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[Astros 2009] Where do we go from here?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by The Cat, Sep 28, 2008.

  1. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    I did one of these after the season last year, and bored at work (warning: long post), figured it's worth another one. BrooksBall did a good job the other day summarizing our salary situation, so no need to go through that again.

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=3913366#post3913366

    Bottom line: Given contracts we have and arbitration, we're looking at $85-$90 million to bring back the majority of the team we have now, which we'll do. The highest payroll Drayton's had to open a season was around 92-93 million, but with escalating salaries, attendance and coming so close this year, it's a reasonable assumption that Drayton will go slightly beyond that this time. All in all, there will probably be $10-$13 million budgeted for free agents.

    I think we can also assume there won't be a radical change in the direction of this team. Yes, there's a logical case to trade some of our bigger contracts tied up in older players to try and rebuild the farm -- but it's not happening. If it didn't happen at the deadline, when things looked incredibly bleak -- it's not going to happen after the run this team made, and the likelihood that the Brewers won't be nearly as strong next year.

    So, what do we do with that money, or any potential trades? First, I think it's important to look at the things we learned, good and bad.

    1. Wandy is legit; Backe is not. Yes, he had his share of injuries, but a 3.54 ERA is legit. That's two straight seasons of a 1.35 WHIP or better for Wandy, with an ERA of league average or substantially better both times. Yes, he struggles putting batters away, he's prone to the occasional mental meltdown, and his small frame is somewhat conducive to injuries. That's why he's not a top of the line starter. But his peripherals show that the ERA is no fluke: he's a legitimate No. 3 or 4 starter. If you want to be optimistic, you can pencil in Oswalt at 1, Wandy at 3 and Moehler or a similar pitcher at 5.

    2. Miguel Tejada is average, offensively and defensively. The downside, he's clearly past the point in his career that he's a legitimate option at 3, 4, or 5 in the lineup. He'll give you a .280-.300 average with 15-20 homers, but almost no OBP. The upside is that his defense wasn't nearly what most people feared -- it was perfectly passable. Thus, while he won't be a game changer, SS isn't a position to worry about either.

    3. Jose Valverde is legit. Despite the early struggles and semi-high ERA (for a closer), you can chalk most of that up to bad luck. 10 homers (worst ratio of his career) and a very good 1.18 WHIP tells you he'll be even better next year.

    4. This team was lucky. While Pythagorean records aren't flawless, and teams can overachieve with an airtight bullpen and situational hitting... they do mean something. By run differential, this should have been a 77-win team. Does that mean we can't contend next year? Nope, especially not if the Brewers decline as expected. But it does mean bringing back the status quo probably won't produce the same result, especially with so many older players. Upgrades do have to be made.

    5. Matsui is good, but he'll only give you 100 games. Chronic back injuries don't go away, but Matsui is a very good player when healthy. Great defense, .350-.360 OBP, tons of speed, good situational hitter, some extra-base pop = very solid leadoff option. But, with the injuries, you have to assume he'll miss at least 50 games. Fortunately, we have quality options like Loretta and Newhan, and it needs to stay that way.

    6. Wigginton stays. I know a lot of people didn't like the trade when it happened, but his pull approach is a great fit for MMP. Under club control, reasonably cheap, and OPS over .800 at third make it an easy decision.

    7. Hunter Pence isn't a superstar. He's got enormous raw talent, but he's too much of a free-swinger to be in the Ryan Braun class that we suspected he belonged in a year ago. He'd be an above average CF, but in RF, he's fairly run of the mill right now.
     
    #1 The Cat, Sep 28, 2008
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2008
  2. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Given the above, I think we're set at the following positions:

    1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, either CF/RF, three starting pitchers, and a closer

    Now, the dicey issues -- CF and catcher. What would you guys do with Bourn and Towles? Hopefully, the farm will produce long-term answers in a couple of years, but to contend in the short-term, do you give them another shot? Quintero is what he is -- good gamecaller, laser arm, but terrible bat. Erstad is what he is -- good situational pinch-hitter, but he'll lose effectiveness as an everyday starter.

    This is where it gets interesting. Most folks say they'd spend the $10-$13 million on Sheets, and I'm one of them. I think the way to build a team these days is to focus free agency on superstar talents instead of mid-level guys, and to try to get league-average production from cheap from within the team. But if you sign Sheets, you're essentially committing to solving CF and C from within the organization for the near future. Is that something you're willing to do?

