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Analysis of Floor Positioning

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Kim, Sep 30, 2006.

  1. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    With the addition of Bonzi, I'm proposing a linup of Rafer(or Head), Bonzi, T-Mac, Battier, and Yao. That's nothing new, but here I'm going to visually break it down, back it up with stats, and show why this works and where everyone must be positioned. I can do this for other linups too, but this is what I'm starting out with.

    [​IMG]

    Everybody knows Yao is monster inside. He's arguably the best in the league in post domination with his array of hooks, up and unders, and power moves. He's also efficient with his short jumpers and turnarounds on the baselines. Some have argued that JVG needs to open Yao up more and let him hit the "automatic" jumpers from the top of the key or something. I disagree with this, and the evidence shows (www.nba.com/hotzones) that Yao is not efficient at jumpshooting around the court. He's best inside.

    Shane Battier needs to be Yao's post entry passer from the same side as Yao, 3 pt corner area. Battier is smart and tall. If they stick the opposing PF on Battier, then it just clears up more space for Yao inside, and it draws away from the basket the opponent's strong rebounder. If they put the opposing SG on Battier and the PF on Bonzi, Battier will have even better looks at the kick out 3 pass from Yao.

    Below is a list of the top 32 3pt shooters from the corners in the NBA according to their shooting %.
    Rank--Team--Player--corner 3pt made/attempted--corner 3pt%--overall 3pt%
    Code:
    <table border="1" bordercolor="" width="0" bgcolor="">
    <tr>
    <td> 01 </td>
    <td> Phi </td>
    <td> Kyle Korver </td>
    <td> 51/96 </td>
    <td> 53.1 </td>
    <td> 42.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 02 </td>
    <td> SAS </td>
    <td> Brent Barry </td>
    <td> 31/60 </td>
    <td> 51.7 </td>
    <td> 39.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr> 
    <td> [B]03[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Det[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Rip Hamilton[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]41/83[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]49.4[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]45.8[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 04 </td>
    <td> Ind </td>
    <td> Stojakovic </td>
    <td> 47/97 </td>
    <td> 48.4 </td>
    <td> 40.1 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 05 </td>
    <td> Det </td>
    <td> Billups </td>
    <td> 33/68 </td>
    <td> 48.5 </td>
    <td> 43.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 06 </td>
    <td> LAC </td>
    <td> Radmanovic </td>
    <td> 32/66 </td>
    <td> 48.5 </td>
    <td> 39.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 07 </td>
    <td> Chi </td>
    <td> Chris Duhon </td>
    <td> 34/71 </td>
    <td> 47.9 </td>
    <td> 36.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 08 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> James Jones </td>
    <td> 41/86 </td>
    <td> 47.7 </td>
    <td> 38.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 09 </td>
    <td> Dal </td>
    <td> Jason Terry </td>
    <td> 50/106 </td>
    <td> 47.2 </td>
    <td> 41.1 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 10 </td>
    <td> Bos </td>
    <td> Scissorback </td>
    <td> 43/92 </td>
    <td> 46.7 </td>
    <td> 40.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 11 </td>
    <td> NYK </td>
    <td> Nate Robinson </td>
    <td> 28/60 </td>
    <td> 46.7 </td>
    <td> 39.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 12 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> Raja Bell </td>
    <td> 80/172 </td>
    <td> 46.5 </td>
    <td> 44.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 13 </td>
    <td> Ind </td>
    <td> Sarunas </td>
    <td> 25/54 </td>
    <td> 46.3 </td>
    <td> 36.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 14 </td>
    <td> Atl </td>
    <td> Joe Johnson </td>
    <td> 55/119 </td>
    <td> 46.2 </td>
    <td> 35.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]15[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Mem[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Battier[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]54/118[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]45.8[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]39.4[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 16 </td>
    <td> Mem </td>
    <td> Bobby Jax </td>
    <td> 53/116 </td>
    <td> 45.7 </td>
    <td> 38.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 17 </td>
    <td> Sea </td>
    <td> Earl Watson </td>
    <td> 25/55 </td>
    <td> 45.5 </td>
    <td> 40.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 18 </td>
    <td> Orl </td>
    <td> Turkeyglue </td>
    <td> 73/161 </td>
    <td> 45.3 </td>
    <td> 40.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 19 </td>
    <td> Mil </td>
    <td> Michael Redd </td>
    <td> 57/126 </td>
    <td> 45.3 </td>
    <td> 39.5 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 20 </td>
    <td> Tor </td>
    <td> Mike James </td>
    <td> 29/64 </td>
    <td> 45.3 </td>
    <td> 44.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 21 </td>
    <td> Bos </td>
    <td> LaFrentz </td>
    <td> 33/73 </td>
    <td> 45.2 </td>
    <td> 39.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]22[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Hou[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Rafer Alston[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]30/68[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]44.1[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]32.7[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]23[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Hou[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Luther Head[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]51/116[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]44.0[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]36.1[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]24[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]SAS[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Bruce Bowen[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]100/228[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]43.9[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]42.4[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 25 </td>
    <td> Tor </td>
    <td> Mo Pete </td>
    <td> 98/224 </td>
    <td> 43.8 </td>
    <td> 39.5 </td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    
    I've set my own parameters to meet this list. Besides accuracy there needed to be minimum volume (at least 25 makes). The list makes sense to me. Some players are pure shooters (Mike James, Peja, Terry)while others are corner specialists(Battier, Bowen). Some great shooters (like Nash and Nowitzki) don't spend much time in the corners by design(so they don't make the list b/c of volume), while other great 3pt shooters overall are not as good at hitting them from the corners (like Eddie Jones).

