What's the deal with the Garbajosa case? Haven't heard of that at all, someone update me please? Even if he decides to walk, the chances of us getting him are not all that high IMO. We can only offer the MLE due to us being over the cap, and I think some teams desperate for a true point guard are going to overpay somewhere in the 6-8 million region for a prospect like Calderon. We COULD offer BJax in a sign-and-trade, so that's hopeful to say the least. Battier ain't going nowhere. I believe management thinks Battier is a core piece of the puzzle and I agree. His moneyball stats are good, plus all contenders need a piece like Battier to hustle, play defense and knock down open shots. We will be a contender next season with Yao back. Like I said before, management is high on Landry. I don't think they will trade big for small in this case. As I said before, Calderon is a fast-developing prospect as a traditional point guard. If he isn't disenchanted with the Raptors, it is more likely that they will want to keep him and trade Ford instead, what with his injuries and all. Still, it's pretty much conjecture debating about who the Raptors will or won't trade. On our end, I'm pretty sure Landry, Brooks and Battier are all untouchable. However, Brooks might just be the least safe out of the 3 due to his size and relatively poor showings lately. BJax for Calderon straight up in an S&T might be possible, but it largely hinges on whether Toronto values Jackson's expiring contract enough to replace Calderon with him. And even then, they'd have 2 pint-sized guards who'd rather score first in TJ Ford and Bobby. Back to the topic at hand. I love what Rafer brings to the table but I really don't think he is starting material. Despite his recent showings, history suggests that this is the exception rather than the norm. You just don't find a wayward-shooting point guard who suddenly turns the corner and hits near All Star status at age 31. He's a very nice backup to have off the bench, but it's been proven time and again that his efficiency (or lack of shooting efficiency rather) gets exposed the more minutes he plays. A guy like Calderon is definitely the perfect replacement for Rafer, but since we only have Rafe now, let's just hope he gives us more games like tonight against the Kings than his normal clunkers as in the past few games.
I was dead wrong the last two years about Rafer not being able to improve. However it's also obvious how much his improvement was required.
It's still even less obvious if the improvement translates thru to playoff caliber ball. Creme de le creme opposing PG's with the opportunity to adjust for up to 7 games. I'm in wait and see mode before passing out the kudos.
Rafer is definitely the weakest link on the regular rotation. When he plays well, this team is very powerful.
If I was to believe all of this I would be saying that Rafer Alston is a first Class Point Guard!! Of Course I can't say this because he is not a Floor General as he in no way can be described as a Playmaker. Being the Playmaker of a Team is the primary function of one being called The Point Guard! Our Team could be made much better with a true Playmaking Point Guard and it would reduce the stress which is now being placed on Tracy McGrady as our only playmaker. However Rafer had a great game last night and I am proud of him!
kiddo, what do you mean by "consistent"? Rafer is a 13/5 PG. Rafer is giving you the exact numbers you know he's capable of. I dont see any inconsistency there. Or, your meaning of "consistent" is that Rafer should give you 13/5 (his average) every night. 1st, that's not going to happen. 2nd, it doesnt help the Rockets to win more games. You want an upgrade, I am all for it. Name your choice of 5 million bucks. To be honest, I want D Will on the Rockets too. But I just dont know how the Rockets can get D will.
13/5 is pretty good (ok maybe that 5 asists per game is not enough for me) But as you saw. Rafer was red hot against Lakers, than next 5-6 games he couldn't make any outside shoot and now against Kings he had a great night again. I don't expect 25 points from him every night (we have T-Mac) I just expect him to shoot the ball pretty well (especially with those looks that he's had). If he can get 13/5 every night on 45% 50 % I'm ok with it. But I don't wanna games like 4/15, or something like that. Of course it may haoppen sometimes but not 6 times in a row. And again, I expect him to play well in the playoffs, that's the key.
Good stuff jopatmc. I think everyone realizes how critical Rafer's performance is to Rocket's success. As Rockets fans we are all hoping that he takes his improved play as of late into playoffs. But at the same time we will all be holding our breath each time Rafer steps up to shoot. Personally I would rather not go in the big stage with this kind of uncertainty. We still need to upgrade the PG situation for next season. Once everyone is back and healthy, Rafer is still the weakest link in the starting lineup.
no doubt rafer's play is critical to the team's success. some even say the team will go as far as rafer does. the other side of the equation is, this can be interpreted as our pg pisition is a weak spot. if a team have no appareant holes, it will usually find a way to win - as opposed to going as far as a certain non-star player goes.
All you have is bullcrap. Rafer is a career 38% shooter and now you want his shooting % to increase 7%. If Rafer is producing 13/5 every nights, the win/loss should be more or less the same. So, what's the gain there? Rafer is as consistent as you can get. CD and Morey knew what they traded for.
man, you have to run a linear regression model to determine who is the most important piece. all of those individual statistics do not account for other factors. for example, if we develop a logistic regression model with Win/Lose (1/0) as the outcome variable. using variables such as minutes, opponents, home/away, night/day game, blah blah blah, then we will find the "most" important piece. if anyone have the full season data up to this point, i can give it a shot when i get a chance.
Seriously, "45 or 50%" is just NOT going to happen. You can just give up that pipe dream right now, because it's ridiculous. If Rafer can continue to float at or above 40% for the rest of the season (and I predicted after his red hot run that he would cool off, and end up leveling out at about 40%, actually), then I will be content... assuming he also manages to shoot that clip in the playoffs... *gulp*.
morey sure has done that. the output of his model says it's the weather of the game day. when it rains, we lose; when it's clear, we win by a landslide; when overcast, it's a 50-50 close game. j/k
Ok you were right that 45 - 50 is way to much for Rafer. But I expect him to take less shoots if he's not making them, especially from the outside. I like his shots around the basket, I really do. And what's more I expect him to have more asists per game That's all. Generally I like Rafer but sometimes watching him just makes basketball worse.
Thats true about Battier but its also true that Morey was going use him last season to find a 3rd scorer. This was before Mike James, Scola, Francis became part of the picture. And If Calderon wants more than the MLE then Toronto still has to sign Delfino and Brezec and i just dont see it happening for them. Of course they will try to trade Ford but chances are they wont be able to because a bad contract and very bad value. Im quite sure that once Morey calculates a statistical comparison he will come to the conclusion that Calderon will have a bigger impact to this team then both Landry and Battier combined which is very, very likely true. Morey's number 1 priority this off season is finding a point guard and the best available one out there is Calderon. You can add up both Landry's and Battier's PPG and that does not even compare to the value and production of a guy who produces those stats in assist and PPG to a team offensively. You can pretty much add 8.5 assist worth of points and his PPG and come to the conclusion that this guy is more productive on the offensive side of things than both Battier and Landry combined. Basically no Battier and Landry is not untouchble the same can be said about Calderon.
Calderon is a pipe dream. And that's a pipe full of Mary Jane my friend. It'll never happen. Toronto can give away Ford if they have to. They ARE NOT going to let go of Calderon. The ONLY CHANCE anybody has of getting Calderon is if he makes it clear he wants out of Toronto and only re-signs for one year to become an UFA next season. Other than that, there is nnnnochance, in the words if the immortal Clyde Drexler.
I think the consistency people are talking about is the consistency of making those easy layups/floaters and wide open shots. It's obvious he's not gonna be shooting 3's like he did vs the Lakers, but as long as his floaters keep falling and he hits wide open shots, the Rockets will be going good.
