As of right now, is Lin one of the worst starting PG's in the NBA?

I guess people missed this tread:

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=232548

 

Hardens efficiency is not tremendously different than Lin's. He gets a volume increase due to number of shots attempted. Plus he gets a boost for the foul shots he takes and makes. Simply saying a player with slightly better percentages should shoot until their arm falls off does not win you games. Harden ( and if you'll notice not even Kobe) can carry a team all by themselves. No matter how 'great' they are.

To win we need both taking about the same number of shots. Harden will most likely score about 1/3 more points due to the fouls and FT's.

 

Their shooting percentage is not that different it is volume of shots that is different.

The FT numbers for Harden vs JLin is where the true difference occurs. Harden can draw a foul. So in reality THAT is what JLin needs to improve NOT his 3 point shot.

for the team to win we need both the guys to take about the same number of shots and for JLin to learn to draw a foul under the rim.

 

Not just one of the worst, but the worst.

Jeremy Lin w/ Houston:

PER: 13.7
TS%: .507
TOV%: 20.2
WS/48: .069

Rafer Alston w/ Houston:

PER: 12.9
TS%: .489
TOV%: 14.5
WS/48: .090

Rafer could at least dribble and shoot. Lin is on pace to become worst starting PG in Rockets history.

Trading him for second round pick or expiring contract would be miracle - there are alot of dumb GM's, but they aren't that dumb.

 

This is the single dumbest 'analyse' in this thread.

 

Response

Good post. How about Calderon? Where do you see him?

 

this whole thing puzzling to me. Because either mchale is a liar or lin is a rebel without a cause. I say this because Mchale always rambles on about the ball moving, not getting sticky, moving it side to side. But too many times we've seen harden take the life out of the ball and everybody just stands and watches. So is it lin just deciding to go camp out at the three or is that what coaches want? Either way it's not smart basketball.

democratic ball forever!

 

Response

You left out Parker.

 

Personally I don't think McHale is lying, I'm just not sure he has a clue.

Two things I notice about Harden...

1) Everyone defers when he gets the ball and stands at the 3 point line. Beverly did this a number of times. I often see Harden calling for a clear out as soon as he gets the ball and everyone moves to the strong side, or they simply spot up and wait for Harden to make his play.

2) Harden doesn't use the Pick anywhere near as often as he did last year. I'm not sure if that's his lack of confidence in his pick setters, or whether there's just a lack of PnR plays in the play book.

One thing I DID notice was during last night's broadcast one of the commentators said specifically that the Coaches want him to ISO less and pass the ball more. I found that unusual in that I hadn't heard that mentioned before from the commentators.

How much is the lack of Coach direction versus lack of trust in his team mates (Asik/Smith as the roll men) versus adjustment to the roster is hard to say.

 

If you take notice, there is big difference between Rafer's prime year and at the age of 24. Obviously, your data is from Rafer's prime year. This is like comparing a PhD student to a college freshman. Would that be fair?

 

I skipped the first 9 pages of this thread, but believe it or not-among (all) point guards, he is in the top 15 in scoring, field goal% & assists, top 5 in steals & rebounds, top 10 in blocks, top 20 in free throw%, and he is near the bottom in three point % and turnovers.

so I would go with an overall "no" to the OP question

 

As of right now, Lin is about as bad a PG as Howard is a C. To put it another way, they are both being asked to some really stupid things by their coaching staff.

 

I do see McHale constantly telling players to move the ball - especially side to side. However, I don't think simply passing the ball around the horn hoping the defense makes an elementary mistake works in today's NBA. Open looks have to come from penetration or PNR.
I'm not sure the players respect his coaching acumen. My fear is he gets fired and Kelvin Sampson, who is worse, takes over.

 

Bottom Line: Lin needs to practice 1000 jump shots a day.

 

PER is b****, if you read wiki regarding PER, here I quote from it:
--
Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:
"Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA player does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots."
--

So if Lin wants to improve his PER, he just jack up his number of shots per game, even if it does not fallin, as long as he keeps his shooting average above 21.4%, he is all good.

But Lin really needs to work on his shooting. I wish he plays from bench now to get his game back.

 

#startbeverly

 

I don't know if he is among the worst, but he has played closer to below average than above average for most of the year. Certainly there have been individual games which have been exceptions.

Lack of shooting is the obvious weakness, and his defense needs work. Nice steal numbers, but lots of reaching and gambling leading to easy scores for his opponent too. He also has a bad habit of picking up his dribble prematurely with no one open and people having to come to him to help him out which takes the team out of their offense. If you can't shoot you really need to take care of the ball, and Lin's is ranked 42 out of 48 qualified point guards at 2.02 assist to turnover ratio.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/p...ort/assistTurnoverRatio/position/point-guards

Part of the problem is that Lin is most effective as a pick and roll PG and we don't have any great finishers on the pick and roll in the rotation. Asik can't consistently catch the pass on the move in traffic. Morris and Patterson are usually outside the paint and haven't shown any effectiveness in the pick and roll. Greg Smith might be capable, but he doesn't get consistent minutes every game. Perhaps D-Mo or Terrence Jones will be, but they haven't been given an opportunity yet.

Of course it's not really fair to argue that Patterson or Morris need to be benched for being inconsistent, while argueing that we need to be patient with Lin. They are all young players who haven't had a ton of starting time and have had flashes of good individual games during the course of the season mixed in with instances of really poor play, and a bunch of average to slightly above/below average games.

 

what about the GM that signed him

 

Harden's assist to turnover ratio is 1.4 which if he was considered a point guard would be the worst in the league. So why is he running the offense so often?