This is a pretty dangerous time. We had this virus under control and people are just being reckless partying and the protests may be a time bomb as the younger folks spread it to their elderly parents and grandparents. After all this caution and closing things down the recklessness is pretty alarming. People that are older and with weaker immune systems should isolate and protect themselves. The economy should re-open but those that are susceptible should really watch out for themselves and we should look out for those we hold dear.
Here are two interesting charts. A rebound is happening in a few states. For some states, looks like the timing was bad - local gov didn't wait long enough and/or the movement toward 're-opening' pushed the public to relax too early, causing the trend to continue (not a rebound as it never gotten flatten). So is this over? CDC is in hiding or suppressed?
My guess is that it'll happen when school starts in August/September. My guess is that many states will go ahead and send kids back due to pressure from politicians like Trump and Rand Paul. However, with the cooling temperatures as well as the petri dishes that schools are, look for a huge spike around then. I'm guessing Abbott and Patrick will go ahead and push for schools to reopen in the fall, consequences be damned, so I'm already looking into home-schooling options. Would make more sense if they would offer up a choice, but they probably won't.
Mostly agree. They'll want to do in-person school and it'll be flat impossible for school to not cause another spike in infections. I rather doubt the cooler temperatures will have much to do with it (the heat didn't seem to matter), but more time inside with other people and the intersection with the flu will make things worse. I think we may just gamble on the illness. Send the kids with masks and hand sanitizer and hope for the best. Online school was not effective. Don't know if they'd even try to offer it. I don't think I can do an adequate job of homeschooling given the kids' ages and my other responsibilities. So I think I'm stuck with what the schools decide to do. Here's my unsolicited amateur suggestion: Go to school in-person 1-2 days a week. Groups are staggered so the school is only 20-40% full any day of the week. Kids get their touchpoint with the teacher each week to keep them grounded, and then it's online school the other days. It's a lot how a lot of office work is done -- you have a weekly team meeting to make sure everyone is organized and then you go do your work. Maybe that's the worst of both worlds, but it's a lower infection risk than full school and it's a more effective teaching regimen than full online classes (and kids can see their friends' faces (behind masks) regularly).
My wife teaches a Christian pre-school. They are still trying to figure out what rules, processes and practices they will take when they open in the fall. So far they have landed on someone taking the temperature of each child before they enter the school building, eliminating some shared toys and learning areas, and teachers will wear masks (this is a preschool, so kids not seeing the teacher's mouth will slow their development).
Here's our daily anecdotal evidence for bigtexx... Number of Texans hospitalized with coronavirus hits all-time high as experts say cases are likely to continue increasing Texas Tribune Data released Tuesday by the Texas Department of State Health Services shows 2,056 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, up from 1,935 the day before. The previous high was May 5, when 1,888 people were hospitalized. The figures come a little more than a month since Abbott's statewide stay-at-home order ended and he began a phased reopening of businesses. It also comes about two weeks after Memorial Day. Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations up 36% since Memorial Day Houston Chronicle On Tuesday, the state reported 2,056 hospitalizations — the highest number since the pandemic first reached Texas in March. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told KSAT viewers in San Antonio that he is watching the data carefully to guide how much more the state can reopen businesses. While hospitalizations are up, Texas is still reporting more than 15,000 hospital beds available and almost 6,000 ventilators available. Texas sets record for second day in COVID-19 hospitalizations, Dallas County ties with record for cases WFAA - Dallas/Fort Worth According to data released Tuesday, there are 2,056 coronavirus hospitalizations in Texas up from 1,935 reported Monday. It's the same day that Dallas County tied for the highest number of positive COVID-19 cases with 298. Seven deaths were reported in the county Tuesday. The latest data released show statewide positivity rate climbed to 7.55% Saturday and lowered slightly to 7.11% Sunday. Travis County: New coronavirus cases break single-day record for second day in a row Austin American-Statesman Travis County officials on Tuesday confirmed 161 new cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total number of known cases to 3,976. Tuesday marks the second consecutive day in which the county breaks its previous record for new coronavirus cases reported in a single day. The county on Monday reported 118 new cases. The previous record was on June 1, when the county reported 88 new cases.
I can only speak to the district I teach in and the one my older son attends, but that seems to be the direction this is heading. And Houston ISD and Fort Bend being large districts, I would imagine others would follow that model. The school year is gonna be longer per the proposed schedule HISD released, with built in remedial days to account for time lost due to potential waves and school closures. And then you'll have some form of hybrid learning. Families that want to keep their students home will be allowed to do so, and schools will have staggered start times. Fort Bend is mulling several scenarios. Aside from doing nothing, the options would be to alternate in-person and remote learning every few days or every other week. To be honest, I would rather get back in the classroom in some form or other, rather than full-remote learning again. But then, I'm not in a high-risk group. I don't know what older, higher-risk teachers are gonna do if they have to return.
Thanks for the feedback, and good luck out there. On this last point, imagine being a kid going back to school despite the pandemic and one of your teachers gets coronavirus from the kids and dies. That's a tough life lesson. Given the scale we're talking about, it will happen at some schools.
It seems for school to re-open, one big question is ... to what degree do kids spread. And break that down into age group. If the chance is much lower for under 10, then re-open for all student under 10. Home schooling is tough as heck but it does get easier with older kids so... maybe some system where certain age group can be back, others should have some split of in-class and remote learning and some should only do remote learning. Anyhow, everyone has a short 2-4M to figure all this out.
My college is insisting that all in-person instruction will have instructors and students in masks. I think that's going to be super difficult and possibly worse than online stuff, but we'll see how it goes.
Here's an eye-opening but important informal case study for you (and everyone else). Pay attention. A private school here in Houston opened back up 9-10 days ago for childcare and other lesser services. So... you're talking reduced kids, reduced staff and reduced time onsite. This school, according to people on the inside, was genuinely operating under extreme caution. From all accounts, they did everything right. required masks at all times for staff (with true buy-in, not just "saying the right things") temperature checks for staff, students AND EVEN parents - daily (again, legitimate buy-in and execution) many hands-on tasks, like paperwork, migrated to digital social distancing for kids & staff (designated workspaces for kids) multiple deep cleanings per day This school shut down today or yesterday due to a positive case. It happened THAT FAST. Just look at the meat plants that were forced to stay open. I assume (perhaps foolishly) that they incorporated rigorous measures to stay safe (after initial failure and blowback), but, here we are, those workers are still getting sick and dying. I feel like.... if the virus is around. And you're in an enclosed box.... it's just a matter of time. 6 feet wont save you. A mask wont save you. People want to get out there and start LIVING LIFE. I get that. Go for it. But I feel like, if we can, staying remote whenever possible is the safest option.
would like to read more about it, if you have a link the NBA is about to go through an experiment too... a big one with thousands
Not to mention, I'm only talking about Texas! He's looking at the whole USA. Including the current data drivers of New York & New Jersey where cases are dropping. Remove those numbers from the USA calculation and you may see a dropping rock defy gravity. PS my daily data comes from a state agency daily email, which is why the links probably do not work
