Amick: Rockets expect Howard to opt out this summer

That it's a done deal, he's being dealt to Atlanta? :grin:

No, I don't.

Doesn't mean a deal to ATL can't/won't happen later but...

Rick Kamla doesn't break news but he is "high profile" as he works for NBATV.

Not one other person is reporting this?

Not Adrian Wojnarowski?
Marc Stein?
Sam Amick?
Jeff Zillgitt?
Brian Windhorst?
Marc Spears?
Shams Charania?
Ken Berger?
(Kamla's partner) David Aldridge?

Even the non-legit 'insiders'?
Chris Broussard?
Chris Sheridan?
Steve Kyler?

 

Fegan gonna get him out of here

 

thats how i was figurin it - as i threw out in the other thread... but figured id get your take.. thanks for the opinion.

 

This is what happens when crappy reporters and analyst say when teams that supposed to contend are struggling. It happened last year when Tom Brady was struggling and the Patriots were losing. Crap load of reporters, analyst and crappy websites started making up rumors about Tom Brady getting traded. Look what happened? You have to be an idiot to believe all these crap websites. And I hate all of you to even pay attention to threads like this.

 

I think Capela's development and Dwight's decline both comes into play here. If Clint can give you 75%+ of Dwight's current capacity for next to nothing salary wise, I can't see Houston willing to spend new max money on Dwight for that extra 25%. That money would be better spent on upgrading the PF spot by about 50%...

 

Hope Morey at least gets Winslow out of him

 

Best post on the subject.

 

....said the guy who clicked on and posted in the thread... lol

 

Dwight Howard will get a max offer from someone. There are more teams flush with cash in 2016 than good players to pick from.

Personally I would try to sign Drummond or see if I can get whitehead for less. Hassan Whitehead rebounds and blocks shots like the Rockets want and doesn't demand shots.

 

That's all the talking heads on Dallas radio were gleeping about today. It makes no sense for him to come up here given the fragmented state of the Mavs roster but if Cuban is stupid enough to give him $30M+, then by all means take the money, flash that big grin for the cameras and make another cartoon video with Mr. Shark Tank.

 

Makes sense for him to opt out. He's declining and it makes more sense to cash in on the chance to get multiple years of good pay vs one year of great pay.

 

Every time someone mentions Winslow, a puppy dies.

 

Sad but true .

 

The selection I want isn't an answer choice:

He'll take higher to stay in Houston, but it won't be a max deal. Somewhere in the range of 25 million per year.

 

People are just so forgetful of playoff-intensity Dwight. Yes he's declined, no doubt, but he was always there for us when it mattered most.

I think he either takes less to stay or someone offers him more to leave.

 

He'll take less to stay here. 3 years and $60m on a declining contract is my prediction. By the time Capela is ready to take over, Dwight will be making just $15m in an NBA where the MLE is around $7m. That's a great deal IMO. Non-contenders will offer him more than that but there is zero chance he'll join a team that has no chance of winning its conference.

I expect the only real contender to be Atlanta who could really use him, Horford and Millsap as a killer PF/C trio and get a leg up on the Cavs. Dallas will offer him something just to irritate Morey, but that's just drama. Cuban knows he'd be stupid to over pay Dwight, especially after he severely overpaid for a Chandler Parsons who ended up having knee problems.

I honestly also wouldn't be shocked to see him taking even less money than 3 years @ $60m from us. I can see that being shaved to $50m as long as the first year is $20m+.

 

i truly think there is about 0% chance he is with the rockets next season. morey has to be smarter than that.

i personally like dwight but he is not even really that close to the player he was 3-4 years ago. and now 2-3 years from... forget about it

 

No way in hell can we offer this guy big bucks. We have to trade him and hope we can sift some talent out (Winslow would work) without taking big money back.

 

After reading some non-homer trade proposals from ESPN "Insider", it is obvious it is not worth the p.r. hit from future free agents to trade Dwight without a trade demand. We are better off letting him walk and having more cap room to attract a top shelf free agent, than trade him for a bag of beans:

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/stor...otential-dwight-howard-trades-houston-rockets

Five potential trades if the Rockets move Dwight Howard

Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writer

Since a report Tuesday that Dwight Howard is unhappy with his role on the Houston Rockets, talk has quickly turned to the possibility of Howard getting traded -- despite the fact that Howard publicly denied any unhappiness after Tuesday's loss to the Sacramento Kings.

I'm not sure Howard's mood should actually matter. Whether he wants out or not, the Rockets should be looking to move the eight-time All-Star center.


The long-term move: Trading Howard

Here are three reasons why a Howard trade makes sense:

1. The Rockets shouldn't pay Dwight's next contract

Howard can opt to become a free agent next summer or play out the final season of his contract for $23.3 million before hitting the market in 2017. Either way, Howard will surely be looking for similar money to what he's making now while locking in more years, having turned 30 last week.

Not only is Howard now past the prime years for most players, he's carrying heavy mileage because he entered the NBA directly out of high school. While he's no LeBron James in terms of minutes played, Howard is closing in on 30,000 for his career -- more than Dwyane Wade has played at age 33.

Add in Howard's troublesome injury history, including back surgery and knee injuries that limited him throughout last season, and he might never be an All-Star-caliber player again.