    Ray Allen is ranked 32nd in 3pt% from the corners (42.3%, 41.2% overall), does that mean Bruce Bowen (43.9% corners, 42.4% overall) is a better 3pt shooter than Ray Allen? Hell no. Ray Allen runs around screens, creates his own shots, and can shoot from all over the floor. Bruce Bowen cannot shoot the 3 anywhere except for the corners, but he understands the limits of his range and his game. He maximizes what he does well and doesn't shoot where he cannot hit well. That is why his statistical output in terms of 3pt% is better than Ray Allen.

    Shane Battier is similar to Bruce Bowen and smart like him. Battier doesn't average 39.4% free 3pt land b/c he has some great range and just runs around swacking from everywhere. He works on his shot (the shortest 3ball spots) and shoots open kick outs. This is where he can excel as a Rocket on offense. The top 25 list can be divided up into 3 tiers in terms of volume. Battier is at the top of tier 2. I expect him to increase his shooting volume next year greatly because Yao and T-Mac (and now Bonzi) command double-teams. Especially if the opponents decide to put a 6'5" guard on Battier to keep their post defender in, Battier should definitely get more shot attemps. I want him to be the Rockets' Bruce Bowen.

    The Rockets have Alston and Head, two guys who shoot the 3 ball well from the corners and straight away center, but suffer from the right-center 3 and left-center 3 positions. Luther Head from the corners and straight away 3 shot 66/154 for 42.9% last year. From right-center3 and left-center3 he shot 46/153 for 30.1%. Rafer Alston is the biggest culprit because he shot 52/120 for 43.3% combined from the corner 3's and straight center 3's, but his shooting from the right-center3 and left-center3 was 50/191 for 26.2%.

    This is called shot recognition and the Rockets miserably failed at it last year. Good teams like the Spurs and the Mavs and the Suns have not only good shooters, but shooters who know where they are good at. 2 years ago, the Rockets had a strong collection of shooters (Mike James, John Barry, David Wesley, Scott Padgett, Bob Sura) who could nail the 3ball from all over
    the court. Now they've let Wesley go and they lack shooters who aren't position specialists.

