Bobby made this point already, but you can't just group every player who is a "bad" jumpshooter in the same category. Like Scoot, for example, is a "bad" jump shooter, but if you watch him shoot, he knows how to shoot a basketball. His shot form looks nice. He shot 78% on free throws, which is good, and that's a pretty good indicator of shooting ability. So I'm comfortable with the idea that Scoot could become a much better jump shooter. But right now he's "bad". I don't think you can put Amen in the same category, it's not accurate to just say they're both "bad". Amen shoots the ball like someone who has never seen anyone shoot a basketball before. And he's shooting airballs, shots off the side of the backboard, it's really not even close. And he's an equally terrible free throw shooter. I'm fine spending a top 5 pick on someone who is in the Scoot tier of bad shooters, but not comfortable spending a top 5 pick on someone in the Amen tier of bad shooters.
Scoot is not a bad jump shooter on every level, like my question asked. Scoot is a solid mid range shooter. Solid free throw shooter. He only struggles with 3’s really. Obviously he’s not what I’m talking about in my question. I think you’ve basically answered my question though - your answer is no. That’s cool. I disagree. And btw, Amen shot 69% on FT’s this year and 27% on NBA line threes across his full season, regular season and playoffs. He’s a bad shooter on every level, but it’s an exaggeration that he’s some kind of abomination unlike anyone who’s ever been drafted high before. Just top 10 picks from the last 3 drafts: Scottie Barnes: 62% FT, 27% 3P (college line) Jeremy Sochan: 58% FT, 29% 3P (college line) Josh Giddey: 69% FT, 29% 3P (NBA line) Jonathan Kuminga: 62% FT, 29% 3P (NBA line) LaMelo Ball: 72% FT, 25% 3P (NBA line) Amen Thompson: 69% FT, 27% 3P (NBA line) His form is poor, I agree, and would need to be remade like a bunch of these guys were. But Amen’s percentages are not an outlier among bad shooters - that claim is hyperbolic.
One thing worth pointing out--Amen Thompson was truly abominable to a level we've never seen from a guard... the season before this one. In 2021-22 in OTE his stats were 20% from 3 and 53% from the FT line. This is the reason he was not an extremely high-ranked high school prospect. So to all the people saying, "if he's such a hard worker why is he still a bad shooter?" Well, he actually did make enormous strides this season. It just seems like his starting point was beyond terrible, way more than most guys. (Probably because he's so athletically gifted that he never needed to shoot in high school.) Amen was also definitely still changing his mechanics and in the midst of rebuilding his form throughout the season, even close to the end. My question is, where will that process be by the time we hit Summer League? You know that's going to be his sole focus, and you know this is a kid who wants to work. Very curious what his shot is going to look like by the time we hit preseason ball.
None of those guys played in the OTE, more than the line distance whats more important is the quality of defenders you are facing. Lamelo Balls' 25% is better than Kuminga's 29% for example. OTE defenders are teenagers so I can only assume Amen would prob be 20% in NBL or something.
His percentage would probably be a bit lower, but like most hyper-athletic bad shooters, he was already only shooting when left wide open this season, so I don't know if it would be that different. More likely he would just have taken fewer three pointers since closeouts would be better.
I think as long as people are closing out on him, I think we'd be fine. The problem is not really him missing shots, it is the oppenents clogging the paint and taking away his driving ability and destroying spacing. I am warming up to drafting Amen - he is a project and he is a project with at least one giant glaring weakness, but he also has probably the most upside of anyone in the draft not named Victor. With his size, athleticism and playmaking he has MVP potential. I am still scared of his bust potential though... Several analysts have him as the #3 or even #2 prospect in this draft. Several are also projecting Brandon Miller to drop to 4, because another team may fall in love with Amen. Kinda like what happened to Jabari, a player with a lower projected ceiling but a very high floor, can easily drop behind high upside picks.
this is just poor play design from philly though. Dribble Hand-offs to shooters would make this sort of defense impossible. There's a reason why Draymond can be on the floor with Looney/Bogut/Iguodala
Just for fun (cause I'm weird), I tried projecting some numbers for Amen just to get an idea of what his TS%/PPS could end up being, even if he shoots just 25% from 3 and 66% from FT. I'm assuming a 60% rim finishing (I know some are thinking he'll struggle, but I feel he should be at least as good at JG?). Also assuming a .300 FTr (kinda low IMO). Oh yeah and I'm assuming 20% of his FGAs are 3s....just because (I want him to shoot them). I suppose worst case, you end up with a guy with a shot distribution like Westbrook (primarily just focusing on rim shots vs non-rim shot 2s because I'm lazy), and shooting like 33% on those non-rim 2s (which I think is worse than Westbrook actually). Yeah you'd end up with something like 47% TS, .86 PPS if I did my math right. If you use HOU Westbrook shot distribution, you go up to like 49%/.9pps. Which is still pretty bad. If you start using Ben Simmons as a model, you could end up with 52% TS, .97 PPS. If you use Ben's "best" year (i.e., most shots at rim), you end up with 54% TS, 1.02 PPS. OK that's still not great....but like Marcus Smart is a career 51% TS (54%ish the last few years tops). Actually PJ Tucker was 54% TS in that 2017-2018 season. He did explode to 65% in the playoffs that year, though then you had guys like EG and Harden putting up 55% and 53% TS. Obviously those 2 were a focus of defenses, so not saying those are inefficient guys of course. At that point, I feel like you're starting to get in the ballpark of a decent efficiency for a playoff team's least efficient scorer. Now maybe efficiency falls off a cliff in the playoffs due to schemes/adjustments/etc. But yeah we're still talking about a guy with 25% 3pt and 66% FT. You could probably tweak some other numbers to improve efficiency too (I think his FTr could be higher?). None of this takes into account offense generated from playmaking (i.e., hopefully overall team offense is more efficient with Amen playing), nor would it take into account any defense Amen could offer. You can swap out Amen's name with someone like Anthony Black, Scoot Henderson (likely with better splits though), or whoever. I mostly just wanted to run numbers to find the numerical impact of shooting splits this bad for a player of this type. Overall, yeah I'm not in love with the worst case scenario (and honestly, I suppose it could be even worse). The better scenarios pump it up to...decent levels. But Amen would really need to be amazing at other aspects of his game to make those worth it. I suppose I could see him being a multi-time all star in those scenarios, if he does put up elite playmaking and defensive numbers (maybe ~10 APG, 2+ SPG, ~1BPG, etc.). I also probably made some miscalculation that made all of this moot, but hey this is a fun thought experiment.
