Assessing the trade value of the Rockets players in terms of this Draft

If we land outside the top 2, I say try to package any of Wood, EG, or Tate with whatever pick we get. We really need to ensure we get Jabari or Chet and check off that power forward position.

I don’t really care if Stone practically gives them away. We just really need to clear roster spots for the kids. I don’t care if we don’t exactly “win” the trade as long as Wood, Gordon, & Tate is off the roster

 

Rockets aside from playmaking needs a lot of defenders, inside and outside. Everybody talks of offense but a lot of teams are making long defenders a premium. KPJ and JG are below average defender right now. Keep one and jettison the other for a 3&D player. Tate's too small. He belongs to the bench. He and Garrison will thrive there as the 2nd unit. Sengun needs to have more strength and lose a little bit of weight. Wood needs to go. I hope the FO can trade for picks or players with more defense.

 

Another issue that should be mentioned is his upcoming RFA status. KPJ will be a RFA in 2023 and will expect a rather large pay increase from his current 8 million over 4 years contract. He could than only be viewed as a rental if his play doesn't match his view of his own worth.

 

yes, the impending RFA status, his lapses of maturity, his lack of ability to play the point, and poor fit with Green are plenty enough reasons to turn the page and focus on Nix, a potential resigning of Schroeder, and/or addressing the position through trade, free agency, or the draft.

if he’s not gonna be a distraction I’m all for bringing him off the bench to build his value back up, but we need to move on from him as our starting PG. That should be obvious to everybody by now.

 

The hype of some draft picks and undervaluation of Sengun is ridiculous at this point.

I love Jaden Ivey, have him top 3/4, and think he can be a multiple time all star. However, he hasn't played a single minute in the NBA and you never know with NBA prospects even if they're "can't miss". Michael Beasley, Fultz, Wiseman, Josh Jackson, Jabari Parker, etc. What about Kris Dunn, who has similar measurements and style of play?

Some of you would take a pick lower than 10 for Sengun? This is absolutely ridiculous.

First of all, you cannot compare the best draft in the past 25 years and say Sengun would be picked #7-8 in a redraft. 2021 draft has 7 of top 8 picks with potential for multiple all-stars, which hasn't happened since maybe 1995 with the Iverson draft. Sengun would go top 5 in multiple redrafts including 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019, and possibly 2014, 2018 and 2020. That's just the past 10 years.

The knock on Sengun before the draft was he can't stay on the floor as a defender. While he does make mistakes on both ends, he is already a plus defender as a rookie, which is difficult to achieve. He is avg 1.6 stls and 1.7 blks per 36, which is excellent for a center. He will never be an elite defender due to poor lateral quickness and lack of wingspan. The knock has been allowing quick defenders to blow by, but Embiid, Jokic, and Gobert are similar.

The most important thing is Sengun has potential to be an offensive hub while playing at least average to above average defense. These type of players are the rarest in the NBA. He has already shown elite post game and elite vision/passing skills for a post, which is needed for post season success. If he can develop an adequate 3 point shot, then he becomes untouchable in trades. Poor man's Jokic is still at least a championship level starter and possible all star.

Remember, Sengun is 19 years old. He will get better. This is not someone you trade for a lowly pick. He needs to return at least a top 5 pick, but I'm not trading him unless it's Chet, Jabari, and possibly Ivey.

 

Kevin Porter Jr. (late 1st to early 2nd) - hardest to evaluate. Team would need to feel that they have the right structure in place to keep his head straight, but he's shown the ability to create off the dribble, catch and shoot, and play good D. I don't see him washing out of the league, but hard to see a team give up a quality 1st for such a volatile character. What $ does he go for this summer? If we get him for <$11 MM per year on a short-term deal, I thiiiiiiink we won't regret it

Christian Wood (mid 1st) - great offensive finisher, soft soft soft defender, definitely not a leader. On a great value contract, but that is mitigated the closer his deal is to expiring. Teams with a strong defensive concept and good offensive creators (PHX, GSW) would be hard-pressed to find a better fit. Gimme Moses Moody and we can call it a day.