    They could remedy this in two ways. First, Rafer and Luther and T-Mac too (injuries aside, he cannot shoot like he did from 3ball last year if the Rockets are to go far...I don't care that he still commands a double team...that's all good and the Rockets will always benefit from his play, but his 3ball must get better and return to form if the Rockets are going to win BIG) could improve. That is why I highligted Rip Hamilton. Rip improved and became the best 3pt% shooter in the NBA after not being a threat in the past. You can add the Suns in here too. I remember m_cable or someone else writing about how the Suns practice shooting 3's for hours upon end, just running up and down and shooting 3's. It's not just because of Nash's open looks that make them good, but also it's because they have a systematic way of improving shooting for players.

    The 2nd remedy is improving shot selection, and I'm not just talking about open shots vs. tough shots. Look at Rafer's stats. Not only did he shoot the 3ball poorly from right-center and left-center, but also that's where he took the majority of his 3's! He took 191 3's from places where he couldn't hit and 120 3's from the places that he could. If Bruce Bowen spent the majority of his time jacking trey's from up top, he wouldn't be considered a 3pt specialist, and fans would be calling for his head.

    I put the responsibility for improvement in 3pt shooting and shot recognition squarely on the Players and Jeff Van Gundy. With a return to health of Yao and T-Mac and the addition of Bonzi, there will be open treys. If they players continue to take 3's from places that they cannot hit, it will only be a recipe for failure. Good teams know to maximize their strengths in shooting and minimize their weaknesses. If JVG and the Rockets fail to do this, they will not be amongst the elite.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Now I mentioned Bonzi and here is my justification for having him in the linup there instead of JHo. In terms of spacing, I would like Battier and Rafer/Head be on opposite corners, with Battier being the initial feeder on the near side. If the post needs to feed from up top, that is T-Mac land. I know Juwon can hit the mid-range jumper, but so can T-Mac. Bonzi will occupy the opposite FT elbow area from Yao. From there he will either take the mid-range jumper if sagged on (he was 23-44 last year from both elbows for 52.3%), cut to basket, or crash the weakside boards.

    Offensive Rebounding is very important. It can tear a team's heart out if you can follow up your misses with extra chances. The Rockets are a good defensive rebounding team, but not on offense. Especially with Yao in the game, they only rebounded 26.2% on offense last year. This is because Yao is their best offensive rebounder (8.2%) and he's the one usually shooting.
    Their guards rebounded worse last year than 2 years ago (mainly b/c Sura was out) and JHo is very below average at this, and when you have teams like the Mavs rebounding 33% of their own missed shots, you can see its importance.

    Now one might ponder that Bonzi is a good rebounder for a guard, but he's no power forward. If you look at the statistics, you can see that Bonzi is a great rebounder for a guard, the best offensive-rebounding guard in the entire League. And Bonzi is even up there when it comes to ALL PLAYERS.

    Rank--Team--Player--Offensive Rebounding %--OReb per game
    Code:
    <table border="1" width="100" >
    <tr>
    <td> 01 </td>
    <td> Dal </td>
    <td> Erick Ampier </td>
    <td> 15.4 </td>
    <td> 3.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 02 </td>
    <td> Ind </td>
    <td> Jeff Foster </td>
    <td> 14.8 </td>
    <td> 3.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 03 </td>
    <td> Chi </td>
    <td> Tyson Chandler </td>
    <td> 12.8 </td>
    <td> 3.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 04 </td>
    <td> Cle </td>
    <td> Z Ilgauskas </td>
    <td> 11.6 </td>
    <td> 3.1 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 05 </td>
    <td> Atl </td>
    <td> Zaza Pachula </td>
    <td> 11.4 </td>
    <td> 3.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 06 </td>
    <td> Por </td>
    <td> Joel Pryzbilla </td>
    <td> 11.2 </td>
    <td> 2.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 07 </td>
    <td> Det </td>
    <td> Ben Wallace </td>
    <td> 11.0 </td>
    <td> 3.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 08 </td>
    <td> Orl </td>
    <td> Dwight Howard </td>
    <td> 10.9 </td>
    <td> 3.5 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 09 </td>
    <td> Mia </td>
    <td> Shaq </td>
    <td> 10.8 </td>
    <td> 2.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 10 </td>
    <td> Cha </td>
    <td> Emeka Okafor </td>
    <td> 10.4 </td>
    <td> 3.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 11 </td>
    <td> Was </td>
    <td> Brendan Haywood </td>
    <td> 10.4 </td>
    <td> 2.5 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 12 </td>
    <td> Den </td>
    <td> Reggie Nutgrabber </td>
    <td> 9.8 </td>
    <td> 2.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 13 </td>
    <td> LAL </td>
    <td> Kwame Brown </td>
    <td> 9.7 </td>
    <td> 2.5 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 14 </td>
    <td> Mil </td>
    <td> Jamal Magliore </td>
    <td> 9.6 </td>
    <td> 2.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 15 </td>
    <td> SAS </td>
    <td> Tim Duncan </td>
    <td> 9.0 </td>
    <td> 2.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]16[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Sac[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Bonzi Wells[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]9.0[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]2.7[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 17 </td>
    <td> Sac </td>
    <td> Kenny Thomas </td>
    <td> 9.0 </td>
    <td> 2.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 18 </td>
    <td> LAC </td>
    <td> Elton Brand </td>
    <td> 8.3 </td>
    <td> 3.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> [B]19[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Hou[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]Ming Yao[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]8.3[/B] </td>
    <td> [B]2.6[/B] </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 20 </td>
    <td> Min </td>
    <td> KG </td>
    <td> 8.2 </td>
    <td> 2.8 </td>
    </tr>
    </table>

