Analytics and 3-point shooting

"Stop shooting 3s" is obviously not the answer. The problem I've been seeing is that our players sometimes hesitate when open in the midrange area. It's like, "Oh my, I am in the forbidden zone. What should I do?" I think if you have an M.O. of intentionally avoiding shooting the midrange, it creates a mental challenge to the shooter.

An open 2 is a more efficient shot than a contested 3. We should run plays that create open 3 but should tell the players to shoot open shots wherever they are.

 

I don't think anyone would disagree with that.

 

What is the best shot in the NBA?

Spoiler

The open shot.

The secret is space. And space on the arc is much much easier to find than space from 10 feet.

 

Which player? the only one who seems to is josh and as good as he's been for us, he should hesitate to the point he never takes a long 2.

 

Nope. If a guy is a 40% shooter who misses 8 in a row, then there is a 40% chance he will make the next one. If he makes 8 in a row, then there is a 40% chance he will make the next one.

 

We had some discussion before about it here with some articles from grantland.

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=261581

as to why keep shooting....Id imagine players don't get themselves out of slumps by being gun shy.

 

Shooters can't hesitate on taking shots because when they overthink, their muscles get tight, delivery gets funky, and their shot becomes worse.

If they practice enough and have a decent percentage, they let their muscle memory take control. Same thing for FTs. You try to use the same successful shooting mechanics every time.

The only adjustment we see is if guys are missing, they try to take an easier shot--a dunk, a lay-up, a corner 3 so they see their shot going in.

 

If they can make it...

Harden took more midrange shots in Game 3 vs DAL. Brewer also is a good shot in the midrange. Ariza not so much.

 

I heard one of the ESPN commentators (I think) during one of our games say that McHale had told Josh Smith if you miss 2 3s in a row, then maybe try a different shot next time. If you ake 2/2 or1/2, then you can keep shooting.

I think Ariza is playing the same way, as he has been mixing up his shots more.

 

it boggles my mind when you advanced stat guys dont know why the team's 3pt shooting isnt elite. we dont have any good shooters out of harden and terry, and terry's just a 15mpg kinda guy so he wont shoot many. ariza, bev, brewer, smith, kostas, dmo and jones are all avg or below avg shooters. at least one of them has to be be above average for the 3pt offense to be consistent.

the best 3-4 teams in each conference has more than one above avg shooter who takes a lotta threes. we only have harden.

 

A player who shoots a 37% expectancy 3pt shot has a lot more variance than someone who shoots a 55% 2pt shot. When the 37% 3pt shot is taken it should create 1.11 points on avg, while a 55% 2pt shot should create 1.1 pts.

However, since the 3pt shot generally creates a range of {0,3} (not counting for fouls on the shot) while a 2pt shot has a range of {0,2}, the 2 pt shot is lower overall variance since the standard deviation from the average is lower than it is for the 3pt shot. The 3pt shot in this example creates a slightly greater point production per shot, but is way higher variance and means the Rockets and players like Ariza can get into some real nasty slumps or hot streaks even over the course of a few months.

 

nice.

 

it's because we don't have anyone besides harden to create good 3's, for every guy with a quality pullup 3, there's 25 guys who need it to be catch and shoot

 

Mostly Ariza and Beverley. They would hesitate and then either try to drive to the basket or pull back out to the 3pt line.

I saw Harden did once, and Brewer and Josh a few times maybe.

 

The problem with this is where are you getting this 55% shot? The only place you can get a percentage that high is inside of 8 feet. It would be great if we could get all of our shots right at the basket.

If you are going to just step inside the 3 point line and take an 18 footer, that shot is 39%. That's 0.78 pts.