Detroit would be an interesting landing spot for Verlander... returning to where he began his career. He could also mentor their two young stud pitchers, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. I'm indifferent as to whether we get him back -- obviously it's unclear what his stuff will look like given his surgery and more importantly, his age.
I’ve been wondering whether LAD would have interest in JV. The Heaney signing makes it less likely. I’m sure JV would very much like to goto a west coast team. Wonder if SD or LAA are possibilities.
https://www.audacy.com/sports/mlb/what-to-know-from-justin-verlanders-showcase - Joel Sherman of The New York Post says that there is "a strong chance" Verlander declines the qualifying offer after a 25-pitch session that saw him reach as high as 97 mph on the radar gun. - Additionally, Sherman adds that "15-20" teams were in attendance to see Verlander's session, specifically naming the New York Yankees and New York Mets. - Jon Morosi and Harold Reynolds of MLB Network noted that Verlander "has reached 95-96 mph in recent throwing sessions." Morosi added that he's heard that Verlander is on the Tom Brady approach, hoping to play until he's 45 years old.
Great but it's also disappointing because it makes you think he could've contributed to this post season.
A few innings here and there wouldn't have had a significant impact on the World Series. We just didnt hit
Is he really going to get 19M AAV for multiple years based on 25 pitches given the draft pick compensation? If he really thinks he is in good shape and can pitch a long time, wouldn’t he want a shorter, higher value contract with the idea of signing a longer higher value deal next year?
If he is ready now, then it seems we arent on his list. The WS ended less than a week ago and he wasn't even mentioned.
We gave Verlander 66 million to rehab in California, it’d be nice if he took a competitive offer to stay here.
If JV has any conscience at all, then he would know he just got paid for two seasons of no pitching and feel obligated to return to the Astros to make up for it. That’s how I feel about it.
Why? Throwing hard is only one small part of pitching. No one has any idea if he has his control back or has feel for a breaking ball or anything else. Throwing a bullpen session in front of scouts basically tells us his arm strength is there. That's about it.
Given that a team has to give up a draft picks, teams are going want to get him for multiple years. A single year deal is less worth the cost.
Given that insurance paid for his contract, maybe his loyalty should be to the insurance company? If he had pitched 2 full outstanding seasons of his contract and then gotten hurt in the World Series helping the Astros out, do you think the Astros would have had a conscience and felt obligated to pay him for 2 more years of rehab? Injury risk is part of a contract's valuation - JV was old and the Astros gave him a deal knowing there was a risk of injury. Your scenario can be negotiated in a contract - if JV pitches less than 50 innings in a season, the team gets a club option for another year at min salary. You'd have to pay him more for the 2 years though.
Agree, Verlander doesn't owe the Astros anything. His legacy is best served going elsewhere at this point. The Astros are about to lose their best player and beast. Verlander can make more noise on a championship caliber team. While he likely makes us better, there is no guarantee he will be available, or elite, and that risk is expensive.
I was trying to say I think he was going to wind up taking the qualifying offer. I would be surprised if he gets a one year deal for much more money (like you said) and I think it's unlikely a team is going to take a risk on a big money multiple year contract with him coming off TJ surgery based on one workout. It seems like taking the QO, pitching well and negotiating a bigger multi-year deal would be in his interest, but I could be underestimating the types of multi-year offers he's going to get.
Based on the feedback from his showcase, something like $42M/2yrs (possibly with a 3rd year vesting option) seems very reasonable for Verlander.
