Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Are the Rockets better than they supposed to be? e.g., is JVG making bigger impact?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by daoshi, Mar 25, 2004.

Tags:

Page 1 of 6

daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Are the Rockets better than they supposed to be? or Is JVG making a bigger impact?

I know this has been discussed before, I've tried to find it by going back more than TEN pages, but couldn't find any of them. Clutch can merge this into existing thread if he want since he is the only one can use the magic "Search" function here

I just came across the team stats for this season and the last two years, something interesting got my attention, so I'll post the stats here for your all to talk about.

We all know fans in general have short attention. Their emotion/opinion tend to be driven by teams/players game to game performce, instead of the longer term, overall results. if you add the homer factor there, you know how bias their opinion can get

I know stats cannot tell the whole story, but stats don't lie either. If you combine the stats with some other factors, you should get a pretty close picture.

Rockets
Season FG% 3P% FT% OFF DEF TOT APG SPG BPG TO PF PPG
2003- .438 .367 .767 10.7 32.3 43.1 19.2 6.8 5.4 16.5 21.2 89.0
02/03 .440 .346 .768 12.5 31.3 43.8 18.4 7.2 6.0 15.6 19.5 93.8
01/02 .428 .335 .741 12.5 29.4 41.9 18.1 6.6 5.4 14.1 18.0 92.3

Opponents
2003- .405 .364 .734 11.3 28.5 39.8 20.1 8.3 4.2 13.5 20.5 86.4
02/03 .433 .347 .775 11.9 28.7 40.6 20.5 8.1 4.7 13.2 21.9 92.3
01/02 .464 .360 .752 12.7 30.6 43.3 22.4 7.0 5.1 12.1 20.1 97.2

DEFENSE
Obviously, we made a big difference in Opponents field percentage, and points allowed between last year and this year, but we had a similar improvement between 01/02 and 02/03 season. Let's look at the stats closely here,
01/02---.464*********97.2
02/03---.433*(-.031)**92.3 (92.3 - 97.2 = -4.9pt)
03/04---.405*(-.028)**86.4 (86.4 - 92.3 = -5.9pt)

Many here believed that the improvement mainly due to the presents of Yao in the middle last season. If that's true, then you can also argue that Yao's increased minutes & improved play this season is the single biggest factor here as well.

OFFENSE
Although, many people have noticed Steve's shooting slump this season, but the team as a whole did about the same as last year. The big difference is the total scoring average, which is down from 93.8 to 89.0 (-4.8). Some people contributed this to the energy drain our defense demands, others think it's due to the slower tempo offense we are running. I guess it's a combination of both factor, plus Steve's decreased scoring this season.

Other significant difference is the OFFENSIVE rebound. It went down from 12.5 to 10.7 (- 1.2), which is very alering(sp?).

Another less evident difference is the improvement of assists from 18.4 to 19.2 (+0.8). I'd attribute this to the better chemistry becasue of ONE more season of playing together (Yao & the team).

So my questions are,

1). Are we a overall better team than last year?
I think this is an easy answer since we have better record than last year. We scored 4.8 less points, held opponets to 5.9 less points, so statistically, we gain 1.1 advantage here.

2). Is JVG the difference maker, or Would Rudy T. be able to lead us to 41-29 or better?
This is a tough question. With Yao in the lineup, Rudy was able to improve both Opponents field percentage and scoring average by the similar marging, just like JVG did this year. The thing Rudy T. did better was our own scoring average, which was actually increased from 92.3 to 93.8 (+1.5). That means the Rockets gained 6.4pt (1.5 + 4.9) advantge statistically under Rudy T.

NOTE. Please don't add the playoff to your argument since the Rockets were in pace to get in until Rudy checked into the hospital.

So with the stats above, what's your take on JVG's as a difference maker to the team?

--daoshi

#1 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
Last edited: Mar 25, 2004

tothomas Member

Joined:

Dec 9, 2002

Messages:

123

Likes Received:

0

No, we are not better than we're supposed to be.
Yes, JVG has made an impact.
No, I don't think we are better now with JVG than we might have been if Rudy had been given another year. We are just different.

