Ante Up: Your predictions / expectations for Tuesdays vote

+1, but I'm going to add something. Chris Bell will end up with less than 20% of the vote, barely ahead of Grandma and Werner, and will blame Kinky for not winning.

 

I don't know what basso's smokin', but I think it's terrible that he's holdin' out on the rest of us!

(drops thick, East Texas accent)


The Democratic Party takes the House, handily. The Senate is split 50-50, and at least one moderate Republican, rather than see the far-right GOP retain control, crosses the aisle and caucuses with the Democrats, ala Jeffords. Democrats end up controlling both branches of Congress. I'm not going to play some game about historical trends in election cycles. We have never seen gerrymandering close to being as sophisticated as what we are seeing now, with the use of computers and sophisticated programs that cherry-pick districts in a way never seen before. All things being similar to elections of 10-15 years ago, you would see huge Democratic gains in the House. We still may see those huge gains, but in my opinion, those gains will be damped down by what I mentioned. All I can say is that what goes around, comes around... I can already hear the howls of the GOP when their greed comes back to bite them on the butt, and the same thing happens to them in the future. We should have reform... right after a bit of payback.


There is a very real chance of voter suppression and voter fraud during this election, but I'm going to remain optimistic that it won't occur enough to tilt the election. I could be wrong, but I hope not.

edit: I voted for Bell. I hope that through some miracle he wins, but I don't expect it, due to the other independent candidates splitting the vote. That's a damn shame, because if it were just Bell running against Mr. Corruption, he'd win. Another Nadir in Texas politics, folks. Oh, well.



Keep D&D Civil.

 

Ha! Already starting the spin, eh? Why use data from 1945 when elections and gerrymandering were very different? Try looking at the numbers for the past 20 years.

Or, if want to go back that far, we can just look at it this way. The Democratic Party didn't even exist 200 years ago, so if they win 1 seat, it's a monumental achievement!

For me, I hope for a gain of around 30-35 seats, but expect at least 20-25 or so. Anything less would be very disappointing.

 

If they win the House by 1 seat, that is not dissapointing. Dems set the agenda, have more play in conference committees, can initiate investigations, can force the Repubs to vote on stuff they don't want but the country does, can make Bush veto popular bills, etc. After 6 years of this crap, I'd be ecstatic with a 1 vote majority. Of course, more would be better.

 

so you agree now this is a victory for the democrats?

 

without kinky bell would have been really close but just a little short imo

 

I agree. I was dead wrong about Bell's and Kinky's support. It's a shame. We could have had a really good governor with a lot of great common sense ideas. I underestimated the support for both parties in this state.