www.82games.com has the "clutch" numbers. Take a look. Martin's numbers over the years are rather inconclusive as far as being better or worse than usual during such times. There is also, by the way, no indication that less fouls get called in the playoffs. Morey mentioned that Martin has had good games against good teams so he expects Martin to do fine in the playoffs against these teams. I don't think there is objective evidence to support the subjective opinion of the SAC fans you heard from. Martin may or may not have done well in the 4th, his Kings probably did not do well, but that's really because they didn't do well in any of the other quarters, either, instead of some magical change caused by the 4th quarter.
Can you provide proof that players who suck in 4th quarters of regular season, also suck in the playoffs? Seems kind of a messed up assumption to me from a common sense perspective. But I am curious about it.
makes sense to me. 4th quarter is when the most pressure is on, and every posession seems more critical (of course every posession in the game counts toward the final result, but psychologically posessions in the 4th matter more) Same can be said for playoffs, everything is elevated (pressure, intensity, etc) If a player can't deliver in the 4th, especially in the clutch, I think it's a good indicator of how he might do in the playoffs, when the lights shine a little brighter..
This whole clutch, not clutch, 4th qtr thing is mostly about being able to turn on the overdrive switch, and partly about experience. We all know that a player, nor a team, can overachieve for a whole season. But what some players, mostly experienced ones can do, is pace themselves a bit, and always have that reserve of determination when the time calls for it. A lesser player can play at an elite level for a time, but not necessarily when he wants to or needs to. Young teams especially can pump themselves into playoff contention, but can seldom if ever continue it through 7 game series. Where star players come into it is that they have not only the ability, but the prudence on when to lite it up. We all know who the players are that can do this in their sleep. Thats what their payed for. When it comes to Martin, you have to take the team around him into account. And the 2010/11 Rockets are not a team he has played on yet. Im really not sure why he is being singled out, cause all players could be put through this grinder and many of them are going to show inconsistencies in pressure situations. But more importantly, the team around such a player has a lot to do with how one is forced to pace yourself. Kobe has the luxury, imo, of picking his moments because most of the time, the rest of the team can keep them close without him having to tap his full mojo all game long. Martin in Sac. definitely didnt have this luxury.
I can't give proof. But I think its a reasonable position that 4th quarter performance in the regular season is a better indicator for playoff performance than, say, 2nd quarter or 3rd quarter performance. When the stakes are highest and when the defense is most attentive, who can you count on? I guess my common sense perspective differs from yours.
Every basket scored counts towards the final margin (how many points team A won by?). Not the final result (did team A win?). That's an important distinction to keep in mind.
So basically you have absolutely no proof besides the fact that you "think" there is a correlation. Okay. I'm done with this debate. If it's just a matter of "this is what sports cliches keeps banging into my head repeatedly so it must be correct" thing, then I guess there's no way one can have true discussion on the matter.
The ability to "turn it up a notch" matters when a player basically dogs it during the season and perform up to par in the postseason. Or that they rest themselves over the grueling season in order to be in better shape when the postseason starts. But I don't see how that has anything to do with 4th quarter play. One deals with pacing within a season. The other just with the mythical non-ability to perform when the other team gangs up on you because they want to take away the 1st option down the stretch. Yes, I understand the concept of saving yourself for when it matters. Shaq pretty much continously not play the whole season for years but perform well in the postseason. He also, coincidently, relatively sucks in the 4th quarter due to his FT shooting woes. That didn't seem to hinder him getting 4 rings.
Im partly talking about pacing and saving yourself. But im also talking about when to demand the ball. When its going to hurt your team and when its going to help. Thats where experience comes in and goes beyond merely physical pacing.
True. Most stark example of this would be the "garbage time" points, which contributs to the former but not the latter. However, for the most part, plays made during the course of the game contribute to both. Also, over the long run, the average margin is highly correlacted to the % of wins in the final result.
Maybe you guys are but I'm not. I think he is the difference maker of this team. If he can make the step to being at minumun an Al-Star the Rockets will be a contender.
There have been many instances of Rockets coming strong out of the gate, only to falter towards the end. What they need is a guy that can step up when that happens and put the team on his shoulders, like Hakeem did routinely. I will say I'm underrating KM when he decides he will be that guy and actually makes a difference in the game to change the outcome. Until then, I'm not convinced.
