because if it was drafting him wouldn't hinge on him agreeing to a certain deal. They would just draft him cause he's the bpa.
Last time I remember the Astros pretty much locked in on a guy before the draft was Max Sapp, he turned out to be pretty solid haha. Back to Chris Reed, ESPN has him at #69 and here's the scouting report... Summary : Projected #2 or #3? Sounds like our type of guy
Keith Law (twitter) on the Chris Reed to Houston at 11 rumor: Yes. Not in their mix at 11, I'm told. RT @mwash1983 @keithlaw Is Reed to Houston at 11 a reach? Asked a FO guy where a certain crazy rumor started. Answer: "somewhere on the Internet" https://twitter.com/#!/keithlaw Hope he's right
Now Piliere is saying: FrankiePiliere Frankie Piliere For what it's worth, the Astros are denying the Chris Reed report. Sources can be wrong. They reached out to me directly to shoot it down http://twitter.com/#!/FrankiePiliere
FWIW, the last guy they 'reached' for was Lyles. People at the time were freaking out about it because he wasn't even in the second round in most mock drafts. That seems to have worked out OK. And at the time people around here thought the Astros got a steal with Ross Seaton in second, since he showed up as a first rounder in the mock drafts.
FWIW, the last guy they reached for was Delino Deshields Jr and he's been terrible this season in low A.
No, they didn't. Before the Astros started talking about him, he was showing up in mock drafts between about 15 and 30 in the last couple of weeks leading up to the draft.. Five or ten slots hardly counts as a pick from completely out of left field, at least in my book. If there was a reach last year it was Kvanska (or however you spell it). Before the draft, he was projected in the second or third in everything I saw.
How they "reach" on DeShields? Just because some fired ex scout Frankie Piliere and fired ex assistant GM Keith Law have a player ranked differentely doesn't mean they are right. And Deshields is still only 18 years old so it's too early to call him a bust. Trust me I want Ed Wade fired as much of as anyone so I am not trying to defend him.
Low A, first year in pro-ball, 18 y/o. Learning a new position while learning to hit in professional bball, sounds like he should be having a tough transition. Give him 2 or 3 years before you call him a bust.
Why wouldn't he not be in that category? Heck he should be below them. He has been here 4 years and the farm system has made minimal progress. He still continues to overvalue utility players, bench players, middle relievers, etc.
huh??? then what's your definition of reaching? reaching is when you draft a player significantly higher than the scouts/mocks project him to go. 10+ picks earlier than they are projected, when you are talking about the top 10 picks of the draft, is definitely considered reaching. nobody said it means the projections are right, just that it was a reach.
No where did I say he was a bust, merely that he is performing sub-par which is entirely the truth. Whether he ultimately busts or not, most scouts were in agreement that he wasn't a top 10 talent. Thus the pick was a reach. Y'all are making it sound like I hope he busts. That's ridiculous. I hope he does well and makes an impact for the Stros but it doesn't change the rationale of the pick. Reaches do work out some times guys, don't equate reach with bust. That's an enormous leap to jump from low teen's into the top 10. To put it in perspective that would be a difference in total contract of $15-$20m for a first round pick in the NFL. The 1st round of the MLB draft for better or worse is usually BPA. Because the time between drafting and the majors is so long, there's usually little sense in not taking the best talent. It's the 1s to 3rd rounds where mocks typically go out the window (much like the NFL). That's the range where maybe not every scout has seen each player and thus opinions/draft boards vary. So if the Stros reach for a player at the top of the first round I'll be pissed because there's generally a consensus on that player. Every round after that is a 'meh' because that's where draft boards are really variable.
In the two or three months leading up to the draft, players regularly moved far more than that. Player rankings aren't some sort of absolute Platonic ideal. Obviously, at least one group of scouts had him ranked in the top ten. IIRC a team two or three slots behind the Astros was supposedly going to take him if the Astros passed. And I'm equally sure there were teams that wouldn't have taken him until the second or third round. Look at the OF in this year's draf from UConn. Depending on who is speaking, he is either a top ten pick, or a borderline supplimental guy. If you polled 1,000 different mlb scouts, I'd hope you'd find 1,000 different assessments. I believe you are placing far too much faith in meaningless mock drafts. If the people putting these drafts together were all that and a bag of chips, they'd have jobs with mlb teams for 10x the salary. Ten slots, even at the top of the draft, is normal variability existing in differing perspectives and viewpoints.
