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Anyone know DMs hit-miss rate in the draft?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by agentkirb87, Apr 10, 2013.

  1. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Fair enough. I should have said that he has not shown that he could pick great talents in the lottery (because he did not have a lot of chances yet). But you have to concede that he did miss some better talents in the mid first rounds and went for guys like Patterson, Morris, and White. Hopefully if Terrence Jones becomes a stud, then Morey will have something to show of his ability to get great players by draft.

    I've never doubted that Morey is above average even before he made all those stunning trades. I have always been an advocate of dumping the "you must be a basketball guy to be a good GM" conventional wisdom, in favor of getting smart people who can make good objective decisions. Now I would say that he is a top 5 GM. Hiring Morey is probably the smartest thing Les Alexander has ever done as the Rockets owner.
     
  2. Rocket Booster

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    Van Gundy said Morey wanted Battier and convinced them to do the trade using "advanced stats" that showed Battier did more than what showed up in a box score.

    Van Gundy was very clear in stating that Morey was totally behind that trade.
     
  3. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    My point isn't just the lack of ceiling, but lack of floor. Players like TWill, Morris, and now White aren't just not stars, they've fizzled out. Also frustrating is that the one player who perfectly fits Morey's mold of high upside guy was picked right after we did in Larry Sanders. Yet he picked the "safe" guy who turned out not even have retained his college rebounding ability in the NBA.

    Overall, Morey has passed up plenty of star players during his tenure, so they're not unavailable. He also had a ton of draft picks to work with in general during Les' buy-pick days. Not saying he should be hitting on all these guys. But the player with the highest upside after 10+ picks is Chandler Parsons.
     
  4. giddyup

    giddyup Contributing Member

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    Patrick Beverly was drafted by the Heat but we got him as a FA from overseas.
     
  5. Karolik

    Karolik Member

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    He's average at best when drafting lottery picks.
     
  6. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    And I heard that from another insider with about as much clout as jvg.
     
  7. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
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    This . Spot on. I remember reading that Adelman watched Brooks play in oregon and was high on the guy, he was the one that pushed Morey to draft him. Landry was scouted by CD I believe? But he was another player that was pushed on to Morey's plate since it was his first draft.

    Can't really fault a guy for not having great picks but I agree with the general sentiment in this thread, he doesn't really have that eye for BIG talent, but he is incredible at picking out the diamonds in the rough.

    As his basketball resume bulks up and he gets more experience I'm sure he'll see how other teams draft players not just on numbers, but their ethic, feel for the game, and overall B-ball IQ. Coaches are especially good at this and can envision how the best case scenario for a plyer can pan out.
     
  8. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
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    If it took him a couple of tries and mistakes in the draft to get a better feel, that is fine. Morey is a high IQ guy that learns from his mistakes and knows how to adapt. I feel confident in his further draft choices. I do hope that he continues to listen to the coaches in terms of potential. Yea we know what happened with Royce but most of the time the coaches can predict the translation of game into the NBA better than anyone else.
     
  9. dragonz

    dragonz Member

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    We traded Batum for someone that scored 40 pts in one game of summer league, and then using him to land us Artest.

    Obviously you are too young to remember that.
     
  10. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    OMG,
    Man I'm generally a fan of most of your posts but I really have to shake my head at you trying to minimalize Daryl Morey as a GM. Which one of those meetings were you specifically in on to know that Morey gets zero to little credit for the good draft picks and all the blame for the not so good ones? Come on man your a lot better than that.

    Les has specifically credited DM for the draft and refered to him as the best drafter in the sport in the Houston Chronicle. I think I'll go with that over some fiction created to minimalize the GM. Do you really think DM has had that little say over the draft? Really?

    DM is the GM and the Rockets have been much better at drafting players since he has been here. I've always been a huge CD fan but he stunk when it came to the draft.

    DM deserves just as much credit or blame as any other GM in the league when it comes to the draft. Don't try to tell me what you think happened as if you were there. DM gets credit for Brooks, Landry, Scola, Budinger and Chandler no question about it.
     
  11. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    ^
    Scola is an interesting point. That's really stretching it... But I can see an argument that evaluating Scola was in some ways similar to drafting process. It's not the same -- we are talking about a 27 year old vet -- but similar.
    If you use Scola to judge Morey's "drafting ability", Morey's case looks quite a bit stronger.

    Still, the best drafter in the sport? Les seems quite generous.
     
  12. Rocket Booster

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    And that was a very stupid move.
     