of course, running every play around Thompson is the only way to get him involved in the offense, until you get a Philly/OKC situation where the non shooter, in order to make up for his defencies, is getting more time, shots, and possessions on ball than your actual best player.
It's obviously a gamble, but sometimes it pans out. LeBron was a bad shooter when he first came into the league, and didn't really become league average until like year 6. Giannis still can't shoot and won a title. (And yes, I know Giannis is much taller, but he's definitely a perimeter-oriented player in my book.) Jimmy Butler has never been a great 3P shooter, and a lot of years he's honestly been pretty terrible. And yes, all those guys could/can score in more ways than just driving to the bucket. But I think you can project Amen to at least develop a runner game and/or the ability to hit some midrange shots even if the 3P shooting never does come around. He flashes a good touch around the basket and has shown some promising improvements in his FT shooting. In any case, I will say this: If you're going to run an offense around a non-shooting perimeter player, I'd much rather that guy be 6'7" and a great, versatile defender. I think it's been proven throughout NBA history that the ultra-athletic, good defensive, tall perimeter player is a great archetype to be the best player on your team.
I think when he's off-ball, he *has* to be a cutter (which with Sengun, great!). He will also need to work hard at setting screens, which if guys are sagging deep off of him when he's off-ball...you can guess what happens when he sets a screen for Jabari or JG (or whoever). He has to buy in to these things and actually be good at it, but I think there are some obvious ways to use a player like that where's he's not just tanking your efficiency. Ideally, you probably push the ball with Amen, and he tries to get a paint touch ASAP off of a turnover or defensive rebound. If that doesn't work, you do one of those plays I shared with him as the primary, or you run it through JG/Sengun/etc while having Amen cut/set screens/etc. It could work as long as the other guys are effective at what they do.
Amen shoots a few times a game without forcing it. He's not like Westbrook that'll shoot 5/30 and not like Ben Simmons 0/0. He's very intelligent and will make his improvements in time. He's a pass first pg that pushes the tempo and can get plenty of rebounds. His help side defense reminds me of Tari Eason, no bullshit is getting by.
Pretty good balanced take, and I agree with the conclusion. I don't know if he will ever be a good enough shooter to become a superstar, but as the author suggested, I think he will find a way to stay on the floor given his physical gifts and intangibles, and that's the first step for him to, we would have to hope and pray, eventually maximize his potential.
So, I've come around a bit on Amen. I see the potential of a Thompson/Green backcourt. My biggest concern now is not Amen's fit with Green, but rather his fit with Sengun. Unless Sengun has made radical improvement in his 3 ball, he and Amen together will kill spacing. So, if the pick is Amen, here are some options I've considered. Sign Harden or FVV and let Amen lead a dynamic backup backcourt with KPJ Sign or trade for a stretch-five like Turner or Vucevic Sign or trade for a stretch-four like Porzingis or Grant and let Smith start at center
Yes, I do worry about that some. I think Sengun *has* to become a decent-to-good 3pt shooter if he wants to be a top 30-40 player (or something like that), and if he's not that, we might have to move him (as much as I like him). I'm optimistic about him (more so than Amen), but it is far from a given. I do think Sengun could work *really* well with Amen (and vice versa) if that gets worked out. Like scary well, especially with JG and Jabari also on the court.
Imagining a potential two-man game down the road with Amen & Sengun both able to shoot (far from a given) and pass at elite levels and surrounded by good shooters to space the floor has me salivating. Yeah, the fit next season with both of them as non-shooters is a bit concerning, but imagine if they both end up becoming average three point shooters and you can't sag off of them anymore? Like... holy sh**.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...on-miller-over-scoot-henderson-gains-traction Rival teams believe James Harden's return to the Houston Rockets is certain, and thus doubtful Houston trades up for Scoot Henderson. But if Harden isn't headed to Houston, Henderson would address the team's current roster needs. A source told B/R the Rockets are content with their choices at No. 4, specifically Amen and Ausar Thompson. It's likely that one of the twins will be selected at that spot since Wembanyama, Miller, and Henderson are the presumed top 3 picks. Although we slightly favor Amen over Ausar, teams don't perceive a significant difference between them. Though neither participated in drills or pro days at the combine, new video of Ausar's shooting and tweaked mechanics have made it to scouts, and they sound encouraged by the tape. If the Rockets anticipate signing Harden after the draft, Ausar's shooting would make him a better fit. Amen, on the other hand, is a more natural playmaker but less suited for an off-ball role.