#2 tothomas, Mar 25, 2004
CXmoney1221 Member

Joined:

Aug 6, 2003

Messages:

254

Likes Received:

0

regarding the decrease in offensive rebounds, it is not alarming, it is intended. We go less for offensive rebounds on purpose now to get back on defense, which greatly improved our transitional defense.

regarding the statment: with rudy will would not be worse, just different....

rudy = iso ball

jvg = um... an actual offensive scheme (which many of our players, such as francis and mobley, have never played in before, resulting the sluggishness on offense. also, our two guards are vital to any offensive scheme since they are the primary ball handlers, so if they dont know what theyr doing, it makes the offense look even worse. jvg has work on this with them and the team the whole year and finally our offense is somewhat jelling. but even a half decent offensive scheme is better than iso ball)

so the net affect is different = better

#3 CXmoney1221, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by tothomas
No, we are not better than we're supposed to be.
Yes, JVG has made an impact.
No, I don't think we are better now with JVG than we might have been if Rudy had been given another year. We are just different.
Click to expand...

I know JVG made the impact, any coach would have. But judge by the team's performance based on stats, do you think JVG has made a bigger improvement over Rudy, or any other coaches?

BTW, I just changed the thread title to reflect above.

--daoshi

#4 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by CXmoney1221
regarding the decrease in offensive rebounds, it is not alarming, it is intended. We go less for offensive rebounds on purpose now to get back on defense, which greatly improved our transitional defense.

regarding the statment: with rudy will would not be worse, just different....

rudy = iso ball

jvg = um... an actual offensive scheme (which many of our players, such as francis and mobley, have never played in before, resulting the sluggishness on offense. also, our two guards are vital to any offensive scheme since they are the primary ball handlers, so if they dont know what theyr doing, it makes the offense look even worse. jvg has work on this with them and the team the whole year and finally our offense is somewhat jelling. but even a half decent offensive scheme is better than iso ball)

so the net affect is different = better
Click to expand...

Why "different = better"? Aren't we all judged by the results in this society? This thread is not about the styles, or systems because teams have won with different styles, or system in this league before. Many here mentioned Rudy's ISO ball with The Dream, but I don't think any Rockets fan has problem with the titles from that style.

--daoshi

#5 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
JuanValdez Contributing Member

Joined:

Feb 14, 1999

Messages:

34,311

Likes Received:

13,834

Originally posted by CXmoney1221
jvg has work on this with them and the team the whole year and finally our offense is somewhat jelling. but even a half decent offensive scheme is better than iso ball)
Click to expand...

I don't understand. We are scoring fewer points on a lower FG% undery Van Gundy than we did under Rudy T, but somehow, Van Gundy's offensive scheme is better?

Obviously, the question about Van Gundy's contribution invites a whole lot of conjecture. My feeling is that we've gained or lost only a little from one coach to the next. Which is fine, since they are both good coaches. I actually think we'd be better under Rudy -- a stronger offense without losing too much on defense -- but not by a whole lot.

#6 JuanValdez, Mar 25, 2004
josene New Member

Joined:

May 20, 2002

Messages:

1

Likes Received:

0

First time poster but long time forum reader.

I just wanted to say that it is deceiving to analyze a team's record or a team's performance in a vacuum. You need to consider the quality of the oponents as well. I think the West has gotten a lot stronger this year hence a victory for the Rockets is harder to get these days than it was last year. Simultanoeusly, the Rockets are in a better position to advance to the playoffs this year. Consequently, IMHO, the Rockets are better this year than last year; they are still inconsistent but better.

It is interesting to consider what would happen to the team if JVG would get sick now (God forbids). I think that the team now plays within a system, so they would still make the playoffs unlike last year.

Josene

#7 josene, Mar 25, 2004

A-Train Contributing Member

Joined:

Jan 1, 2000

Messages:

15,997

Likes Received:

38

Well, it's good to see the Rockets are holding their opponents to a lower free throw percentage this season...Maybe Yao is ripping some juicy farts while opponents are at the FT line...or perhaps the glare from Van Gundy's head is reflecting off the backboard into the opponent's eyes...

#8 A-Train, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by josene
First time poster but long time forum reader.

I just wanted to say that it is deceiving to analyze a team's record or a team's performance in a vacuum. You need to consider the quality of the oponents as well. I think the West has gotten a lot stronger this year hence a victory for the Rockets is harder to get these days than it was last year. Simultanoeusly, the Rockets are in a better position to advance to the playoffs this year. Consequently, IMHO, the Rockets are better this year than last year; they are still inconsistent but better.

It is interesting to consider what would happen to the team if JVG would get sick now (God forbids). I think that the team now plays within a system, so they would still make the playoffs unlike last year.

Josene
Click to expand...

I'm glad you finally decided to join us

We all know the team IS better based on statistics I listed above, and based on their 41-27 record at this point of the season. The question is what are the key contributing factors? Is it because of teams' natural maturization(sp?), or is it because JVG made the single biggest impact to that improvement?

