Advanced metrics such as FIP won't necessarily be a good predictor of future regression because our defense is really that good this year. Unless Dusty insists on trotting out an Alvarez, Tucker, Brantley outfield with Diaz, Robel, Jones + scrub of the week in the infield.
I'm not worried about them making the playoffs and winning the division, but I am worried about them advancing in the playoffs. Most of that worry surrounds the rotation. The rotation is good, not great. There are guys capable of having a great game, but not something to be relied upon. Framber's struggles really concern me. Ever since the substance crackdown, his control has gone to crap. I'm not saying he was using sticky stuff, but it would make sense. Surprisingly, Luis Garcia has probably been our best/consistent pitcher. I do worry, though, the org will eventually limit his innings and won't be in the rotation come playoffs. Greinke has been eh. LMJ will probably be our game 1 starter. Very capable of shutting down high-power offenses, but he's not that "ace" most playoff teams have. Then there's Odorizzi. I like Urquidy. Hopefully he can make a strong comeback.
They only thing I worry about is our team going cold at the wrong time. But that goes for any team. If our boys are hot, we can destroy any team and any pitcher.
Good point. The recent poor performances are probably less regression to the mean as much as natural variation. The Astros don't have a Gerrit Cole or Walker Buehler, but they do have 6 pitchers that have thrown lots of innings with above average results. They have a 7th who's basically been average (and may have figured out a mechanical issue). Walker Buehler also had a stretch where he gave up 11 runs in three starts over 19 innings. Gerrit Cole has had 4 starts where he gave up 5 or more runs in 5 innings or less. Lance McCullers has only given up 5 or more runs once. Cole and Buehler are still better pitchers but even with this "rough" patch, Astros starters have been consistent. They won't be the reason the Astros don't make or win the World Series.
