My numbers used Electricity at a historic low in Houston as well. The efficiency of charging the pack is what y'all are missing. To help visualize more. Let me show your targets ratios in terms of gas prices. I'm going to use CXbby's rate of $0.12/kWh and show you what the cost of gas would have to be to hit a 1:3 and 1:4 50% savings -> 1:2 ratio Tesla fuel cost to ICE = $2.50 / gallon 66% savings -> 1:3 ratio Tesla fuel cost to ICE = $3.72 / gallon 75% savings -> 1:4 ratio Tesla fuel cost to ICE = $5 / gallon Note those prices assume no increase in Electricity from 12 cents
I was referring to people who where subtracting their entire gas costs. Looks like we can get a 50% drop vs the pump. More if gas prices soar again and electricity stays the same.
1. Off peak rates are significantly lower than average. About 1/3 to 1/4, some utilities will even credit you for using off peak power. 2. Tesla Supercharging stations are completely free, and charge your car 4-5 times faster than at home.
I'll use off peak prices if you can find them. I don't think the fee and taxes are affected by that, though. So, what we might hear about pure kWh discounts still has all the transmission delivery charges, etc. These are significant charges to the bill that might be fixed regardless of time of day. I don't know. Would like to find out, though.
Charging stations are required in new apartment constructions in CA now. As demand is demonstrated, more infrastructure will be built by public/private sector. Right now it is just Tesla doing it by themselves mostly. Also in the future all Tesla Supercharging stations will be solar powered (partner with Musk's other company Solarcity), so won't even need access to the grid. Battery degradation so far on early Model S builds have been around 6% after 50,000 miles. Newer build fair better. As we discussed earlier, replacement costs depends on Tesla's proprietary battery cost, which is kept as a trade secret. Speculation is that it is currently around $200/kwh. With their Gigafactory running at full capacity in 2020 and producing more Lithum ion batteries than the rest of the world combined, it is projected that it will end up well below $100/kwh, possibly below $50/kwh. It is the only way they will be able to sell the Model 3 at a profit.
I use coned: http://www.coned.com/customercentral/energyresvoluntary.asp Also link for pseg: https://www.pseg.com/info/environment/ev/rlm-rs_rates.jsp
A 70kwh battery replacement cost will be $14000?? I can see 3k-5k, but anything over that is pretty cost prohibitive.
Ok I just looked it up, $12k for 85kwh battery today. Which is definitely cost prohibitive but then these are $100k cars. The Model 3 will go into production in parallel with the Gigafactory(Tesla's giant battery factory) - which is needed in order to make Model 3s profitably. With economies of scale it should take Telsa's cost to at least below $100/kwh. A Model 3 will likely start at a 50kwh battery, which would then be $5k to replace. Eventually at full capacity if they get to $50/kwh then it will be very manageable. (This is not speculation - if their costs stay at $200/kwh they will not be able to produce the Model 3 at a profit and would go bankrupt. So it has to happen. It is the whole purpose of constructing one of the largest buildings in the world to produce a ton of batteries at scale.)
Most of us? Pretty much no chance if we keep current production plans. They will ramp up production steadily with most of the first cars trickling to CA initially. They are not going to deliver 300k or 500k cars all at once. However Elon has tweeted multiple times about possibly increasing production ramp, which I have also speculated about. That won't be free, it will cost a lot of money for Tesla, which is why I believe they will need to do a capital raise first. If that happens then you will have a much better chance to get your car earlier. I'll update the thread regarding this. edit: I forget, are you in CA? If you are then you have a decent chance of getting it early even if they don't increase production plans, if you were one of the first in line.
Well damn. By most of us, I meant most who are ordered when available. So unless the production is increased, the skepticism seems warranted. Yes I do live in CA, however I pre ordered online when it was available, not at the store.
Yes. But it is highly, HIGHLY likely that production will be increased. I cannot see it going any other way.
99% of the time people will charge at home and they will be top off charges. Top off charges take longer and are far less efficient because they need to balance the cells. when charging (especially older packs) if one cell is 4.1v and another is 3.9 you bleed the voltage off the higher volt cells while still sending in power. Bleed is another word for waste. Supercharger stations should not even be in this discussion with HeyP.
Why not? I agree that most charging will be done overnight at home. But that is only the case because people choose to do so. If home charging's cost was highly prohibitive, there is nothing stopping people from doing 100% of their charging at Superchargers, for free. As it turns out, charging in the middle of the night at off-peak electricity rates is not cost prohibitive.
Yeah, people love sitting around places and wasting their time so their cars will work. I'm sure this will happen. Because in the real world, it won't change the price of running the car. That was the point of HeyP question and calculation and correcting your garbage miscalculations.
Superchargers are used everyday across the world. Yes, they are primarily used for long distance travelling, not daily fill-up. However, if you are going to calculate your cost of fuel to compare with a gasoline car, you have to factor in every time that you use a Supercharger for free, because that is one time you saved from charging at home. It would only be irrelevant if you plan on never using Superchargers, and confine your life within a 240-290 mile bubble.
I know you aren't good with calculations but people won't/don't use them enough for them to be relevant to the cost discussion HeyP was having (life of car vs gasoline). The network exists to fix the problem electric vehicles have with quickly refilling their gas tanks away from home. It is great that you are fighting to include supercharging but unwilling to include the inefficiency of a rectifier. Brilliant bias bro.
What are you nitpicking over and why are you here? Just curious. Do you feel your comments in this thread aren't transparent? People are interested in Tesla. I'm sorry.
So the chances are looking pretty decent for me since i'm in CA, even though I pre ordered online instead of in store? Also, in the original question you quoted above, I was more so referring to the initial shipments getting delayed - as in, there will be no "late 2017" deliveries and it will in turn be delayed until sometime in 2018.
Your inaccuracies. HeyP asked for a quantitative idea of the cost savings and you fought back with "buut supachargin tho!!" Remember this? glass houses and stones. I'm here because I am a car guy, I have an eBike and interest in hobby battery packs for years now.