  13. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    There is no question that Batum is better than Green but DM was all about upgrading the Roster for an imeadiate run at the title and not a future player (which is what Batum was because he was so green). As I recall DM drafted Batum specifically so he could trade him to Portland because he knew Portland wanted him. He got Green and a 2nd rounder for Batum which looks pretty bad now but you also have to remember he flipped Green for Artest.

    Trading for Artest that year is something you do 100 in 100 times because you are trying to win now not in the future. So if you have a chance to trade for Artest you make the trade regardless if your trading Green or Batum. I don't know if Sac makes the trade if it's for Batum though, maybe yes or maybe no.

    In fairness to your statement though; I don't think DM traded Batum with the intent of flipping Green for Artest so it turned out to be a bad trade on the surface.
     
  14. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Contributing Member

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    Im still confused.... what "Stars" are you referring to that Morey passed up in the draft? Either your referring to someone like a Euro-stash Marc Gasol (which everyone passed up), or your talking about a now just decent player that most everyone else passed up(Larry Sanders, DeAndre Jordan) for very good reasons at the time.

    -Reasons being- they were often so raw they probably wouldn't develop until their second contract on their second team anyways like most project big men. I can totally understand a GM passing up someone like that because they are so behind on skill level going into the draft, your essentially going to be developing them for the next team that picks them up when they finally hit their stride.... back to the point here... these guys aren't "Star Players."

    -Every year there are surpises in the draft like Faried, and Leonard. However, you are still leaving out the fact that these guys are great fits in the current systems they play in, and are still not franchise stars as much as people love them. Just because Leonard is a perfect fit in SA, doesn't mean he's going to be the #2 superstar in Houston, or would have taken the Bobcats back to playoff contention alone.

    If Morey had the 5th pick in the draft and drafted Thomas Robinson over Damian Lillard I could see the frustration, but that's not the case here no matter how you are trying to swing it.

    Yes, Morey has had a bounty of draft picks to choose from, but other than the Rudy Gay(didn't develop into a near all-star until last year in his 2nd contract)/Battier pick, none of them have been in the pick range to get an All-Star talent that isn't a complete swing for the fences type of player like a Euro stash, or undeveloped big man.


    -Lastly- Marcus Morris is far from a bust. He showed early on this season, that in the right system, on the right team he can be more than an adequate starter already in his SECOND YEAR. Yes he struggled to get off the bench in Houston his rookie year, but so does almost everyone in Houston. Morris is going to be a solid player, even if only a spread the floor PF specialist, for many more years in the league.
     
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  15. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    You can't use subsequent trades to justify a previous bad trade/draft unless you can show that the first move was planned for the second.

    If a guy traded a Lexus for a Toyota, and then a few months later, he was able to trade the Toyota for a Porsche, that first trade was still a dumb trade, unless he already got the promise of the Porsche guy that he wanted that Toyota for the Porsche.

    What you can say about the Batum trade is either
    1. He saw a better trade value in Green than the Batum pick, or
    2. He was quick to wipe the mistake he realized he had made, or
    3. The two moves were totally unrelated.

    I think #3 was most likely the case. At that time, Green and Batum looked to be at similar level in terms of value. So I'd say if we had Batum instead of Green, we would still be able to trade for Artest.

    Again, just because Morey was smart in trading does not get him off the hook that he misjudged Batum's potential value.
     
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  16. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    i agree with you.
     
  17. ZNB

    ZNB Contributing Member

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    How do you expect him to find all-star level players picking at 14+? Unfair critisism if you ask me. Are any of the players he has passed up better than harden? No, so its a moot point if you ask me. The most important thing a GM can do is not miss on star players when given the oportunity. And he has done that with the Harden trade. So i dont mind him missing on role players, just like every GM in the league, as long as he doesnt miss on the important moves.
     
  18. HI Mana

    HI Mana Member

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    Let's compare Daryl's drafting record outside of the top 10 to some other "mediocre" GMs, like for example, the guys running the NBA finalists for the past decade:

    Sam Presti, Zombie Sonics

    2007:
    2008: Serge Ibaka (#24) DJ White (#29) Kyle Weaver (#38) DeVon Hardin (#50)
    2009: Byron Mullens (#24) Robert Vaden (#54)
    2010: Cole Aldrich (#12) Tibor Pleiss (#31) Latavious Williams (#48) Ryan Reid (#57)
    2011: Reggie Jackson (#24)
    2012: Perry Jones III (#28)