    Now the ranking list above needs to be interpreted correctly. Even though Shaq gets a lower % of offesive boards than say Dwight Howard, I'd argue that Shaq is a better offensive rebounder because he spends more time with the ball in has hands. You have to view the list above and keep in mind that some players are primary scorers with less O-rebounding opportunity. Some players play away from the bucket (KG) and other players never are an option on Offense and can just attack the boards on offense for putbacks and focus soley on that (Ampier, Foster, Chandler, Nutgrabber). Whatever the case my be, this is all of their statistical output. And according to the % of offensive rebounding, that list is accurate in terms of statistically having the 20 best. The list is also interesting that it shows how Shawn Marion is an overrated offensive rebounder. Even though he's near the top at 3.1 per game, it's because of the Suns' pace that he gets so many more opportunities, and it
    became very evident during the Western Conference Finals against the Mavs that the Suns were overmatched in all rebounding departments.

    And look at Bonzi Wells sitting there at number 16, the only guard in amongst PowerForwards and Centers. And through the argument out the window that Yao's O-Reb at 19th will hurt Bonzi's productiveness, because Bonzi played last year about 1/3rd of the time on the court with Kenny Thomas, who is 17th is O-Rebounding %, which means I expect Bonzi to do the same here, especially if the Rockets play him right.

    Bonzi is brute force below and can totally out muscle most guards for not only points, but also grabbing huge boards. I also believe that he's quick and strong enough to get his fair share of rebounds if other teams decide to put their PF on Bonzi. And not only that, but as I mentioned above, putting a slow PF on Bonzi would mean a SG would be on Battier, and that's even
    better for Shane b/c it he would need less space to shoot over a guard from the corner 3 when the guard is trying to recover from collapsing against Yao.
    -------------------------------------------------------------------

    All in all, I am very pleased with the acquisition of Bonzi Wells. I disagree with those who argue the Wells-James debate in the sense that they are different players that fill different needs from the Rockets. They don't compete with eachother in that sense. The Rockets still need James' 3pt shooting, and Luther, Alston, and T-MAC all need to step it up next year from 3ball land.
     
  2. KeepKenny

    KeepKenny Contributing Member

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    Very impressive analysis. It makes me feel a little better about how Bonzi will fit in. I did not know that Rafer was so efficient from the corner.

    Unfortunately, I wish it were as simple as choosing to shoot more from the corner. Opposing defenses know the same stats, and force guys to shoot from the longer spots.

    Good job.
     
