Alston a starter? Cover story comments

Durvase,

I think it's obvious why his best f/g% was with TMac and with out Yao.

With Yao in the game he simple did not drive to the basket as much. With Yao in the paint the wing players are asked to stay on the perimeter much more and hit the open jumpers when their defensive players are doubling in the post.

With out Yao in the game our guards are expected to take the ball to the basket and carry more of the scoring load in the paint where the higher percentage shots are.

 

Duravasa- Percentages/iles would be slightly misleading- Would you have the number of ( I am talking of the raw numbers)- of such shots taken to make a better call. I trust your logic implicitly- but last season especially the second half, was disappointing in general.

 

So what are you trying to say

Alston = Wayde

Or Alston >>> Mcgrady!

The only thing I pointed out that he misses quite a few- and if he made those his FG% will be higher- and BTW a lot of those he gets Courtesy the 2 Superstars!

 

Maybe he can just pass.

 

I think more than anything what that says is TMac and some of the other elite players in the league will go inside the paint and challange a big shot blocking defender.

Rafer only goes inside when there is no one to challange him so he can hit 55% of his wide open uncontested lay-ups.

 

The double team from Rafer's man on Yao is not the problem. That can be easily remedied by running Yao out top for the pick and roll and having Rafer drive it inside. That's why Rafer's numbers are better when McGrady is on the floor. Because Rafer is essentially a penetrator with very average finishing ability. When McGrady is on the floor, the defense has to account for him. They will shade out to McGrady and leave Rafer one one one to the basket. He doesn't have as much traffic to deal with on his drives as when Yao is in the low post. Now, back to the double teaming with Rafer's man. With Yao and McGrady on the floor this coming season, along with Battier parked at the 3 point line, you've got tremendously more spacing. When Rafer's man doubles off him on Yao first of all, the pick and roll is going to be wide open. Yao meanders out to the top and Rafer goes down. Rafer's percentages are going to go up in that scenario because Juwan's man isn't standing there at the top clogging up the play with Battier in the corner. Now, the second thing is, a smallish point guard doubling down on Yao is a lot easier for Yao to handle now than 2 bigs doubling him. Yao has learned to turn and face quickly when he gets the ball and hold the ball up high. Yao can handle that double team, especially in the low block and get the and 1 out of it now.

And everybody's shooting percentages are going to improve with Yao, McGrady, and now Battier on the floor. Last year, our shooting was artificially low because there were not shot creators on the floor. Everybody was having to take shots that they weren't comfortable with because they had to get a shot up. If you go back and look at the percentage of shots that we shot with the shot clock run down, I think you will find that we had one of the highest percentages if not the very highest percentage of late shot clock shots in the NBA. We DO NOT have that problem when 111 is on the floor. And Battier is going to create a lot more space for penetrator types to work from. That's why personally I believe Rafer, JLIII, and VSpan are going to shine.

The double team from Juwan's man has been what the problem was when Yao was on the floor. Juwan does not have enough range to create the floor spacing that we need for Yao and everybody else to work with. Juwan's man is able to effectively get a hand in Juwan's face and still clog up the paint by dropping down a step or two to double Yao from the front. That's why a player like Battier is going to be so key for us this year. With Battier at the 3, shooting at a 40% clip, if the PF doubles on Yao, he is now leaving a 40% shooter open for 3 points, instead of an eFg 43% shooter open from 2. Huge difference.

If Rafer has been working on his game this summer, and I am confident that he has, I think there is a good chance that he comes back shooting at a much more effective clip. All the elements are there for him to have a great comeback season if the injury bug doesn't bite.

 

Good Post! I agree better spaceing is going to help every one on the floor get better looks.

 

Excellent analysis.

I truly hope you are right. One of the problems Yao (as well as many big men in the league) has had during his career has been bringing the ball down so smaller quicker players could sneak in a poke the ball from him. He does appear to have gotten better at not bringing the ball down. When there is no respect for our point guards ability to score then it certainly makes that scenario a lot more likely to happen.

I like your analysis on using the pick and role with Rafer. The key in that scenario is having Battier at the 4 instead of J-Ho so the defensive can’t park their power forward in the paint or close to it.

 

This just sounds like a case for "small ball" - spread the floor with better shooters. Few PFs in the league have a better range than Jho. For all his shortcoming, he actually has a pretty decent outside shot - not a 3 point shot, but a decent mid jumper and he has decent size too.

In other words, traditionally teams have "made due" with good shooting PFs spacing the floor with strong low post players. It doesn't seem like this would be our problem. How did Thorpe play along side Hakeem? True, Yao isn't Hakeem but I think as far as him being a dominate low post player it's a very apt comparison. Actually I don't remmeber Thorpe having much of a jump shot either....

 

When Hakeem played zone defenses were illegal. One of Rudy T's favorite tactics was to run isolation plays. Basically he would pull 4 players to one side of the floor and let Hakeem go one on one with the oppossing center. The oppossing team could not double Hakeem until he had the ball. This gave Dream a huge advantage that Yao does not enjoy.

Now, Yao can leagally be double teamed with out the ball. In Dreams day that would have been called an illegal defense and he would have shot a techinal free throw.