    Pat Riley, Miami Heat

    2007: Daequan Cook (#21)
    2008: Mario Chalmers (#34)
    2009: Patrick Beverly (#42), never played for Miami Robert Dozier (#60)
    2010: Dexter Pittman (#32) Jarvis Varnado (#41) DaSean Butler (#42)
    2011: Norris Cole (#28)
    2012: Justin Hamilton (#45)

    Donnie Nelson, Dallas Mavericks

    2007: Nick Fazekas (#34) Reyshaun Terry (#44) Renaldas Seibutis (#50)
    2008: Shan Foster (#51)
    2009: Rodrique Beaubois (#25) Nick Calathes (#45) Ahmad Nivins (#56)
    2010: Dominique Jones (#25)
    2011:
    2012: Jared Cunningham (#24) Bernard James (#33) Jae Crowder (#34)

    Mitch Kupchak, Los Angeles Lakers

    2007: Javaris Crittenton (#19) Sun Yue (#40) Marc Gasol (#48)
    2008: Joe Crawford (#58)
    2009: Chinemelu Elonu (#59)
    2010: Devin Ebanks (#43) Derrick Caracter (#58)
    2011: Darius Morris (#41) Andrew Goudelock (#46) Ater Majok (#58)
    2012: Robert Sacre (#60)

    Danny Ainge, Boston Celtics

    2007: Gabe Pruitt (#32) Glen Davis (#35)
    2008: JR Giddens (#30) Bill Walker (#47) Semih Erden (#60)
    2009: Lester Hudson (#58)
    2010: Avery Bradley (#19) Luke Harangody (#52)
    2011: JaJuan Johnson (#27) E'Twaun Moore (#55)
    2012: Jared Sullinger (#21) Fab Melo (#22) Kris Joseph (#51)

    Otis Smith, Orlando Magic

    2007: Milovan Rakovic (#60)
    2008: Courtney Lee (#22)
    2009:
    2010: Daniel Orton (#29) Stanley Robinson (#59)
    2011: Justin Harper (#32) DeAndre Liggins (#53)
    2012: Fired

    R.C. Buford, San Antonio Spurs

    2007: Tiago Splitter (#28) Marcus Williams (#33)
    2008: George Hill (#26) Malik Hairston (#48) James Gist (#57)
    2009: DeJuan Blair (#37) Jack McClinton (#51) Nando de Colo (#53)
    2010: James Anderson (#20) Ryan Richards (#49)
    2011: Kawhi Leonard (#14) Cory Joseph (#29) Davis Bertans (#42)
    2012: Marcus Denmon (#59)

    Danny Ferry, Cleveland Cavaliers

    2007:
    2008: J.J. Hickson (#19) Darnell Jackson (#52) Sasha Kaun (#56)
    2009: Christian Eyenga (#30) Danny Green (#45) Emir Preldzic (#57)
    2010: Resigned

    Joe Dumars, Detroit Pistons

    2007: Rodney Stuckey (#15) Arron Afflalo (#27) Sammy Meija (#57)
    2008: Walter Sharpe (#32) Trent Plaisted (#46) Deron Washington (#59)
    2009: Austin Daye (#15) DaJuan Summers (#35) Jonas Jerebko (#39)
    2010: Darington Hobson (#37)
    2011: Kyle Singler (#33) Vernon Macklin (#52)
    2012: Khris Middleton (#39) Kim English (#44)

    Finding guys like Parsons is an incredible feat; even the very best in the business have problems pulling a diamond out of a non-lottery pick. If these GMs are the company that Daryl Morey keeps, I would think we're in very good shape going forward.
     
  19. Rocket Booster

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    Morey should not be credited with Scola. The Rockets fan base always wants to credit him for being the one to go after Scola, when that's not how it happened really.

    The truth is that Carroll Dawson had been trying to get Scola for years and it was one of his big goals to sign him as the Rockets power forward. When Morey took over, he simply signed the guy that Dawson wanted him to sign and told him to.

    The reason the Rockets even got Scola was because for years Dawson talked with him and his agent. Finally, when Scola demanded the Spurs sign him or trade him, the Rockets were of course the team he wanted to play for.

    And so all Morey had to do was give him a contract, since Dawson had already told Morey the team's plan was to sign Scola and make him the power forward.

    For some odd reason, it seems like no one in the Rockets fan base knows this. But that's the true story. Scola coming to the Rockets was totally a result of Carroll Dawson.
     
  20. Rocket Booster

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    That list just shows that the Cavs and Spurs were light years better at drafting than those other teams.
     

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