  3. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    Bruce Bowen can only shoot from the corner and he still does it, attempting over 220 shots from the corners and very few elsewhere. I know defenses prep for it, and so that's why the Rockets need to have better balance in 3-pt shooting. Their guys need to improve at hitting in all 3pt zones (or get players that can). But they also need to recognize that if their 3pt disparity from zones continue, they cannot feed into it. Rafer cannot be allowed to shoot 3's from spots where he is 26%! It's understandable every once in a while, but to shoot the vast majority of 3's from your weakest shooting zone is counter-productive.
     
  4. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Contributing Member

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    Fantastic work. We already knew Battier was more accurate from the corner, but this was very in-depth.

    I had no idea Rafer was so accurate from the corner, but a PG's job usually doesn't require them to hang out there. Last year, Rafer had to carry some of the scoring load so he couldn't be all that selective with his shooting. I hope to see his looks get a little more open. Luther may not see much playing time unless he's improved from last season. It'll be very important for him to be consistent from every spot on the 3pt arc.

    Bonzi is a good rebounder, but he had the liberty of just being able to roam around the hoop on offense last year. The kings lack of a low-post threat combined with Brad Miller's range meant Bonzi could just swoop in for an offensive rebound against another guard. We won't have that. Yao will be on the low block for every second of the shot clock. Bonzi MUST be able to give Yao space. Right now, I don't even think his mid-range shot is as good as Juwan's. We'll be asking him to do things he's not used to.

    And look at those 3pt%'s just makes me want James Jones that much more. And I wonder what Novak's %'s will look like.
     
  5. DraftBoy10

    DraftBoy10 Member

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    I'd have to agree with your analyis. If Van Gundy knows Battier, he'll know that the baseline areas are his favorite spot and he's just about always on from there. If we were to do this, I don't think T-Mac should be the 3pt threat, instead he should be the penetrator to kick out to Rafer, Head or Battier, or Wells from mid-range, or dish it off to Yao for a dunk. Or just to score on his own.
     
  6. Omer

    Omer Member

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    Great visuals, tables, and analysis. This is reassuring my belief in having our best 5 start.
     
  7. BokitackledKarl

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    good work kim. i am very excited about seeing how our team plays together. hopefully we can recapture some of the chemistry we had 2 yrs ago. and i really hope someone will bring back the hand signals after we make 3s...maybe sura if he comes back healthy. but i suppose we need to become better at making 3s in the first place.
     
  8. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    Yeah, but he hit that 3 from the "elbow" in the 4th quarter of game 7 against the Pistons. :D

    Great work guy. Thanks for the big contribution to the debate of how Bonzi fits in the offense. This thread is 5 stars on the opening post alone.
     
  9. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    I never realized that Rafer was that effective in the corner. I thought he was bad from all over.

    However, the one problem with the corner is it is harder to get the shot off there. It has to be a quick catch an pop. You've got 2 baselines that are helping to guard you there, so it is a lot easier for the defender to step out, especially since it is a shorter distance.

    All the same, I have imagined the offense just like this. With one major difference however. I would be tempted to put the point guard strong side with Yao for the dump in. Yao can attack one on one and I believe he has figured out how to attack when doubled by a smaller defender. And when you flatten out the corners like that, you leave McGrady with gobs of space to work from around the arc.

    Another thing I would like to see along with this data is an analysis of Bonzi's 3 point shooting percentages from different areas. You know, he is not exactly terrible from 3 point land over his career. He's like 33% for his career. Last year, he really didn't shoot the 3 ball at all. Probably most of those 45 3 pointers he took were desparation heaves to beat the shot clock. The 3 years that he has taken the most threes, he has been 1 out of 3 except for one year in Portland where it slipped to less than 30%. I think his 3 point shooting is too maligned.
     
  10. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    The hotzones stats only go back 3 years, so I can tell what Bonzi has done since 2003 in terms of 3pt shooting.

    From the corners: 14/41 + 28/70 + 8/33 = 50/144 for 34.7%
    From straight away 3: 2/3 + 0/3 + 1/2 = 3/8 for 37.5%
    Elboy 3's: 6/22 + 8/20 + 1/9 = 15/51 for 29.4%

    Either by design or...well, I just don't think Bonzi himself believes in his 3pt ability..so he doesn't take them. These are stats for 3 years, so that's 193 games for him and 203 trey attempts.