With his declining productivity and limited availability (Howard was unable to play both games of back-to-backs at the beginning of the season), Howard ranks 58th in the league in my wins above replacement player metric this season and 50th in wins generated according to ESPN's real plus-minus.

Given the number of teams with cap space and the limited number of worthwhile free agents available in 2016, paying Howard $20-plus million a year during the decline phase of his career might make sense for some teams -- but not the Rockets, who have consistently been a player for the top free agents on the market. They can do better with the money.

2. Houston isn't going anywhere this season, anyway

Everything in the previous section was true before the season, and trading Howard would have seemed unthinkable then. Houston was focused on Howard's value to a championship contender, not his next contract. That should no longer be the case.

While the Rockets have rebounded a bit since starting 4-7 under Kevin McHale, their 12-14 record actually overstates how well the team has played. Houston's minus-3.0 point differential ranks 11th in the Western Conference. As a result, projections using ESPN's basketball power index have the Rockets making the playoffs less than half the time.

Even if Houston does make the postseason, it's hard to envision a scenario where the Rockets could threaten the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder in the West. As a result, it's time for Houston to look to the future.

3. The Rockets have a center of the future

When Houston looks ahead, the team's center isn't Howard -- it's Clint Capela, the 21-year-old Swiss big man who has started at times next to Howard at power forward. Despite lacking floor spacing, that combo has been stunningly effective this season, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points per 100 possessions in 84 minutes according to NBA.com/Stats. And lineups with just Capela (minus-0.9 net rating) have been better than those with just Howard (minus-2.1).

Capela's individual stats also suggest a bright future for the second-year player. He's averaging 14.6 points, 12.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per 36 minutes. According to Basketball Reference, just five players have topped 14 points, 12 boards and two blocks per 36 in their age-21 season: Andrew Bynum, Darryl Dawkins, Andre Drummond, Moses Malone and Shaquille O'Neal. (Howard just missed this group, having averaged 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes in his age-21 campaign.)

14 Points, 12 Rebounds, Two Blocks Per 36 Minutes In Age-21 Season
PLAYER SEASON TEAM AGE P36 R36 B36
Moses Malone 1976-77 BUF/HOU 21 15.6 15.4 2.6
Darryl Dawkins 1976-77 PHI 20 16.3 12.1 2.6
Shaquille O'Neal 1992-93 ORL 20 22.2 13.2 3.4
Andrew Bynum 2007-08 LAL 20 16.4 12.7 2.6
Andre Drummond 2014-15 DET 21 16.3 15.9 2.2
Clint Capela 2015-16 HOU 21 14.6 12.5 2.1

Perhaps Capela isn't better than Howard today, but projecting ahead over the next few seasons, his development curve is trending upward while Howard's is trending downward. And Capela's presence also gives the Rockets more options in a Howard trade because they don't need to get a replacement center in return.

The challenge: Finding a workable Howard package

Despite that flexibility, figuring out what team might be willing to offer the right package for Howard is perhaps the biggest impediment to a trade. At this point, a Howard rental wouldn't make much sense; any team dealing for him would have to realistically believe it could re-sign him next summer. It also must have a need in the middle and big enough contracts to match Howard's salary. That leaves only a few reasonable options.

Boston Celtics

Package: David Lee, Tyler Zeller, future first-round pick (See in ESPN trade machine)

Lee wouldn't have much value to the Rockets, who might just buy him out. Besides offering some flexibility with the hard cap Houston is working under this year after using its non-taxpayer mid-level exception, this trade is all about getting one of Boston's huge stockpile of picks to flip in another trade. That could work out like when the Rockets traded Kyle Lowry to the Toronto Raptors for a lottery pick that ended up being a key part of the James Harden deal months later.

New Orleans Pelicans

Package: Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon (See in ESPN trade machine)

This trade would give Houston maximum cap flexibility and upgrade the Rockets' shooting dramatically. However, adding a veteran center next to Anthony Davis is probably the exact opposite direction the Pelicans should be headed.

Orlando Magic

Package: Channing Frye, Nikola Vucevic and Jason Smith (See in ESPN trade machine)

I like the idea of Howard returning home to provide a defensive upgrade in the middle for a Magic team that already has the league's seventh-best defensive rating under Scott Skiles. But would Orlando really trade a 25-year-old center for a 30-year-old one? And Houston would probably want another team to take on Frye's long-term salary.

Phoenix Suns

Package: Tyson Chandler, Markieff Morris (See in ESPN trade machine)

ESPN's Calvin Watkins has reported that the Rockets have interest in Morris. While they probably weren't thinking about trading Howard to get him, Chandler could be a credible replacement in the middle -- if Houston is willing to take on the remaining three-plus years on his contract.

Washington Wizards

Package: Marcin Gortat, Nenê, draft considerations (See in ESPN trade machine)

Howard would be an ideal fit for the four-out system the Wizards have moved to this season, and if he opts in Washington would probably still have enough cap space next summer to sign a max free agent (read: Kevin Durant). But the Wizards would leave themselves perilously thin in the middle in case of a Howard injury, and it's not clear his former backup (Gortat) would be enough of a return for Houston to deal.

Are there teams that would want a three-time defensive player of the year? Surely. Whether the Rockets can find a deal that works for all involved is another question. But they should be trying.