The best conference in league history last season may be even better next season. 72 wins is going overboard. 60 wins would be incredible. I think we win 52-58.
How many did we win last year? Wasn't it 56? Are you saying we get worse the addition of Barry, Yao for a full season (hopefully), and Artest? Not to mention the fact that most of teh growing pains of Adelman's system should be over. What does it matter if the conference is really good when we're better than everybody? Barring any collosal injury and meltdowns, I don't think 60 isn't too outrageous a prediction.
Artest seems really excited to be a Rocket...can't wait to see him play. And I was about to cringe, but at least PTI actually interviewed the man instead of Around the Horn discussing YESTERDAY'S news regarding Artest and Yao.
I think 60 wins should be our regular season goal (with the obvious exception of being healthy at the end of the season). We showed the ability to compete hard most nights and grind out victories, a mindset that has carried over since Jeff was the coach. There will probably be 8 50 win teams next year, and we should aim to win 8 of 10 throughout the season. Beat up on the bad teams-CONSTANT VIGILANCE! Take care of business at home, especially against the good teams. Try to steal a few on the road against quality opponents. That would probably get us the #1 seed, definitely a top 2 seed. If we stay healthy next year, I think this team will get 60+ victories. Talk of 72 is hitting the fan juice a bit hard, but 60 seems a pretty realistic goal.
What matters about the conference being really good is that there is a lot of parity. The Celtics played in a far inferior conference last season and won 66 games. Plus, I was saying that winning 72 games is going overboard, not 60 games. I think 60 games is reasonably achievable but even that won't be easy in the highly competitive West. There are a lot of good teams: Rockets, Lakers, Hornets, Jazz, Spurs, Suns, Mavericks, Blazers and at least a couple of decent teams: Clippers (probably better than people will expect w/ B. Davis, R. Davis, Thornton, Kaman, Camby, etc...), Warriors (will win a fair share of games even after losing Davis w/ Ellis, Jackson, Maggette, Harrington, Turiaf, Biedrins, etc...), Nuggets (may not make the playoffs but will not be a walkover w/ Iverson, Anthony, Nene, Martin, Smith?, etc...). All I'm saying is 70+ wins is probably going overboard, everything considered, even though we've clearly improved more than any other Western team so far.
Adelman's team with so much talents will easily have 60+ wins next season. I am just wondering what how the offense works out. Basically with a lineup of Alston-Mcgrady-Battier-Artest-Yao, the Rockets have 4 3 pt shooters to spread the floor, 2 perimeter players that can create shots and break down defense, one dominant low-post player and 3 players that draw double team. It'll be a tough match up for any team. I expect Artest will improve at least 3 point efficiency differential of the Rockets and push the Rockets into top 2 of efficiency differential. If the Rockets stay healthy, the sky is the limit.
Artest isn't that good of a 3pt shooter but it is a weapon. That lineup you listed consists of only one very efficient 3pt shooter (Battier). If you really want to put our best legit shooting lineup out there around Yao (assuming Head and Novak are either gone or not playing much): Alston, Barry, McGrady, Battier, Yao. If we improve in the 3pt efficiency differential (offensive 3pt% - defensive 3pt%) that will be at least as much due to our improved defense as our improved shooting, assuming Barry is playing limited minutes off the bench.
It would be nice if the Rockets just blew out the weaker teams. Those blow outs definitley do get into the mind of the more worthy foes. If they can do this, then the Rockets should break their Franchise win record, which i think is 58. But 60 games won is very reasonable. And it should be expected!!
efficiency differential = offense efficiency - defense efficiency. I am not talking about 3 point shooting. It a little different from point differential. "efficiency differential" is a normalized point differential. Point differential is a proven indicator to calculate expected wins of a team. The Rockets have lots of room to improve in offense when compare to defense.
I thought you were making the point that his shooting would be the reason the differential would improve. If you are talking about his defense being the main factor, I agree with you.
I was just making a hypothetical. We could put that lineup on the court for small stretches but it wasn't meant to be the starting 5.
Last season I had expected 60 wins and it would have been possible if Yao hadn't been injured. So Artest and Barry should be worth 10 more wins. Altogether 70 wins is not impossible. Even so I don't think that we are through improving the roster yet, so you cant even make a ballpark guess at this point of the offseason!