To me, pacing is the only thing that makes sense about the so-called "turn it up a notch" thing. If a player can play at the "up a notch" level, that means he has the talent and ability to play at that level in other times. So why doesn't he? The only answer that makes sense is that he wants to save his energy for the crucial moments. Otherwise, he is just a slacker. Ever heard the motto "Always give 100%"? So what it really is, is not up a notch, but down a notch in other times. The "demand the ball" thing doesn't make sense. Why does a player have to have the ball to help his team? If having the ball helps his team, why does he have to wait till the clutch moment to do it?
I have as much proof as you have on the topic. We're each offering our opinions, and we disagree. No big deal. If you have other evidence to support your claim and refute mine, I'm happy to consider it and change my view.
For all his "clutchness", Kobe couldn't do jack squat for the Lakers after Shaq left and before Gasol came on board. Remember the Lakers constantly getting walloped out of the first round by the Suns? Wade, for all his "clutchness", only got his ring during Shaq's last strong year. After that, what has he accomplished? LeBron only had one round to the Finals, and that was because the Pistons melted down. He couldn't break the Magic or the Celtics with his "clutchness". Ultimately, what I am trying to say is that, if you want to measure Martin's "clutchness", you have to see the type of team he is with as well. If he is the sole offensive option on his team, then yeah, the opposing team aren't going to give him a chance to prove his "clutchness" come crunch time. That was with the Sacramento team he was on. Now, with 3 other offensive options on the Rockets, maybe things will be different... he now has the team and the opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.... Let's see how it goes this season.
Well, I based my opinions on the findings of statheads, including Daryl Morey. So I think you're really stretching it by saying I have no "proof".
Its called the Zone. And when a player gets in one, your team benefits greatly if you get him the ball.
Like others have mentioned, I basically dismiss KM's past 4th qtr performances since he's been on terrible teams in the past. Martin on the Rockets is no longer going to be asked to carry the majority of the offense like he had to on past Kings team, that is the difference to me as others have said. But I'm still keeping an eye on how much games he misses due to being hurt, and if he's getting the same calls in the 4th quarter as the other 3. You need to realize what type of player Martin is before you consider him overrated or underrated. He's a borderline All-Star type of player who is best suited as a supporting role player to me. Think of Toni Kukoc of the Bulls 2nd 3peat teams.
Meh, In honor of NFL Sunday, I'm going to use a football analogy. When a receiver runs a route, he is not going full speed...intentionally. He will go about 75% speed until, if needed, he needs to turn in up a notch to get to a ball that is intentionally led in front of him. It's a technique which is taught all the way down to the high school level of football. Is he dogging it? Of course not. Similarly, NBA players don't always go 100% within a singular game or through the duration of a season. They ratchet it up when needed not because they're dogs, but because it is an effective change of pace. The pertinent question here is how effective a player's (in this case Kevin Martin's) "next level" is? When he has to ratchet it up a notch...in the 4th quarter, or in the playoffs (where adrenaline causes everyone to go a little bit harder), how effective can he be? From what I have seen thus far, Martin's "quiet 30 point games" where he is oft negligible in 4th quarters is indicative of someone who cannot ratchet it up when the pressure is at its highest. Don't get me wrong...we'll never know until he is actually in the heat of a playoff game...but I have reason to pause: 1. Ron Ron v Durantula In the playoffs, a frail KD was absolutely flustered by a physical Artest. Foul weren't called at the regularity they were in the regular season and it had an unquestionable effect on the performance of a player some are calling a favorite to win the MVP. The comparison is obvious. Come playoff time will a frail KMart get emasculated by physical defenders? His game is largely predicated on fouls and he doesn't have the ability to create consistently off the bounce. 2. Multi-dimensional? Every great playoff performer has a plethora of countermoves. When the defense starts cutting off the curl patterns and refuses to rotate off of him on help defense, will Kevin have the fortitude and wherewithal to utilize effective counter...or will he simply be negated? For a reference point let's look at Yao. The entire league, I'm sure, is aware of the most effective way to defend Yao (other than with Keith Jones, that is). So why not just use it all the time to stop him? It is because it is most effective as a late game counter, as a way to sway games late...assuming it to be a close contest. The same will, I )believe be applicable to Martin, and i wonder if he will be able to counter it. So far, I haven't seen enough evidence on the court from Martin to give me great confidence.
