The eye-ball test shows Sengun is a wreck on defense. Eyeball test says the same about Reed except that having Adams or Capela behind him generally allowed the defense to function better as a whole than when Sengun was in the game. Having a bad defensive center just hurts more even though Reed getting picked on looks worse to a lot of people. Offensively, Sengun takes a lot more shots and makes a lot more risky passes (more assists, but more turnovers). Eyeball wise, Sengun generally played with better offensive players than Reed while Reed played with better defensive players than Sengun. Stats suggest the Rockets offense was slightly better with Sengun than with Reed, but that the Rockets just struggle on defense with Sengun on the court. Reed, for the most part, Udoka kept him sheltered by playing him alongside defensive players until later in the season when he tried unsuccessfully to play Reed and Sengun together. Reed creates a ton more spacing for teammates than Sengun. Also, eyeballs should be able to see Reed typically has the best perimeter defender on him provided Durant is not in the game. Eyeball test showed Sengun can't shoot. He still attracted more attention than most centers, but not being able to shoot allows defenders to sag (i.e. personal scoring stats can be fine, but this hurts the team a lot). I don't consider VORP, win shares, BPM advanced stats. Actual EPM has Sengun at 0.7 and Reed at 0.5, though that is a season number (I think Sengun was around 4 in mid-November). Projected EPM still has Sengun way ahead because of his contribution early in the season and in past seasons. Counting stats and usage-based stats favor Sengun. I'd assume a lot of the advanced stats would favor Sengun, but those stats typically regress to the mean (Sengun has been a much better player in the past). With Reed and scrubs off the court, the Rockets were +6.8 with Sengun. With Sengun and scrubs off the court, the Rockets were +13.9 with Reed. Some of that is Sengun played against better opponents, but for the most part, the Rockets just really struggled on defense with Sengun playing center. The Rockets simply played better with Reed on the court than Sengun despite Sengun playing more often with better players.
Toughness is difficult to articulate and can mean different things to different people. But, I'm not sure that's the main reason some people would want him traded. Sengun's key skills are: his post moves/positioning and his passing. He has an excellent ability to get where he wants on the court. The problem is that he doesn't have great touch so he needs to be near the rim to consistently score. This season teams started to guard him more like a traditional center and avoid a lot of his fakes from further out. In the last 2 playoff games he's been really aggressive in backing down his man deep into the paint and it's been really effective. He just doesn't regularly play this way and for him to do this for a full season he would have to pack on considerable muscle because you're essentially asking him to become a 90s style center. I like the fight but I don't expect Sengun to utilize this play style in future seasons. On defense, we had decent schemes to keep Sengun out of the PnR last year but those just don't work anymore. Often Sengun could float out on the worst forward and Jabari or Brooks could take the big in the PnR. They were both big enough to hold their own against most modern bigs and move their feet well enough to switch if necessary. Now, that worst forward is being guarded by KD or Reed. Sengun's just bad at every PnR coverage so it's not about choosing a good coverage. He just has poor instincts on that end, always out of position, it's not even about athleticism, he just has poor defensive IQ. So, to have a consistently great defense you have to hide him and that limits who else you can hide. However, when he plays hard he can stay in plays and be disruptive even if he's caught out of position. So, the reason to move him would be because you believe the team won't be able to build around his shortcomings enough to be a true contender and the way he plays doesn't leave the possibility of fitting in as a role player.
sadly his thoughness does not translate well to defensive intensity, something requiered out of your center. And he does not shoot the 3 well enough to play as a 4
We saw this dude hoop like crazy when he was on the turkey national team. Sengun gets here and Ime is posting him at the 3 point line. im truly hoping the rockets don't trade another 20 year old for another 40 year old that is never going to get you anywhere. you cant teach heart. Sengun wants to platy and win. you see that dude dying on the court in winning time. he wants the last shot. he's not scared of the moment.
I think there's more evidence that Alpi can both shoot at a decent level (Eurobasket) and defend at a decent level (last season we were a top defense) than either Amen shooting well (never happened in all of history) or Reed playing good defense (same.) I do agree though I think Amen's always going to be a solid defender and decent if limited producer on offense because he's mostly used in a 90's bigman shot profile regardless and has decent efficiency doing it. Reed on defense (as much as I hate it because I do love his offensive potential a lot) I just don't know if he can overcome those limitations. I think if you tell me to pick 2 right now I'm keeping Sengun and Amen. I don't remotely believe Amen's going to be the "elite 2 way player" people keep hyping him as, but I do genuinely think he'll be an elite defender who's more than competent as a 3rd option. Reed needs to basically produce at his absolute peak offensive level and actually shooting towards the very top of the league to make up for his defense, I don't think he ever becomes that solid a defender, it seems much harder to overcome.
He desperately needs a consistent outside shot in order to get to the next level. It doesn't have to be a 3 pointer, but at least a mid range jumper so he's able to face the basket and score. It takes him from a 20-22 ppg scorer to 24-25ppg scorer which makes him elite and multi-dimensional.
Is this really a discussion? Why is there a debate over who is better between Sengun and RS. The fact is, the rockets don’t have the necessary parts to make a run this year. KD sitting on the bench nursing a sore ankle doesn’t help. Not having a PG really hurt hurts since there’s no one to distribute the ball to Sengun. All this talk about trading A 22 year-old borderline All-Star is ridiculous. trading for KD was probably a mistake considering he’s 37-years-old and injury prone. how many times have we seen the rocket sign in aging veteran only to see him get injured during the playoffs when we need them the most? While I wasn’t the biggest fan of Jalen Green, I think the Rockets should’ve gone after another wing or PG that could shoot the rock. I’m sure there were teams looking to shed salary or wanted to unload guys that were entering free agency that wouldn’t improved the team. Also, keeping guys like Tate, Eason, Finney-Smith, Jeff Green, Aaron Holiday, and Capela instead of trading for a solid PG was a mistake. That’s on Stone.
