http://www.click2houston.com/hou/news/stories/news-169355820020930-070949.html October Hurricanes Are Rare Texas hasn't endured an October hurricane since Jerry in 1989, which killed three in southeast Texas and rendered Texas Highway 87 permanently undrivable between High Island and Sabine Pass. Only seven October-November hurricanes are reported to have struck the Texas coast since 1837. While Texas is most susceptible to tropical storms in July, August and early September, October storms have been detected as far back as Oct. 21, 1631, when a hurricane killed more than 300 sailors in the gulf. The first October storm on record to strike Texas was Oct. 2-6. It was called Racer's Storm, named for a British warship that encountered it in the Caribbean. It struck Brownsville, and then raked the coastline up to Galveston. Galveston was struck again by a flooding hurricane Nov. 5, 1839. That storm struck later in the hurricane season than any storm in history. The island was hit again in October 1842, and then the lower coast endured a wet October hurricane in 1848. A strong hurricane hit the mouth of the Rio Grande on Oct. 2-3, 1867, devastating the booming cotton port cities of Clarksville and Baghdad, which eventually disappeared. Autumns remained quiet until Oct. 3-4, 1949, when a strong hurricane struck Freeport, killing two and causing widespread crop damage in the region.
MadMax - it is rare that a hurricane affects Texas in October. Usually by now, cold fronts and other troughs are sinking south into the Gulf of Mexico, deflecting storms to the north and northeast, towards the Florida Panhandle area. However, the forecasts all call for a high pressure system to remain parked over Florida, allowing Lili to continue on a basic west-northwest path until landfall - and then recurve as it gets picked up by such a trough. It's the same high pressure system that is keeping the temperatures relatively high for this time of year in the southeast. But hey, if it slows, anything could happen. That's just not forecasted or probable right now.
Not a problem. The buildings in LA are built to withstand earthquakes. I just don't want to be in a second floor apartment when a cat 3 storm rolls through.
ok...the recurve part...so it would hit houston or somewhere on the tx/la coast and curve which way? northeast?? is that what you mean? refman -- i'll take hurricanes over earthquakes every day...the enemy seen is much less dangerous than the enemy i can't see coming...the buildings in SF were built to withstand earthquakes too...
Well, sorta. It'll continue west-nothwest through the Gulf of Mexico, only starting to gradually turn a little to the north as it approaches shore. However, once inland, it will continue this process at an accelerated rate, moving northwest, north, and then finally northeast, all while gaining foward momentum. Kinda like a long arc, I'd say. At least that's what is projected as of now.
GAME, SET, MATCH -- Thanks for playing, ROOKIE You see, there are circumstances where this is appropriate.
It's a category 4 hurricane now. I sure hope it doesn't hit Houston. I wonder how far back it would set back the construction on the new stadium. B
Dude!!! Don't even think about that. Man I sure hope this thing turns to LA, A Cat 4 hurricane is going to do some serious damage.
Current reports show the storm making landfall near Lake Charles. The storm surge should be 12 feet or more. They are saying that this storm will be catastrophic. The worst thing to hit since Camille.
The past few satellite images show Lili gradually beginning to turn northwest; most model guidance agrees upon a landfall of extreme western Louisiana. The current forecast calls for Lili's winds to reach 125kt by landfall in about a day-day and a half, which translates to 144mph. However, since it is a small storm, those winds will be confined right to the direct path of the storm. Now, the perpetual "doomsday" scenario has been a major storm passing just west of New Orleans, with the city in the northeastern quadrant/eyewall - typically the strongest part of the storm - and Lake Ponchatrain flooding it's banks due to the buildup of water off of the Gulf. If this thing turns to the noth quicker than expected, New Orleans could be in for one heck of a storm. That's not forecasted as of now, though, and that's probably a good thing.
The worst thing that could happen for whereever it makes landfall is if it slows up for some reason and just belts wind and pours rain for hours. It would make Allison look like a spring shower.
So is there any chance that it won't turn north and it will keep coming right at us???? I'm freaking out! ( like the dude in Super Troopers)
There is always that chance...hurricanes are a b**** to predict. but it's lookin more and more like it will hit around the Tx/LA border..which is good news for H-town.. since we will be on the West side (or clean side) of the storm...Its a booger now..have you seen the latest radar shots? Well formed and powerful Cat 4 hurricane..Look out!
it's been headed northwest the entire time, mfclark...until i hear north/northwest...or simply north...i'm concerned. i'm not as convinced that this high pressure system is gonna save us...i really hope i'm wrong, though. just heard it said that some of the models are starting to move it further west now at landfall...