    If you'd prefer to go after hitters in free agency, is moving Pence back to CF a consideration? I'd do it -- his value would increase exponentially as a hitter, and he was definitely league average at worst out there. But I haven't heard any serious consideration from Astros braintrust on that. Assuming he stays at RF, what's the CF and/or catching situation on the free agent market?

    The only thing I for sure don't want this team to do is to sign a couple of mid-level pitchers. These days, you're better off committing to one expensive guy (Sheets) and betting on a random cheap guy in your organization having a league average season out of nowhere (Moehler) than two $6 or $7 million guys, because the pitchers that go at that rate really don't do much more than Moehler did this year, if at all.

    Anyway, would love to hear thoughts on all this. Assume you have $10-$15 million to play with, and that Drayton won't let you radically change the construction of the team. Given those parameters and the obvious question marks (starting pitching, middle relief, C, CF), what do you do?
     
  3. Baqui99

    Baqui99 Contributing Member

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    I think we should sign Shawn Chacon. : )
     
  4. Refman

    Refman Contributing Member

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    Bourn started to turn it around a little over the last few weeks. The idea at thus point is for him to play winter ball to get some ABs and to develop a some plate discipline. If he were able to be more selective, he would walk more and have a higher average. He is deadly on the basepaths.

    We will have to see how that works out.

    At catcher, I am at a loss. My assumption is that Q is your everyday guy.

    SP...I would sign Sheets and see if you can get Wolf to re-sign or get an incentive laden deal for Hampton. Either of them would make a good end of the rotation guy. If you could sign Wolf, Hampton, and Sheets, that would be ideal but may not be realistic.
     
  5. Alimoe84

    Alimoe84 Member

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    I'll pass on Sheets. I'd try and make a run at a Jon Garland or Derek Lowe. If we could land one of those guys, I'd take Hampton at reasonable price. I know he's been injury prone too over the years, but he could be a low-risk, high-reward type of signing. Oswalt/Lowe/Wandy/Hampton/Backe.

    I'm not ready to give up on Michael Bourn just yet. This is the same organization that stood behind the likes of Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg for way too long. I'm confident that Bourn has learned a lot this season and if he has as much pride as I think he does, he'll come back strong.


    Keep Moehler. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season we'd be looking forward to this guy pitching in crucial games? He proved this season that he can still get it done. He was one of the most valuable players on the team this year. He's also good insurance with guys like Backe and Wandy around.
     
  6. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    What's wrong with Wandy? (hmmm, a question that contains 4 words all starting with 'w')
     
  7. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    I won't speak for Alimoe, but what worries me about Wandy is durability. 137 innings or fewer in three of his four seasons, with various little injuries (oblique) every month or so to take him out for 2-3 weeks. I really worry about his frame. He's a good pitcher, but I like having guys like Moehler around who you can count on to make their starts... because with Wandy, you can count on various call-ups having to fill in around a third of the season. Kind of like Matsui.
     
  8. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Bring up Castro and plug him in and quit wasting time.

    Sign Sheets.

    Sign Garland.

    Get a new batting coach that can actually teach plate discipline.

    Draft another pitcher in the first round.
     
  9. Major

    Major Member

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    I'd avoid Sheets unless it's a very short-term contract (2 years?). If he wants the standard superstar 4-6 year deal, run as quickly as possible. He has non-stop health issues and you'd be locking in wasted money for many years.

    And no, I don't have a better option, unfortunately!
     
  10. JunkyardDwg

    JunkyardDwg Contributing Member

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    Like we did with Towles?


    The team needs better pitching...I think Oswalt and Wandy and Moehler have merited a spot in the rotation (and Moehler possibly in the pen). I think the team should look to bring back Wolf and sign a "Sheets" caliber pitcher. And it is time let Backe go...maybe the team can use him in a trade scenario I dunno.

    Unless Wade can continue his string of successes in the trade market, I don't see this team upgrading CF and catcher...I would like to see one of them improved...but I'm gonna remain pessimistic about that actually happening. Pitching should be the priority...and after that I just don't see the team having enough money to sign a FA position player. And they don't have much to trade.
     
  11. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    I hear he is a "free swinger".
     