Jae'Sean Tate (mid to late 1st) - incredible hustle, solid defender, creative passer and finisher, inconsistent shot. Can be a great role player on a winning team, but hard to play with several non-shooters. On a dirt cheap deal too. Great attitude and juuuust young enough to grow with the core, but I'd prefer to cash out here

Eric Gordon (mid to late 1st) - Shocked he wasn't dealt at the deadline. Large cap number, but is effectively an expiring after this year, so that's less of an impediment to a deal. Great target for a playoff team to make a run due to his ability to play off of stars and also create on his own - would immediately be part of most contenders' top 5 players once acquired. Wtf are they waiting for??

Alperen Sengun: (top 5 pick) - offensive savant (my god those passes), quick hands, but often out position on D and the jumper needs a lot of work. Love love love him as a facilitator. But if you can get Ivey/Chet/Smith/Banchero for him, I think you have to do it

KJ Martin (late 1st) - unbelievable bounce, respectable set shooter, shows a lot of promise on defense and as a screener. Doesn't show much ability to shoot or create off the dribble. On a dirt cheap and long term deal. I am really bullish on him and it would be tough to let him go. Let him grow with the youngns!

Garrison Mathews (late 2nd) - fringe NBA player. Love the hustle and the shot, but he gets pushed around on defense. On a dirt cheap and long term deal, so no rush to trade him. If you have a target late in the draft (KJ was drafted in the 50s), easy trade to make

 

Well said. Sengun will eventually be better than Sabonis...if he gets minutes and/or starts that could very well happen next season.

 

Now that the season is over:

Sengun - top 5 pick
KPJ - top 10 pick
KJ Martin - mid 1st rounder
Tate - late 1st rounder
Christopher - top 10 pick
Wood - lotto pick
Gordon - late 1st rounder
Garuba - mid 1st rounder

 

Reading these replies is why I stopped reading most replies lol

 

I would offer Wood, Tate & Mathews to Charlotte if Jeremy Sochan is still on the board. The Hornets have a lot of free agents and could possibly take them all with just the pick in return. We should keep the Nets pick for other needs even though it may move down even further with the play in => Long 3&D => the other Baylor kid K. Brown would be a perfect fit.

 

Sengun isn’t a plus defender… especially if he is going to play the 5.

I like him as a prospect and as a top of the rotation off the bench player. He can play make, he can rebound and get to the line… he will even eventually be a decent outside shooter even… but he isn’t really much of a defensive presence in the lane or inside, and he isn’t good enough at switching to overcome those limitations. The only chance he has to be worthy of a top 5 pick as a player is if he is next to someone like Holmgren or Wembanyama…. Which is actually possible, as the Rockets may end up with one of them.

Banchero on the Rockets would be the end of Sengun ever starting because a frontline of those two would defensively be a disaster (but very good offensively)…. I would say drafting Ivey would harm Sengun too because the Rockets would likely target long and athletic players at the 4/5, but it’s possible the Rockets would want a guy to create inside…. Adding Smith slightly helps Sengun.

 

Nook, I respect your opinion, but which stats prove your thesis that he isn't a plus defender? His steal % is higher than Dwight Howard's career average and better than most centers. His DBPM is 0.6, which is above average. DBPM is one of the best indicators (easily available) we have for individual defense. I know it doesn't account for opponent shooting as well and DRPM or DRAYMOND may be better, but these are not available to me.

I hope you're not using defensive rating or a 5 man rotation rating as your core basis, as these are largely team stats with minor individual effects.

Agree that he has limitations on defense, as most offensively gifted players do (or they're superstars). What exactly do you mean by he "really isn't much of a defensive presence in the land or inside"? Blocking shots?

Sengun plays very good positional defense, draws charges, is an above average ISO defender, has high IQ on defense, and great awareness. He definitely needs to get better in all areas such as not reaching, not chasing blocks, and just learning a different system than euro style basketball. While he doesn't block shots, he gets deflections and steals at higher rates than other centers. Also, it's okay to not be great at switching. The centers that are elite at switching are usually thin 4/5s that may perform even worse with elite offensive centers like Embiid/Jokic.

