The difference between the Spurs and Rockets comes down to one thing at the end...basketball IQ. The Spurs as a team are very smart, which comes from each of their players having a good understanding of the fundamentals of the game. The Rockets, I believe have some players with good understanding of the game [Barry having the highest bball IQ on the team]...but as a team we are still not close to Spurs level. The addition of a Ginobili type may put us over the top in this battle. Note: The Mavericks, have a very low IQ, which is evident when you look at the loads of talent they have, which they have done very little with.
The keys to knocking off the Spurs are: 1. Getting the chance, the Mavs, Suns, and possibly the Nuggets are in the way. 2. Building cohesiveness, the players learning each other and meshing together, the Spurs have a big head start on this one. 3. Yao Ming. If it at any point he enters manhood, and begins asserting himself, the whole league is in trouble. Ming could make the Rockets NBA champions overnight. Imagine an aggressive, determined, athletic, 300+ lb., 7'6" Ming rampaging around the basket. Scary, but, will this ever happen? If he just expanded his three or four great games a year to twenty, or, dare we imagine, forty. The Rockets would be unstoppable. 4. Health. The injury bug can hit any team at any time. The Rockets are especially vulnerable, because of age. The Rockets have several players that have been injury prone through their careers including Sura, Anderson, Howard and, even, TMac. Will Ming's ankle hold up for 80+ games? Injuries usually decide the playoffs. What if the Rockets would have had a healthy Howard and Sura last year? Duncan's ankle made the playoffs more interesting than they might have been. 5 Luck. Sometimes the rim-arounds just fall. Sometimes things just go your way. Don't discount the possiblity that teams can hit hot streaks or slumps at critical times. I believe the Rockets chances have been enhanced all things remaining equal, but the unknowns will determine the final outcome.
I think we have more of a shot than people on the board are giving us credit for. Personally, I like the Spurs and root for them second to the Rockets, but, even a Spurs fan will admit that they are a team whose sphincters tighten up in crunch time. When things get into the 3/4 quarter of a close playoff game, to quote the immortal Chuckster, "you couldn't get a pin up his ass with a jackhammer." If you remember their 2003 championship, in their series against the Lakers they would always roar out to a 20 point halftime lead and then barely hang on in the 4th quarter. If we can keep the game close, we will always have a chance because the Spurs just aren't a team with a killer instinct. I'm not saying we'd be the favorite, but I'd put us at a 40% chance of pulling off the upset.
I do think it will boil down to us and the Spurs in the West. I don't think any other WC team has the potential team defense and half court offense to represent the West. Though I usually agree with Cabbage, not this time. I don't think we are near as far off as many think. 1st of all, the Spurs are not what I would call a "dominant" team. We are not talking about the peak Laker squad (02 I think) or the Bulls squads. We are not talking about as tough as team as the 93-95 Rockets either. The Spurs needed every once to beat the Pistons. The Pistons needed every once (and injuries) to beat the Heat. These were the 3 class teams, all outstanding defensively and with some half court weapons--but some flaws that each of their opponents made milage off of. When we had our full squad (healthy guard and JH), we definetely looked close to this group, even last year. Defensively, we were not far behind this group. Swift in particular and Anderson should further help this. I think if we play the Spurs--and we will in the WCF barring injury, it will come down to whether Yao exploits Rasha/Nazr more, or Duncan exploits Swift/JH more. I expect Tmac and Manu/Parker to cancel each other out, and the team defenses to largely smother the other's role playing smalls (opposing Barrys, Suras, Andersons, Bowens, Uriahs, James, Wesleys, Browns). So who is going to be more efficient in the half court when two defensive forces meet where scoring is at a premium, Yao versus the Spurs centers, or Duncan versus the Rockets PFs? I won't say we are favorites but given the match-ups it would not surprise me entirely if Yao makes the difference next year. Assuming Finley goes to the Heat I think they will be even harder for us to beat than the Spurs, because that is the one team Yao will probably be at a disadvantage, and Tmac becomes our only advantage. If the Heat stay healthy, I think Tmac would have to show himself a class or two above Wade on boths ends (think MJ versus Drexler in like 89)--a very tall order, for us to win.
mike james can contain parker. heck he contained NASH. This sole reason is why Mike James is important to this team. He is the only one who can guard these quick guard. He contained terry too. It was sura that was getting torched.
On this topic - does anyone have the ESPN insider Article... Houston a Stro away from contention? We'll find out in 2005-06. Dismember The Alamo Houston got Swift, Phoenix got tough, Sacto got Reef and Dallas got quiet. John Hollinger grades the Western Conference contenders on their summer preparations to topple San Antonio. West contenders load up for San Antonio showdown http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/colu...mns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2140143 Please post it if you can
Another thing to think about is how we're likely to match up in the playoffs. If you look at the way the playoffs are seeded, it's most likely that SA will be the 1 and Houston and Dallas will be 4/5. This means that SA will most likely dispatch the 8 seed in 4-5 games while we're in a 6-7 game dog fight with the Mavs. It'll be real tough to face a rested Spurs team coming out of a series like that. It'll definitely make it even tougher for us. But hey, I think the Rocks are up for the challenge.
While, obviously, you measure yourself against the world champions I want a piece of Dallas BADLY. We owe the Mavs an @ss-whooping!
There's still one free agent out there who can help us get past the Spurs... Jeff Gillooly! Give him a tire iron and send him over to Tim Duncan's house and the trophy's as good as ours.
The greatness of San Antonio is highly exaggerated. Yes, they find a way to win. Yes, they have 2 championships in the last 3 years. But let's look at other factors: 1. With a few breaks here and there, San Antonio would have lost in game 7. They did indeed win, but we're not talking about a dominating blow-out here. 2. San Antonio won 2 in the last 3 years. But they didn't win in all 3 years. The Lakers beat them with their stars playing at the top of their game and the reserves all pitching in. Our stars showed this in the Dallas series; our reserves didn't. Doesn't mean they won't do so next year. Every year is different. Before the 3 championships, the Lakers had their share of growing pains, getting swept by Utah- and also, the Spurs got absolutely whalloped by the Lakers in 2002 with roughly the same core of key players (albeit without Ginobilli being at his current level). 3. They play great defense. But their offense isn't exactly that great. They've had massive offensive droughts in selected games, and in a 7-game series, only 1 or 2 of those can cost you the series. Does this mean San Antonio sucks? Hell no. Let's just not putting on a 1996-1998 Bulls pedestal.