  12. WoodlandsBoy

    WoodlandsBoy Contributing Member

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    I would love to get love to bring back Wolf, get Lowe (3yrs 36mil)

    Rotation
    1) Oswalt
    2) Lowe
    3) Wolf
    4) Wandy
    5) Moehler

    Bring back Backe as long relief 6th starter
    Sampson as 7th starter

    Bring back Valverde, Hawkins, Brocail, Geary, Wright

    Get Brian Giles for RF (2yrs 20mil)

    1. Matsui
    2. Tejada
    3. Berkman
    4. Lee
    5. Giles
    6. Wiggy
    7. Pence
    8. Q
     
  13. OldManBernie

    OldManBernie Old Fogey

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    How much would Oliver Perez command in the open market? He's young, and he has the stuff to be a top-shelf pitcher. At the age of 27, he ought to be at his prime now. Perez has had his share of the injury bug, but has managed to relatively healthy these past two years. I think he is worth a look at the #2 spot along with Sheets and Garland if the price is right.
     
  14. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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  15. MadMax

    MadMax Contributing Member

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    We go to the World Series. love my 'stros...

    The last day of the season sucks...whether it ends in the postseason or in the regular season. About 5 months till pitchers and catcher report.
     
  16. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Just a note: If we sign Sheets, or any Type A, we lose our 1st rd pick. Finishing in the top 15 fulfilled the worst nightmare for many of us.

    As far as spending money goes, I think that every dollar McLane is willing to spend after re-signing the likes of Pence, Wigginton, Wandy, Valverde, Geary, etc... should go toward starting pitching. I'm on the fence about Sheets because I expect him to want too many years but he's probably the best available SP in our price range. After that, there are guys like Lowe, Garland, Wolf, maybe Burnett if he opts out. We need to grab at least one good SP out of free agency. Two would be great if McLane opens up his wallet.

    There isn't much available as far as free agent catchers. We'll have to hope that Towles/Quintero can suffice while looking for Castro to step up in 2-3 years.

    Bourn is interesting. Despite the low AVG, OBP, etc..., he finished 2nd or 3rd on the team in pitches per plate appearance. That means he showed patience at the plate. The problem is that he doesn't get that all-important Ball 4 enough and when he does swing, he strikes out a lot. I don't know if it is poor mechanics or something else but he simply needs to get more balls in play on top of getting more walks. We know he is a good defensive player and has tremendous speed. There are a few good options out there in free agency but I think we should spend that money on pitching and give Bourn another look at CF.

    Here is a list of 2009 FAs by position: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html
     
  17. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    i think this sums the astros up nicely: they have too many "No. 3 or 4 starter" types, both in their rotation and everyday line-up; too many guys who could go either way (good or bad), which makes it difficult to build a team.

    in 2007, too many of those players played below expectations; this year, more than expected played above expectations.

    moving forward, they have three legitimate horses*; outside of that, who on this team can you count on? their 4th best player is probably wiggington (maybe valverde), but he fits the "No. 3 or 4 starter" description to a T - the definition of average his entire career, he throws together a pretty solid '08... so what will the encore be? would anyone put $$ on their prediction?

    it was a fun year; i admire mclane's commitment to win; i think wade, given the mandate and its parameters, did a bang-up job jettisoning worthless players and getting back better players. but '08 felt like they pulled a rabbit out their hat, and i think it'd be a mistake to go into '09 thinking this is a foundation good enough to compete.

    (* all past 30, and two of which - oswalt and berkman - who have both battled inconsistency the past two years)
     
  18. Dennis2112

    Dennis2112 Contributing Member

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    I agree Ric but I think the main thing they need is pitching...mostly starting pitching ( front of the rotation guys, 2's and 3's).

    Also need some bullpen help.
     
  19. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Here is the quote from Sheets after last just a few innings Saturday:

    ""That's all I had," Sheets said. "I got a broke arm, I got a broke arm. It's not really broke, but it's all I had for the year. Things definitely don't look like they're on my side.""

    For all of his greatness, this was his highest win total (13) ever (I know that is more of a reflection of his team then of him) and highest inning total (198) in 4 years. He pittched 156, 106 and 141 the previous three seasons.
     
  20. Storm Surge

    Storm Surge Rookie

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    Sheets is injury prone he is not worth giving big money to IMO. Sabathia is the only guy I would break the bank for.

    Let Bourn get another shot, he has shown some plate discipline and has pop in his bat. He plays good defense and on the bases he can change games.
     

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