    So Bonzi has take 1 three point attempt per game over the last 3 years. The vast majority of treys come from the corners, and he averages about 35%. It's not bad, but it's not great.

    I don't think one would classify his 3pter as a weapon, anymore than one would talk about Yao's deep jumper. It's something that they can do in emergencies, but would rather not because they don't do it well and they do other things much better.
     
  11. Honey Bear

    Honey Bear Contributing Member

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    He's not confident shooting too far out. Shoots much better from the corners because of the close proximity to the basket (reminiscient of every other shooter on our team like Kim said). Plus with his post up game you want him closer to the basket, isolating when possible. Even with the catch and shoot opportunities he will get with Yao and McGrady commanding attention, I don't see him taking more than 30 3-pters this season.
     
  12. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    I'm convinced he believes in it, but his greatest strength is back to basket post ups from the top and using his strength over weaker SGs. I don't think that means he feels he can't shoot the 3 ball. But why shoot it, when you can back down your defender and get the dink layup at a 60% hit rate????

    My point is he is right at or over 33% from 3 for the most part. So, if we are spreading the floor and we need some extra space for Yao, Bonzi can hit from 3 just fine. And I would bet in our offense, he will be asked to spot up some with Yao and McGrady in the game. I would imagine most of his post up game will be played when Yao is out of the game. And as long as he hits 1 out of 3 from 3 point line, that is just as good as 50% from 2 point land. And when you combine that with him hitting 60% on the post ups when Yao is out, we could turn into a highly efficient offensive machine.

    I'm still blown away by that data that showed the percentages of Rafer from the corner.

    Do you have a list of the top 3 point shooters from the wings and the top, and if so, do you have the ability to break it up even to which specific wing?

    Great thread.
     
  13. Tango

    Tango Contributing Member

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    Kim: Nice analysis!

    Another problem with Rafer and Head getting shots in the corners is that this shot is usually after the ball is swung around the horn or cross-lane pass to get it there. I don't see Rafer in that type of position playing PG very often. Head I might believe that might be the case playing a 2.

    I don't know if it's a shot selection issue. You can tell by the shot distribution that the L and R high wings are where the feedout from the post usually is for the PG.

    What's really sickening is if you bring up side by side comparison between Alston and Mike James. More salt in the wound of that entire deal.
     
  14. Van Gundier

    Van Gundier Member

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    Nice analysis everyonem Just adding a couple thoughts for discussion:

    1. Would it cause problems in transition D to have 2 guys sitting in corners near the baseline? These guys would seem to be at a disadvantage as far as running back goes.

    2. Battier avg 2 off.boards a game. Pretty good for a guy spending a good chunk of time around the perimeter. He should be useful
    for offensive rebounding as well.

    3. Thinking about the use of Hayes: if the opposing 4 is a good defensive rebounder, play Battier to draw him out to the corner. If the opposing 4 is not good at defensive boards, play Hayes to bust his ass.
     
  15. krocket

    krocket Contributing Member

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    Gosh Kim:

    What are you doing on this board? It sounds like you actually know something about basketball.


    :: This is exactly the kind of moneyball analysis that Morey can provide to JVG ::
     
    #15 krocket, Oct 1, 2006
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2006
  16. ccjj

    ccjj Contributing Member

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    Kim, do you do this for living? :eek:
     
  17. fuzzy88

    fuzzy88 Member

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    OMG, amazing insight and analysis, Kim!
    You should send this to JVG - maybe he can learn a few things from you as well. Better yet, maybe they should have you on their staff.
     
  18. Rockets2K

    Rockets2K Clutch Crew

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    You can tell Kim believes in quality over quantity. :)

    awesome job.
     