About the strength of the West conference teams this season, that's very debatable. You could also argue that Phoenix is much weak this year; Utah is no longer the same team any more; the Blazers shuffled their team during the middle of the season. So the only thing we can talk about is the stats, and the stats says Rudy made bigger improvement with Yao than JVG did.

#9 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
jscmedia Contributing Member

Joined:

Feb 14, 1999

Messages:

3,030

Likes Received:

279

I love Rudy, always have and will.

I am more then pleased with the JVG era, and while resisting the idea initially, have fully embraced the wisdom of bringing him in.

I look forward to where he can guide this crew, and as I posted 5 months ago, believe that we definately can get to the second round. ( at which point our egos blow up and so do we.)
BUt, hey, playoff time babie, yes !

#10 jscmedia, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by A-Train
Well, it's good to see the Rockets are holding their opponents to a lower free throw percentage this season...Maybe Yao is ripping some juicy farts while opponents are at the FT line...or perhaps the glare from Van Gundy's head is reflecting off the backboard into the opponent's eyes...
Click to expand...

Nap! Yao usually doesn't lineup for the FTs, I guess JVG doesn't think he is fast enough to get back on defense if we cannot get the offensive rebound. I actually think Yao loses at least a couple rebounds because of that strategy

On the other hand, your observation of JVG's head might be a key factor of opponents lower FT %!

--daoshi

#11 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
choujie Member

Joined:

Sep 12, 2002

Messages:

7,389

Likes Received:

77

Originally posted by JuanValdez
I don't understand. We are scoring fewer points on a lower FG% undery Van Gundy than we did under Rudy T, but somehow, Van Gundy's offensive scheme is better?

Obviously, the question about Van Gundy's contribution invites a whole lot of conjecture. My feeling is that we've gained or lost only a little from one coach to the next. Which is fine, since they are both good coaches. I actually think we'd be better under Rudy -- a stronger offense without losing too much on defense -- but not by a whole lot.
Click to expand...

Please keep in mind that this is JVG's first year and the team need time to get used to his system.

In 18 games since All Star break( 13 agaisnt West,5 against East), Rockets is avraging 94.1 points on 44.5% shooting, both way above season average although our defense slipped a little bit. These numbers are better than last year's.

#12 choujie, Mar 25, 2004
haven Member

Joined:

Oct 22, 1999

Messages:

7,945

Likes Received:

14

Originally posted by JuanValdez
I don't understand. We are scoring fewer points on a lower FG% undery Van Gundy than we did under Rudy T, but somehow, Van Gundy's offensive scheme is better?

Obviously, the question about Van Gundy's contribution invites a whole lot of conjecture. My feeling is that we've gained or lost only a little from one coach to the next. Which is fine, since they are both good coaches. I actually think we'd be better under Rudy -- a stronger offense without losing too much on defense -- but not by a whole lot.
Click to expand...

What do you think Rudy did particularly well on offense? His offense was hardly complex - just relied on stars to make plays. I'm not disparaging that here as a bad idea - but I am curious:

why do you think JVG has rejected an offense that is well within his mental grasp? Would you prefer a return to even more 1-on-1 play? Or would you prefer something else entirely?

#13 haven, Mar 25, 2004

NBAsticker Member

Joined:

Oct 25, 2003

Messages:

208

Likes Received:

1

Originally posted by JuanValdez
I I actually think we'd be better under Rudy -- a stronger offense without losing too much on defense -- but not by a whole lot.
Click to expand...

I totally agree with you at this point.

I don't think that JVG has done much better than Rudy did. Yes, ROX looked like they made improvement on the defense, but the offense also sucked significantly. If we take the foul troubles into account, ROX' defense is just fair.

One thing I would like to point out is that the record of ROX' road games against West Conference is 4:15. Why? Does the defense make an impact? I don't know. It may attribute to the degradation of the offense.

#14 NBAsticker, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by choujie
Please keep in mind that this is JVG's first year and the team need time to get used to his system.

In 18 games since All Star break( 13 agaisnt West,5 against East), Rockets is avraging 94.1 points on 44.5% shooting, both way above season average although our defense slipped a little bit. These numbers are better than last year's.
Click to expand...

The same argument can be made for Rudy. Last season was Yao's first in the league, he was so bad at begining of the season, he scored ZERO point in his first game; he was just as bad near the end of the season, he was benched in many of those games. So you can basically say Rudy had a much tougher job last season.