Agreed with your take on Banchero. This is why I don't want him because we can't play Sengun, Banchero, and Green together unless we have 2 elite 3/D players rounding out the roster.

How does drafting Ivey hurt Sengun? Since Ivey isn't a pass 1st PG and you can run your offense through Sengun, Ivey will have less pressure to operate the offense efficiently. Since he has potential to be an elite defender, it would not hinder your build. I do agree that we will definitely need a long 3/D player at the 4, but I'm not willing to pass up a potential 2 way all star in Ivey if we pick after 2.

 

I take all defensive statistics with a grain of salt, because there are too many outliers listed and known good defenders excluded by virtually all of them. We just don’t have good enough defensive statistics yet… too many variables, especially for players that play inside. Ultimately I look at defensive statistics and compare it to tape (if I am interested enough because it takes a lot of time). I have done it with Sengun and he really isn’t respected as a deterrent in the paint. He isn’t the worst, and he does hustle and give effort and that helps some. However he is below average and not playable in certain match ups… last year before the draft I said the claims that Sengun had no ability to switch and lacked any lateral mobility were false… and that has proven to be true, he IS better laterally than what even scouts were saying, and he IS playable defensively… he just can be exposed. The issue I have is the narrative amongst Rockets fans has become he is a plus defender…. And I can’t agree with that at all…. With the right team around him I think he can be a long term starter, but I am not convinced the Rockets will have the right defenders to do that… so I view him as a 6th or 7th man.

If the Rockets draft Ivey, you will likely see them pursue 4/5’s that can really get out in transition, finish lobs and not clog the lane. That doesn’t really fit Sengun. Also the Rockets are going to want the ball in the hands of Ivey or Green at the point of attack, and not Sengun… another reason I think Sengun would in that scenario lead the second unit long term.

I had Sengun in my top 8-10 last year and was happy with his rookie year. I like him, I just think he will be more of a situational player that gets 25-30 very productive minutes.

Ideally Sengun is surrounded by a mobile big that can block shots, switches well and communicates and doesn’t make a lot of mistakes… that is Holmgren or Mobley or the huge Frenchman.

As for Ivey, I am a huge fan and would not pass on him because of Sengun. It just would mean juggling things differently… and would mean the Nets pick would be used on an athletic post player.

 

I think about him in the context of someone like Kanter. He's already better than the "can't play Kanter" level defense but as you said, can be exploited in some matchups. I think he also frankly got challenged more than he should have because he's a rookie and held up better than expected. Still, as even folks like Rudy Gobert have found out, defense in the playoffs is a different beast.

I like the idea of him coming in as a change of pace substitute. There's a lot of value in being multiple offensively -- if Sengun can be a consistent spot up shooter and cook in the post like he's shown, there's a nice role for him on this team.

I believe he'll become a better rebounder as he adds some more strength.

 

Kpj has got to be worth more than eg at this point I think.

 

Just a reminder
Woods finished with 18 pts 10 rebounds 2 assists

Kpj 15 pts 6 assists

You are not getting that production from a 2nd rounder. I know we are kinda tired of wood but this guy with a pg that can really distribute is a borderline all-star bc guess what no one looks at defense if you are putting up 25 points a game like he is capable of putting up.

 

Wood's offensive production is a thing. I agree. Part of me wished... Silas tried more Nix/Wood combo, Schroder/Wood combo, or even Josh/Wood combo. Not to say either one of them is a lock, especially Schroder (unlikely), but understand if a certain "archetype" could unlock something.

The clock is ticking on when they have to make a hard decision.

 

Such Rubbish! Why would you want to trade your best player? Wood !

 

Wood at this point… with this organization and this coach …. Gives up as many negative plays as he provides positive plays… his lapses on defense, his complete lack of effort or willingness to communicate defensively or to properly switch will keep the Rockets from winning.

 

The Rockets aren’t trading Green