I'M NOT LOOKING FOR A REX BURKHEAD. I looking for a QB. I can show you dozens of highlights of Young running around.....and THROWING the ball ACCURATELY downfield.
We're just getting into the draft season, a lot more stuff will come out about these QBs. We can all have our favorites, but believe we should all keep an open mind until we get into April. This is a great article on Josh Allen as he begins to start his second season in the NFL... https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/11/21/20975461/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-quarterback-perception Encourage everyone to read the whole article, but here a few interesting tidbits... Allen is a rocket-armed passer with a defensive end’s body and a tight end’s wheels, and that combination makes him one of the most physically imposing quarterbacks in the NFL. But there have been times during his first two seasons when those gifts haven’t felt like such a blessing. “I think coach [Bill] Parcells would say this to his quarterbacks with strong arms: ‘Your greatest strength is also your greatest weakness,’” Allen says. “Trying to fit balls in when they shouldn’t be fit in. Trying to make the deep throw when you’ve got a guy underneath just standing there. Trying to put it in your mind that you don’t have to play the superhero on every play.” NOTE: I think Levis tried to do too much in 2022 and it led to the season he had. When Allen was selected with the no. 7 pick in the quarterback-heavy 2018 draft, the Wyoming product was considered a toolsy prospect without the pedigree or history of production of draftmates like Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, or Josh Rosen. Two of those QBs won the Heisman Trophy, Darnold won a Rose Bowl, and Rosen had entered UCLA as a five-star recruit who was once billed as the next Peyton Manning. Allen, for his part, completed just 56 percent of his passes in his two seasons as a college starter. He seemed to have the arm strength to rip a football through a brick wall, but there were questions about whether he could hit the wall in the first place. NOTE: In hindsight, taking Baker and Darnold before Allen has cost some folks jobs, and Rosen is so far from Manning its pathetic. Lamar at #32 was an absolute steal. The point is the highly credentialed guys with better stats aren't necessarily the best pros. It’s easy to get distracted by Allen’s physical prowess, as so many executives and scouts did before the draft. Listening to him dissect the position, though, it’s clear that his self-evaluation has involved intense reflection and a healthy dose of unflinching honesty. As Buffalo continues its postseason push, Allen hopes to reconcile others’ perceptions of him with the refined, restrained quarterback he wants to be. That pursuit may provide a window into how unpolished but talented quarterbacks progress in the NFL—and could ultimately decide the fate of this era in Buffalo. NOTE: Levis is exceptionally smart and loves football. With the right coaching he'll likely adjust his game to become the type of player he's shown the potential to become. At dinner the night before his classroom and throwing sessions, Allen was engaging and confident in front of a potentially intimidating audience: Beane, the Bills’ owners, and head coach Sean McDermott, among others. The next day, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll gave Allen a 30-minute tutorial about the Bills offensive system before putting him through a rapid-fire quiz about the material. His recall and acumen left a serious impression on Beane and others. At that point, he had checked the majority of the boxes that Buffalo was looking for in a franchise quarterback. His physical skill set was apparent, and now he had charmed the team’s leadership and aced the mental test. There's more, but this is last part I'll post... Of course, Allen had plenty of detractors in the draft community, many of whom shared concerns about his college production. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes as a redshirt junior, a mark that ranked 83rd out of 100 eligible FBS passers. In Wyoming’s three highest-profile games (against Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State), Allen went 44-of-91 passing with one touchdown and five interceptions. Wyoming went 8-5 in 2017 largely because of its defense: It allowed 17.5 points per game, ninth nationally, while the Allen-led offense scored 23.5 per game, tied for a lowly 104th. “Coming out of college, it was the accuracy issues: You only completed 56 percent in college,” Allen says. “Big arm, whatever. People have their opinions. It doesn’t bother me.’” There were also the usual small-school factors. While Darnold threw to JuJu Smith-Schuster at USC and Mayfield led an offense filled with NFL talent at Oklahoma, Allen was the only player from the 2017 Wyoming offense to be drafted. When judging college QBs, different evaluators can take the same information and come to vastly different conclusions. Allen became a quarterback evaluation Rorschach test. Some teams probably saw a quarterback whose scattershot arm would never lead to NFL success. Others saw a future star. ************************************************************ I think this last line is sorta where we're at on this on this board. Many see Bryce Young as the superhero who has won the Heisman and played big in many big games (sorta like Baker in 2016-17). Now personally, I believe Young is more polished passer and more astute at reading defenses, than Baker, but size was an issue for Mayfield and CLE took him any way, he's now on his third team after being #1 in 2018. C.J. Stroud is the big school pocket passer who finished strong (not quite like Darnold, but some similarities) and could challenge for #1 choice like Sam did. What I've watched of CJ hasn't been bad, I'm seen him throw anticipatory passes, but I saw Baker do that as well. For some reason Stroud is my least favorite of the big 3. Yes, Levis fits in the role of Allen in this scenario. Can he overcome his limitations? I think he needs the right coaching and situation, like Allen received to get there. If not, he could become like so many other strong armed QBs that flopped--Jeff George, Jay Cutler, etc. At this stage, none of us know who'll be the first QB go off the board. There is still some work to be done on evaluations, and those in-person meetings can make a huge difference, like the one BUF did with Allen that made them pull the trigger to trade up to #7 and draft him.