  19. Kim

    Kim Contributing Member

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    Under the same parameters of being in the top % and also having at least 25 makes, here is the list for top elbow 3pt shooters. Noticable missings: league 3pt leader Rip Hamilton and of course Bruce Bowen can't hit here either, and guys like Dirk and Arenas are great shooters with high volume, but they just didn't make the cut. I'd still argue that Dirk and Arenas are better 3pt shooters from the elbows than say Matt Bonner...but these are the hard stats...it does show though that you can say Ray Allen takes similar shots to Arenas, and Ray Allen is still up here, so I'd argue that Ray Allen is a better 3pt shooter from the elbows (right-center and left-center)

    By the way, I don't have these lists; I gather the data from various sources and make the charts myself,it can contain errors, but I think my info is pretty good. I'll do a straight away 3 pt chart later. I can separate the elbows, but I got lazy.

    Rank--Team--Player--Elbow3's attempt/made--Elbow3pt%--Overall3pt%
    Code:
    <table border="2" bordercolor="" 
    
    width="0" bgcolor="">
    <tr>
    <td> 01 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> Leandro Barbosa </td>
    <td> 51/100 </td>
    <td> 51.0 </td>
    <td> 44.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 02 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> Steve Nash </td>
    <td> 121/269 </td>
    <td> 45.0 </td>
    <td> 43.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 03 </td>
    <td> Tor </td>
    <td> Matt Bonner </td>
    <td> 65/145 </td>
    <td> 44.8 </td>
    <td> 42.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 04 </td>
    <td> Chi </td>
    <td> Ben Gordon </td>
    <td> 101/226 </td>
    <td> 44.7 </td>
    <td> 43.5 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 05 </td>
    <td> Atl </td>
    <td> Tyronne Lue </td>
    <td> 37/83 </td>
    <td> 44.6 </td>
    <td> 45.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr> 
    <td> 06 </td>
    <td> Det </td>
    <td> Chaucy Billups </td>
    <td> 121/275 </td>
    <td> 44.0 </td>
    <td> 43.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 07 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> Raja Bell </td>
    <td> 109/249 </td>
    <td> 43.8 </td>
    <td> 44.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 08 </td>
    <td> Tor </td>
    <td> Mike James </td>
    <td> 97/222 </td>
    <td> 43.7 </td>
    <td> 44.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 09 </td>
    <td> LAL </td>
    <td> Brian Cook  </td>
    <td> 26/60 </td>
    <td> 43.3 </td>
    <td> 42.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 10 </td>
    <td> Mil </td>
    <td> Charlie Bell </td>
    <td> 38/89 </td>
    <td> 42.7 </td>
    <td> 42.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 11 </td>
    <td> Mem </td>
    <td> Mike Miller </td>
    <td> 104/250 </td>
    <td> 41.6 </td>
    <td> 40.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 12 </td>
    <td> Dal </td>
    <td> Jason Terry </td>
    <td> 101/245 </td>
    <td> 41.2 </td>
    <td> 41.1 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 13 </td>
    <td> Sea </td>
    <td> Ray Allen </td>
    <td> 185/451 </td>
    <td> 41.0 </td>
    <td> 41.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 14 </td>
    <td> Mem </td>
    <td> Bobby Jax </td>
    <td> 69/169 </td>
    <td> 40.8 </td>
    <td> 38.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 15 </td>
    <td> Mil </td>
    <td> Bobby Simmons </td>
    <td> 50/123 </td>
    <td> 40.7 </td>
    <td> 42.0 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 16 </td>
    <td> Uta </td>
    <td> Deron Williams </td>
    <td> 63/155 </td>
    <td> 40.6 </td>
    <td> 41.6 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 17 </td>
    <td> NYK </td>
    <td> Nate Robinson </td>
    <td> 28/69 </td>
    <td> 40.6 </td>
    <td> 39.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 18 </td>
    <td> Was </td>
    <td> Antawn Jamison </td>
    <td> 91/226 </td>
    <td> 40.3 </td>
    <td> 39.4 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 19 </td>
    <td> Mia </td>
    <td> James Posey </td>
    <td> 57/142 </td>
    <td> 40.1 </td>
    <td> 40.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 20 </td>
    <td> SAS </td>
    <td> Manu Ginobili </td>
    <td> 54/133 </td>
    <td> 40.1 </td>
    <td> 38.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 21 </td>
    <td> LAC </td>
    <td> Sam I Am </td>
    <td> 50/123 </td>
    <td> 40.1 </td>
    <td> 36.8 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 22 </td>
    <td> Bos </td>
    <td> LaFrentz </td>
    <td> 60/150 </td>
    <td> 40.0 </td>
    <td> 39.2 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 23 </td>
    <td> Chi </td>
    <td> Nocioni </td>
    <td> 50/126 </td>
    <td> 39.7 </td>
    <td> 39.1 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 24 </td>
    <td> GSW </td>
    <td> Derek Fisher </td>
    <td> 59/149 </td>
    <td> 39.6 </td>
    <td> 39.7 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 25 </td>
    <td> Pho </td>
    <td> Eddie House </td>
    <td> 80/204 </td>
    <td> 39.2 </td>
    <td> 38.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 26 </td>
    <td> LAL </td>
    <td> Vujacic  </td>
    <td> 40/102 </td>
    <td> 39.2 </td>
    <td> 34.3 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 27 </td>
    <td> Cha </td>
    <td> Matt Carroll </td>
    <td> 34/87 </td>
    <td> 39.1 </td>
    <td> 38.9 </td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
    <td> 28 </td>
    <td> Sac </td>
    <td> Bibby </td>
    <td> 129/332 </td>
    <td> 38.9 </td>
    <td> 38.6 </td>
    </tr>
    </table>
    
