I would say hydrogen fuel cells are the real future while battery powered electric motors are more of a stop gap.
Who is doing your solar? I know you are in Austin... I am, too and had someone take a look but didn't like them.
Tesla's history of delays is well known. It did not cause mass cancellations for the Roadster, Model S or the Model X. The people ordering now go in knowing well what they are getting into - and still stood in line for hours or days for the privilege to wait for one. Unless another 2008 crash is imminent, there is as likely a chance for Tesla to lose reservations as it is to gain them in an improving economy. Production is in 2 years. There would have to be a severe recession at that very moment to matter. As I mentioned before, Tesla has never advertised a price that includes tax incentives - this leads me to believe that the majority of reservation holders will not cancel even if the tax expires. Also, this only applies to the US. The reservation totals are global. Again, I am sure there will be some cancellations. In fact some will cancel for your exact reasons. However, there is no reason that I can think of that would cause, as you put it "significant percentage" of cancellations. And no where near, as you put it "safe to say". If anything, reservation totals will grow an order of magnitude higher by the time production begins - its only been 4 days. Apple is perhaps the most successful company in the history of the world. If you are comparing Tesla to it, that is the highest endorsement there is. The fact that you believe Apple is where it is today because of fanboi hype shows that you do not understand what made it successful - similar to how you donot understand why Tesla is/will be.
Unless your daily commute is on the Autobahn or Nurburgring, the Model S's performance is best in class*. (So is the Model X) *includes superior handling/cornering due to low center of gravity(the majority of the mass is equally distributed at the bottom of the chassis). Superior AWD due to digital connection instead of AWD connected by axles in gasoline cars. Not just 0-60 times(which are supercar level)
It truly is remarkable technology if they can deliver for sub $40K. I suspect the R&D departments of all the major car manufacturers were some of the first to put down their deposits.
I booked two Model 3's on Thursday night. Told all my family and friends to do so and two of them actually did. I've gotten calls and texts from like 6 others asking if they can have my reservation in line. None of them will be remotely upset if they don't get the tax credit. I don't even think half of them know about it. As CXBBY pointed out, Tesla really hasn't advertised the after rebate price.
well, there's 5 of us in our company who bought with the expectations that we'd get the rebate and we're all going to cancel if we can't get the the full amount. we live in texas so we'll have limited access to these free charging stations. maybe the reason why there's a lot of demand is because of the rebate? we'll see.
Hydrogen is more expensive then gas as of right now Highly combustible gas powered cars is not something most people want to see on the roads Still have to go to a gas station to refill, as opposed to electric that you can just power at home Way behind in terms of technology and infrastructure then electric (read Tesla) Hydrogen fuel cell cars are the HD-DVD of the Bluray - HD-DVD wars
I'm doubtful the rebate matters if Tesla can hit their price point without too many additional add-ons. Also, not out of the realm of possibilities rebate gets extended/expanded. As Cxbby pointed out in his interview, nobody's lining up for the Volt. Plenty of rebates avail on that! So $300m cash raise and 300K strong prospects. Not a bad few days.
curious to current Tesla owners: Aren't there bearings, drive trains, tires, etc -- lots of moving parts outside the traditional internal combustion engine -- that need servicing? What has your R&M experience been like if you've owned for a while?
I believe I read somewhere that the avg price after add-ons is currently $42K, but if you go the P route - I'm sure you'll get into the $50K range easily.
Unfortunately hydrogen fuel cell is the betamax compared to battery EVs, they will never take off. There are 2 primary reasons: 1. You have to get the hydrogen from somewhere, and today that is electrolysis. This is an incredible inefficient process - it takes more energy to produce the hydrogen than the amount of energy you get out of it. It just doesn't make sense to do this. 2. For hydrogen fuel cell cars to succeed, you will truly have to build a refueling network from the ground up that will be massive in cost. It is also a chicken and egg problem - with no refueling network there is no demand for the cars, with no demand for the cars companies won't take the risk to build out the refueling network. Before anyone says battery electric has the same refueling problem, the electric grid is completely built out and accessible by every household. Every home with a garage is a ready-made "gas station". This is where battery electric cars are refueled 90%+ of the time. The network infrastructure that needs to be built out is to enable long distance travel(only along highways) and city charging - a much easier task. And perhaps most importantly, the chicken and egg problem has been solved for battery electric(at least for Tesla), when hundreds lined up last week. This will spur a wave of investment in battery charging infrastructure. The one and most important advantage of fuel cells is the fast refueling time. This cannot overcome its disadvantages. And in fact, even this advantage is mitigated since for the vast majority of instances, recharging time for battery electric is inconsequential - you come home from work and plug it in, it is 100% the next morning when you need it - it did not take up any of your time. Before the founding of Tesla their engineers did extensive research on the viability of battery electric, fuel cell, hybrid and all sorts of technologies. Their goal was to make a compelling zero emissions vehicle. They came to the conclusion of battery electric because it was the only viable option.
Nobody is saying their wont be any cancellations. I'm sure their will be many. Its not exactly a cheap thing to buy. I bet a lot of people that booked might not even be able to qualify for a car loan. But its been 4 days and the reservations are somewhere between 275000 - 300000. The car is probably about two years away from being actually delivered. I am not excited just for Tesla's sake. But the auto industry needs a revolution of sorts. Tesla is going to force others to re-evaluate the demand for electric cars, the dealership format that is meant to fleece the consumer, the type of electric cars people want (nobody is going to buy a Bolt or Volt or whatever if the 3 is going to be similarly priced), overall infrastructure to support electric cars and finally the autopilot aspect of it.
I've had mine Model S for over 2.5 years now. Besides the yearly inspection I can't think of anything I've had to spend money on. I got the extended warranty and once a year they send me a loaner Model S while mine goes in for service for a few hours and they bring it right back and pick up the loaner. Amazing hassle free experience.
That's not all. Their costs to capital just went down drastically after showing this kind of demand. If they wish to raise $1-2 billion in order to significantly ramp up production(I highly suspect this), banks will grovel at their feet for a debt offering at minimal interest rates, and investors would be more than happy to throw money at them if they chose to do a secondary offering. Even 2 months ago this would have been impossible, because the markets would have viewed any capital raise as Tesla running out of money and would punish it for that. Now the narrative is completely flipped. Their suppliers will now take them very very seriously. Even just a few years ago many top end suppliers viewed Tesla as a bit of a conundrum, unwilling to fully commit to them in case they fail. Tesla had to settle for third rate suppliers at times because those were the only people that would take their business. This contributed to some of the complaints over interior quality of early Model S's. This will never be a problem again.
yup...the instant credibility on sales projections is probably worth more than the $300m! Basically, they're all in now. Home run for the ages, or Casey at the bat.
One last thing, that might be more important than all that. The Tesla mindshare just exploded. https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/0dr90d https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=/m/04cylkl https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Tesla Model x https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Tesla Model 3 To further answer Cometswin's concerns over cancellations - for every person who cancels due to wait times, someone who has never heard of Tesla might find out about it and say, "f*** the wait time, I can buy a Model S/X today."
Even if half of the reservations in the last 4 days canceled Tesla still has more demand than most analysts expected.