I'm not trying knocking JVG, but he has never showed any offensive teaching ability during his entire coaching tenure with the Knicks. That Knicks team is one of the alltime worst offensive teams in the league history! The sad part is that team did have scoring threads with an inside presents in Ewing, just like the current Rockets. I know Ewing was on the downside of his career, but he was still a thread on both ends then. Let's just hope he can do better than he did with the Knicks.

#15 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by haven
What do you think Rudy did particularly well on offense? His offense was hardly complex - just relied on stars to make plays. I'm not disparaging that here as a bad idea - but I am curious:

why do you think JVG has rejected an offense that is well within his mental grasp? Would you prefer a return to even more 1-on-1 play? Or would you prefer something else entirely?
Click to expand...

I guess the better question is Will the Rockets be better with Rudy than with JVG this season?

The reputation says Rudy would do better on the offensive end, but JVG has an edge on the defensive end. That's exactly what I believed until I pulled the stats together. The stats says Rudy did better on offense as we expected, but to my surprise, he made the same improvement on defense as well, of course with Yao. So there is no reason to think he wouldn't be able to do the same this year.

#16 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004
choujie Member

Joined:

Sep 12, 2002

Messages:

7,389

Likes Received:

77

Originally posted by daoshi
The same argument can be made for Rudy. Last season was Yao's first in the league, he was so bad at begining of the season, he scored ZERO point in his first game; he was just as bad near the end of the season, he was benched in many of those games. So you can basically say Rudy had a much tougher job last season.

I'm not trying knocking JVG, but he has never showed any offensive teaching ability during his entire coaching tenure with the Knicks. That Knicks team is one of the alltime worst offensive teams in the league history! The sad part is that team did have scoring threads with an inside presents in Ewing, just like the current Rockets. I know Ewing was on the downside of his career, but he was still a thread on both ends then. Let's just hope he can do better than he did with the Knicks.
Click to expand...

There is a difference. Last year basiclly Yao was the only person who needs to learn the system. This year everybody has to learn it. Sure you can say Yao was not as good last year, but on the other hand, Steve is having the worst year stats wise in his career right now. We are talking about the entire team.

Compare the offense at this moment to the offense at beginning of this season, I see a big improvement. Steve and Cat are playing within themselves a lot more. I have reason to believe JVG's offensive system is starting to work. I saw no hope last year at the end of the season.

#17 choujie, Mar 25, 2004
No Worries Contributing Member

Joined:

Jun 30, 1999

Messages:

30,490

Likes Received:

17,493

JVG has made the Rox play better D than Rudy would have. That translates into a better record, maybe. This year's squad has better talent than last year's, in particular at the starting 3 (Jackson versus TMo/Posey) and the bench (Padgett, Pike and Adrian Griffin). An argument regarding addition through subtraction could also be made for EG and Mooch.

I do have a big problem with JVG appearing to run Francis off. If JVG and Francis are on the team next year, CD might want to think about hiring an assistant coach for offense.

#18 No Worries, Mar 25, 2004

haven Member

Joined:

Oct 22, 1999

Messages:

7,945

Likes Received:

14

Originally posted by No Worries

I do have a big problem with JVG appearing to run Francis off. If JVG and Francis are on the team next year, CD might want to think about hiring an assistant coach for offense.
Click to expand...

But what would you want that assistant coach to do? I actually would like an assistant as well... but for that reason... no.

You've got two stars who would prosper in diametrically opposed systems. You can either split time (which reduces repetition, and therefore efficiency)... or you can pick one to structure the team around.

I can't see Francis playing his best on a team that's primary offensive need is to get the ball into the post. Yet there's really no alternative... because if you have a dominant post player... that's really the offense you almost have to run.

#19 haven, Mar 25, 2004
daoshi Contributing Member

Joined:

Jul 6, 2002

Messages:

3,021

Likes Received:

75

Originally posted by choujie
There is a difference. Last year basiclly Yao was the only person who needs to learn the system. This year everybody has to learn it. Sure you can say Yao was not as good last year, but on the other hand, Steve is having the worst year stats wise in his career right now. We are talking about the entire team.

Compare the offense at this moment to the offense at beginning of this season, I see a big improvement. Steve and Cat are playing within themselves a lot more. I have reason to believe JVG's offensive system is starting to work. I saw no hope last year at the end of the season.
Click to expand...

I guess I just don't share your optimism, especially after they scored 90 points after OT yesterday. 90 freaking point with OT! That'd just incredible when you consider the scoring options we have with Yao/Francis/Mobley/MoT.

#20 daoshi, Mar 25, 2004

(You must log in or sign up to post here.)

Page 1 of 6

Share This Page