    Edit:
    So to make this post Rockets related, it's evident from the list that there are no Rockets who are great at making the elbow 3pter. I'd take that even further by saying the Rockets are actually terrible at hitting the elbow 3pter.

    Last year they were 235/789 as a team from the elbows 3pters for 29.8%
    And they were 232/609 from the other 3 zones (corners and straight) for 38.1%, which is quite nice.
    56.4% of their 3pt attempts come from the zones where they shoot the worst. And add to that, their best elbow 3pt shooter was David Wesley, and now he's gone.

    2 years ago, the Rockets were a much more balanced 3pt shooting team. They shot 36.4% from the elbows 3pter in 2004. Maybe this is where Steve Novak, John Lucas III, and Scotty the Body can step in.

    If JVG and the Rockets' system forces them to take most of their 3pters from the elbows, then they somehow must do better. As I stated earlier, Rafer, Luther, and T-Mac must improve from there, or they have to take less elbow shots.


    The Spurs are a balanced 3pt threat from all over the court. They run inside out through Duncan. I don't see why the Rockets should not emulate the Spurs 3pt attempts. Last year the Spurs took 611 treys from the elbows shooting a solid 35.8%.

    But the Spurs were still able to take 735 shots from the corners(edit: i mistakenly wrote elbows) + straight away treys. They shot 41.2% from those 3 zones combined. Now they shot better than the Rockets across the board. However, they shot more 3pters from their best zones and less from the worst (the elbows). The Rockets did the exact opposite of the Spurs even though their good zones were the same as the Spurs.

    So I don't buy the argument of not being able to proparly assert yourself in position to take those shots. I also don't buy they bad defense argument. Both players don't have to park at the corners. 1 rotates in and the other out to maintain defensive floor balance. The Spurs are a great Defensive team and limit transition buckets, yet they are still a lot more shots from the corners than the Rockets do.

    This is a failure of coaching. The Rockets must shoot better, but they absolutely need to recognize that they're current spacing is disadvantageous. I really hope they can reverse this terrible trend of last year.
     
    #19 Kim, Oct 1, 2006
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2006
  20. liu1107

    liu1107 Contributing Member

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    One problem is If put Battier next to Yao.. when he passes to Yao.. Battier won't cut in to create space cuz he's too big to do that efficiently... so he stays at the arc.. In most of cases oppenent that is on Battier won't doouble Yao compeletly .. instead they semi-double Yao which we dont want....so i think its better to put a smaller guy to do the entry pass and cut in to create space for Yao
     

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