So long distance shooting power forwards are much more important for Yao than they were for Dream. Respect for the 3pt shot is the only thing that will keep oppossing players from playing the passing lanes or doubling Yao before he recieves the ball. However if someone like Battier can make teams pay for doubling Yao in the paint by hitting his treys then those teams will be forced to play him 20 feet from the basket giving Yao much more room to opperate down low.

 

Dude, they weren't playing against the zone and all these monkey defensive schemes either. Spreading the floor is high priority in light of the rules changes. You gotta have good 3 point shooting and space for your perimeter guys to move around along with space to force defenses to really have to commit to a double team. It's not the same game as when Hakeem was playing, not with the rule changes.

That's why a player like Raef, if he were injury free and his salary were lower, would be such a tremendous fit with Yao. A PF that can defend, block shots, board a little bit, and hit the 3 ball like it is going out of style. That's why Battier is going to such a tremendous upgrade over Juwan. He is quicker and has much more range. No, he isn't a great shot blocker, but Howard isn't either. That's why we don't lose anything. In Battier, we get a better shooter than Howard with more range and better speed and quickness on defense.

 

I loved the trade for Rafer last season and I still stand by my opinion of it and Rafer's ability.

I think people get caught up a little too much on 3pt. percentage with him. If he man leaves him to double and the ball rotates to him, he has all the ability in the world to take the opening and drive it in the lane creating a layup for himself, a dunk for one of the bigs or a open 3 for a guy like Battier or Snyder. It's not all about the 3.

I still think he is more than capable of being at least a decent enough outside shooter to make the defense pause a tad thinking about leaving him. But, his drive and play-making ability is what is his strongest asset.

You can't all have great shooters on the floor at the same. It just never works that way. So inevitably, the defense is going work their defense to make that guy beat them. But in Rafer's case, he still brings enough things to the table that will hurt the defense even if it's not hitting from behind the arch.

I think Rafer is good enough to be the starting PG on a championship team.

 

I definitely think Alston is good enough, this debate is a little overboard. He's good enough to be the starting PG on a championship team IMO and people saying otherwise sound like haters.

Alston and Juwan certainly have weaknesses but it seems lately people have gone way overboard in dissing them.

 

I think the Rafer debate is legitimate. The attacks on Howard are a little much in my opinion. With Howard, you know what you have. For all of his shortcomings he is consistent and ready to play every night.

Rafer is yet to prove he is more than 28 minutes a game.

I also agree that Mike James would not have played the two the majority of the time (although against certain teams this certainly would have been a possibility). I don't agree that Mike James would have positively been a starter. I'll have to see more proof that he is able to get along well with others on the court. I want as many touches for Yao as humanly possible and when it's not humanly possible I want the ball in T-mac's hands. That and consistent outside shooting is the simple key to this team's success offensively.

regardless, Rafer is still a question mark with an asterisk pointing to potential and is fair game for debate.

 

I see your points in the Mike James comparison but I believe if the management was thinking to replace Rafer Alston by Mike James as the PG, they were getting into an endless loop yet another wrong decision even if they did acquire Mike James this summer successfully.

In the 04-05 season, lesson learned was we need a Pass 1st PG, I believe part of the reasons they traded James for Alston was because they thought we have enough long range shooters in our line up but sadly it didn't turn out that way. Sura was out for the whole season, Jon out, David Wesley lost his shots (IMHO, I believe Wesley wouldn't look that terrible if he wasn't asked to play that many minutes per game, he could still be a servicable backup guard.)

So after this season, we need a genuine 3rd scoring option. We also need someone who can make long range shots. Does that mean replacing Alston? I really doubt. If that's the case, where's our pass 1st PG then? I still think the best value Mike James could brought to this team is to play as the 6th man. He may be started over Alston in some games but I guess JVG would like James to close the games more.

 

I think had Sura been healthy last season then there was no way that they would have traded for Alston. I think the James for Alston trade was just a knee jerk reaction by management because of the Sura injury.

 

Those who dismiss Alston's ineptitude because "it doesn't matter much over the course of 82 games" or "that's not what JVG wants" are missing the point.

The question isn't whether his scoring woes can be overcome. It's not whether he can play on a winning team.

It's whether Alston is a relative strength or liability considering the fact that at elite levels, all differentials are marginal.

Someone averaged Alston's 3 point woes to be about a point per game, then dismissed that as insiginificant. Are you freaking joking? Improving point differential by a single point is huge. There just isn't that big of a difference between a poor team and an average one - and an average team and a good one.

 

We thought Alston would be a better passer and EQUAL 3 point shooter to Mike James. Their stats before the trade more or less said this was likely. But Alston shot terribly overall last year and was marginally adequate from the 3 line, while James was phenomenal on both for a PG in his situation, had James signed here is was his PG job to lose, no question.

If Alston can't hit over 35% from the 3 line he is just too big of liability. If he was a Tony Parker or Andre Miller or Chris Paul in terms of penetration and finishing it would be acceptable to have subpar range or consistency in his jump shot, but he doesn't make you pay in the lane like those guys either.

He must shoot a good degree better than last year or his days of starting for the Rockets are numbered.

 

He did play on a winning team: he played significant minutes on the 03/04 MIA Heat playoff squad with Wade and Odom. Looks like he made his teammates better, too.

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