Right they do this bs every year. They hype up some dude that has no business even being talked about as a first round draft pick and somebody bites on it and gets F'd over.
If I had to bet money right now, I suspect Levis will be the first QB taken. As the draft process progresses, it seems teams focus more on "tools" and less on "on the field results" and I suspect more and more questions will come up about Young and Stroud, and scouts will fall in love with Levis and his name will get more and more momentum. No idea if it will be the right call or not, but that's how I suspect it will play out.
Then they haven’t watched Levis play. His decision making is crap. He is a big guy with a big arm but hasn’t proven he has what it takes between his ears.
The talent around him was also pretty much crap, which made him try to make hero plays because if he didn't win the game they were not going to win the game. UK draft prospect rankings for '23: RB 125, C 483, OG 628. That's it. Last season you ask? pick# WR 43, C 65, OT 145 2021: OT pick #206 I'm not advocating for or against him.
Did you watch Mahomes in college? You must have watched different games than I did. He had less talent around him than Levis which is validated by the fact he was the only player from TT drafted. In his senior year, Mahomes was number 7 in QBR while Levis finished the year at 61.
Of course I did. Google up who were Mahomes wide receiver in college and go to the 2nd article. Giles was a great wr. Baston made the NFL. He had really good targets to throw too. Plus it doesn't take into account that difference between playing in an air raid offense vs a Kentucky pro style offense.
Great point and believe looking at past draft profiles is useful as we consider players each year. While science has become a bigger part of evals, there is still an art to assessing draft prospects as well. How you measure a players heart, drive, passion, instinct and true love of the game is part of the art that great evaluators find a way to capture. It's interesting to go back to previous drafts. For consistency, let's look at Zierlein's evals of Mahomes, Watson, and Trubisky for 2017 Mahomes: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/patrick-mahomes/32004d41-4840-1939-e4c1-bb89191b4e71 Watson: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/deshaun-watson/32005741-5433-8355-e029-e49022cf4b81 Trubisky: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mitchell-trubisky/32005452-5521-5336-8519-c8cb45ea9b74 Of the 3, Mahomes had the lowest grade (6.3) and his comparison was Jay Cutler. Watson came in at 6.8 and was compared to Marcus Mariota. While Trubisky received a 7.0 grade and was compared to Matthew Stafford. Wow, in hindsight those grades and comparisons don't look good, but if you dig into what he said there's more meat to his evals and insight into how these guys have developed or not once they got on the big stage. Trubisky has been a bust, Watson a disappointment because of his off field behavior and Mahomes is arguably the premier QB in the league and could remain that way for another decade if he stays healthy. All three QBs were talented, but the thing that I think really separates how they have developed has been the superior coaching and situation that Mahomes landed in with Andy Reid and the Chiefs. Mahomes had the raw talent and moxie, but Reid and his staff have sharpened him into a world-class weapon that can destroy defenses with ease. Watson had a chance to be truly special if our lead would have held against KC in that play-off game. Who knows where he and we would be now if that outcome had been different. Trubisky is on his third team, fighting for back-up time. So as we go down our Coaching search journey, I hope whoever we select brings some offensive expertise and QB-development skills if we select a QB early in this draft.
The differences in offense would account for passing yards, completions and the like but doesn’t account for QB efficiency or QBR. It’s still about decision making which results in turnovers. Levis on average threw an interception for every 1.9 TDs he threw. Mahomes on the other hand threw an interception for every 4.1 TDs. Compare Levis to Stroud with 1 every 6.7 TDs or Young with 1 every 6.1 TDs. I repeat, at some point Levis may prove to be a very good NFL QB but so far he has not exhibited he has the mental prowess to get it done.
Not seeing the Levis hype at all, pure arm talent wise I think CJ Stroud is better. For every Josh Allen, there’s a dozen Blake Bortles, Zach Wilson, Mitch Trubiskys. Maybe the guy develops but he was pretty mediocre this year, and do you really think the Texans will be able to put the coaching in place to develop his raw skills. I go back and forth on Bryce and CJ, seems to me Bryce has great intangibles, touch, and rhythm. While CJ has excellent touch with a stronger arm. I don’t know why you would go with an unproven, raw prospect that isn’t even as talented over two guys who have proven much more over the last 3 years.
Stroud doesn’t have near the arm talent Levis does. Stroud has a Goff/Burrow type arm. Good on schedule throwing. He’s not a top tier arm. In fact his arm is similar to Mills, athletically they’re similar.
Mills does not even come close to the velocity on Stroud’s ball. Levis might have a stronger arm in terms of pure distance but there’s not much tape on him using that arm to hit receivers in stride. If I remember correctly Brock Osweiler could throw the ball deep too, which is probably who I would compare Levis to coming out of college.
