If things continue as they have, this would be my playoff pitcher usage for innings 1-6: Game 1/5: Greinke 5 innings, Stanek/Taylor 1 inning Game 2/6: McCullers 4 innings, Javier 2 innings Game 3/7: Valdez 5 innings, Raley/Montero 1 inning Game 4: L Garcia 4 innings, Odorizzi 2 innings 7-8-9 high leverage would be Maton-Graveman-Pressly; 7-8-9 low leverage and/or extra innings would be Stanek, Taylor, Raley, Montero, and Y Garcia. If Urquidy or Baez look strong then they could replace Odorizzi and Taylor.
I guess my main question is when do the Astros start to limit Garcia's innings? Teams generally try to limit new pitcher's additional innings over previous innings high to be in the range of 20-30% more. So if my numbers are correct Garcia has around ~5.6 more games left he can start if he goes 6 innings per game. Previous innings high: 108 innings This years innings pitched: 106 innings 30% higher than 108: 140 innings Innings left to pitch before exceeding 140: 34 innings Games left to pitch at 6 innings per: 5.6 games Games left in the season: 50 games Game starts for Garcia left in season: 10 games Also would have to factor in playoffs.
I strongly suspect they will have Garcia on a reduced/strict pitch count over the next month. There’s also the possibility of them going to a 6 man rotation (when Urquidy is healthy) or just bringing guys up to have Garcia skip a start or two.
To answer the question posed by OP, no, I am not worried. We are in a rough stretch, sure, but every team has stretches of subpar play. It’s the dog days of August. We are injured and not at full strength. We will be ready come October. I’m also not going to armchair QB or second guess Click...no one knows what deals were and weren’t available, but I trust him to make the team as good as is feasibly possible. We have a fantastic roster all things considered. I’m not too worried about the Robel or other backend roster struggles...they won’t be playing when it matters. We still need to make the playoffs obviously but are in good position to do so, so no I am not worried. Other teams should be, though, because Stros are a’comin
The job that Luhnow did was absolutely amazing. I respect Wade for all he did, a lot of the stars that were on the team came via Wade’s watchful eyes, so I think he got a bad rap; but Luhnow brought a different approach that seemed to be a heavyweight approach. Wade got Altuve, Keutchel, Springer…. Which is pretty damn amazing.
Then there was Jonathan Singleton. https://www.houstonpress.com/news/re-evaluating-the-astros-tenure-of-ed-wade-6715253 Singleton, for instance, has been anointed as one of the saviors of the franchise. And he's a Wade acquisition. Then there's one of the other saviors, George Springer, who Wade drafted in the first round in 2011. Jason Castro, the catcher, was Wade's No. 1 draft choice in 2008. Starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel was a seventh-round pick by Wade's regime in 2009, and Jarred Cosart, another starter, was also part of the Pence trade. Don't forget Jordan Lyles, a Wade draft pick who was flipped to the Rockies as part of the Dexter Fowler trade, or J.D. Martinez, who's now with the Tigers. And the top names on the lips of salivating fans awaiting their major league promotions are Delino DeShields, Mike Foltynewicz and Austin Wates, all Ed Wade regime draft picks.
The jury is still way out on Click. I think he has been doing a great job. Would have loved a starter at the deadline and I believe he tried, but we as fans have no idea if anybody would come here or not or what outrageous prices may have being asked. His off-season had some hits and misses, but he was handed 1 OF in Tucker and now has a really productive OF as a result of the Brantley signing and McCormick getting his chance. Really silly how some are raking this guy over the coals.