I think this is kind of a fake stat, if I'm reading it correctly. It's defining "contested" as "defender within 4 feet" which is not exactly how post play works. I think we have a very memorable and demonstrative example that we should all know: Is this a contested shot? His defender is surely within 4 feet of him. But he also juked him out of his shoes and this is an open layup. But I think for the purpose of the graph this would count. I think "defender within 4 feet" is a decent way to measure jump shots but a bogus way to measure post play. Post players try to get an uncontested shot at the rim through footwork and ball fakes, even if you succeed at this your defender is still within 4 feet.
You guys act like there is something criminal about Sengun initiating from up high in the middle of the court - that's similar to where Jokic, Sabonis, and Draymond all initiative offense from because it allows good passes to read doubles and hit their men immediately rather than relying on a connective passer to work the ball around the floor until it finds the open man. Passing out of a double to capture opposing teams in rotation is valuable but finding the exact man the defense is trying to hide is the most valuable pass - Alpi's position at top is directly related to that. The problem is that he isn't much of a threat to shoot the ball from that position so teams aren't going to double him until he tries to make a move going to the basket and I think most of us would agree he works HARD trying to get into a scoring position from there....and that is the fundamental problem with Sengun's skill sets right now. ZThe place where he can be most effective as a passer also happens to be the place he is least effective as a scorer and vice versa. Jokic extended his range, Sabonis eventually extended his range, Draymond didn't but he is also an all defense guy and GS just augmented to have players cut around him. At some point Alpi is going to HAVE to do what everyone has been begging him to do - either be a significantly better defender or have some more offensive shooting range or ideally some combination of both to justify putting the ball in his hands more....and that includes FTs as well because if you are giving a guy high usage, they also need to be able to draw fouls and convert those fouls into points. Sengun is both a bad FT shooter and doesn't generate fouls on volume like most high usage guys. It's not picking on Sengun - it's just you have a certain bar you need to be effective as a higher usage player in the NBA and Sengun doesn't really meet those even if he is our best player not named KD.
That stat seems a little misleading to me. First of all, everyone on the list with the exception of Jokić is a guard taking jump shots. They only center on the list, Jokić, is a more of a shooter than an interior player. Sengun takes the vast majority of his shots on the interior low post where defenders converge. Not suggesting he doesn’t take contested shots, he does. I’m just saying the stats are a little misleading. It also doesn’t help his stats when no one else can facilitate the offense. This is what happens when you don’t have a PG. Every other player on that list has a PG that can distribute the ball to get easier looks at the basketball.
we simply have an issue regarding the fit of our best prospects. as you said: 1- alpi + amen do not fit offensively unless one of them develops a shot (which i think is very unlikely) 2- alpi + reed don't fit defensively at all 3- amen + reed IMO don't provide sufficient offensive star power the way the roster is constructed right now, alpi and amen have lower efficiency because of the crowded paint. both of them would play much much better with 4 shooters on the floor, that's why ime took clint and tate from the rotation (obviously too late for that but that's what we get with ime as a head coach). he staggered their minutes a little bit, and we saw a lot of amen + 4 shooters if you include DFS (as bad as he's been no team would just leave him open). by the way, i think detroit is having similar issues in the playoffs as defenders play harder and coaches gameplan much more for your weaknesses. you can play 2 non shooters with no major repercussions during the regular season, but the playoffs are just a totally different beast. there aren't any clear paths to a solid roster construction unless you're thinking of a full rebuild. my current opinion is that we should run it back with a better coach, the return of FVV and the signing of good shooters. there's always going to be a fit issue between alpi and amen, but a good coach may be able to mitigate that. reed will be on the bench, deservedly so, and the new coach should try to play him mostly when alpi sits. if, in a year from now, things are still as bad as they are right now, we will only have 2 options: trading one of alpi or amen or a full rebuild with the tanking route. this is such a tough spot that you may see me having a different opinion tomorrow, i already changed my mind about this subject about a 1000 times this year.
This is kind of where I'm at in terms of the young guys. I don't see any urgency in breaking up those three, or Jabari for that matter. (Tari can go or stay on a cheap contract, I don't really care as long as he comes off the bench if he stays.) What I would add though is that I don't see much point in running this roster back with KD and all the other veterans. I don't see FVV coming back as the """key to the championship formula""". Especially if things are as bad in the locker room with KD as I think they are--we need to see what we can get for the veterans and try to get younger and improve the pace and chemistry. Both for my sanity (I don't know if I can take another full season of old man ball) and because I think it's the right way to go for a chance at longer term success.
1000% this. The willingness to blow up and trade young assets, who are far from finished products, is bewildering to me. At least Durant was actually on the bench last night and not spending those specific 2.5 hours “training” in the NASA neutral buoyancy laboratory.
I think Alpi, Amen and Reed can coexist if we fix the coaching. Jabari is actually a great fit, if we can unleash some more of his rim protection skills. Adding a true shooting guard that can also play defense and handle the ball a little will give us a solid 5. The bench is another issue, because I'd like to see Sengun play PF a little more with a Capela or Adams locking down the middle of the defense. Yes, Alpi needs to work on his jumper, as does Amen, but they're both making some progress.
Whatever. Keep him or trade him - I don’t care in the short term as long as they get value if they move him. He is never going to be a good fit with Amen or Sheppard…. But Amen and Sheppard can play well together… so it’s a matter of time before there is a trade. Sengun is never going to be a good defender. His ceiling relies entirely on his ability to shoot from 3. If he can become a 38-40% shooter from 3, he could be an offensive motor. Problem is I am really doubting if the shot comes around.