You are right, Wade made a lot of moves. It was a time that Drayton was giving away 1st round draft picks trying to stay competitive. And Wade was able to generate a stable of intriguing talents. Cosart got us a huge return, though I don’t think it panned out much; but it was MLB bodies to get out onto the field. Nonetheless it was a massive haul. Jordan Lyles is still pitching in the majors. JD Martinez is having a spectacular career, if he were a better defensive player, he’d be a much bigger deal - but he’s an ideal DH. I know a lot of folks that dislike Wades approach, but he built a nice foundation for Luhnow to work his magic. I’m still a huge Luhnow fan, and think he should never have gotten fired. But Click is doing good himself, he’s maintaining the sails right, but time shall tell…
Agreed, Click is doing some solid moves. Moves that require a high level of knowledge about how a guy will fit in with the current team. He’s finding great fits… Straw was a make you feel good player, but unless a guy has a .400 OBP, it’s hard to carry a position player with a low .300 slugging percentage. Chaz is an excellent option, and he’s gonna have a nice career. Toro was difficult to see go, but you got to give something to get something. The pitcher the Astros got in return strengthen the bullpen immensely. Hence no moves make me irritated, they seem solid and smart.
It should be criminal that there's not a catcher on the MLB roster that's hitting above the Mendoza line.
Yeah, I can't understand people complaining so much about Click. I'm not ready to canonize him, but I can't really complain much either. He pretty much gets a inc. right now. Some good moves, some bad moves, and a few players who could end up on the good or bad side by years end. He inherited a team with financial restraints, major outgoing talent, a depleted farm, no good drafts picks, and a soon to be shelved ace eating 60 million dollars. This notion that he was handed this perfect 107 win machine that some have is absurd. The Astros have lost a ton of talent to free agency and injury since the world series.
Agreed, except catchers that cant hit their weight shouldn't be starting on a WS contender. Sad thing is Click signing Maldy/Castro to two year deals means that we're going to be seeing the same crap next year. SMDH
Did he, this is a false narrative. Straw, Chaz came up from the farm and performed well. There have been other guys that have contributed as well. Solomon? He had money to spend, he just chose to spend it on a reliever with declining velocity (Baez) and Castro, Maldy extension. But yes, when money is tight you cant afford these types of mistakes. I was very happy that Click was aggressive and fixed the bullpen at the deadline.
Definitely concerned about Dusty. In fact I'm pretty much done with him. Pitching, lineup and rest-day mismanagement and cluelessness aside...I have some of the same problems with Dusty that I have with Tony La Russa and other older, "old school" managers. Simply put, I think that modern day baseball in general has passed him by. Dusty just doesn't seem to truly "get" this Astros team. And he often seems to be "going through the motions" or "just along for the ride" or "throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks". Managers don't tend to impact W-L records that much, but I do think that with a more competent and better-fitting manager, the Astros would currently have 72+ wins, even taking their injuries into account. At least Dusty isn't an *******, unlike TLR. Dusty is a good dude who's just mediocre at his job. Every good team has one or two bad stretches where they play like crap against a bad team during a season. It happens. Especially during the dog days of summer. IIRC the 2017 Legitimate World Champion Astros got swept by the White Sox in Chicago during the summer, and that White Sox team was among the worst in MLB. The difference with the 2021 Astros is that these "bad stretches against poor teams" are happening way too often. I still think this Astros team will win the AL West fairly easily, especially if they can get healthy soon. I also still think that they're the team to beat in the AL, although the White Sox are close behind and the Blue Jays could be very dangerous if they make the playoffs. But winning a World Series against a Giants or especially Dodgers...I'm not too confident about that. The '21 Astros are not as good as the '17-'19 Astros.
Dusty and TLR are legends and still successful, but I can't help but think that they are hindrances rather than facilitating success. Really hard to not succeed considering the level of talent on the roster (when healthy).
If there is a concern about starting pitching, I think that is only because of a small small sample of recent results. Astros starting pitching has pitched the 3rd most innings and has the 6th best ERA and WHIP. Those aren't the ultimate stats, and some of the advance metrics that try to factor out defense/luck have them closer to the middle of the pack. So, they're not a dominant staff and some regression to the mean as of late was probably expected. However, we are 2/3rds of the way through the season and Astros starters have pitched a lot of innings with well above average results. That's not sub-par.
