Alpi, Amen, and Green are the core of the core of the core

So you are one of those subscribers to infinite energy?

 

We already talked about this, and as I said, I'll acknowledge that it's possible his increased defensive intensity is masking some offensive improvement. It's a fair point and it might well be true.

 

Core
Reed Sheppard, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun

Long Term is hard to know
Jabari Smith Left Hand Injury, Tari Eason Leg Surgery, Cam Whitmore Leg Surgery in High School

 

LOL are you just a Jalen hater? Why is shooting 33.7% when the league average is 35 equivalent to scoring 71 when his peers got 80s and 90s? 33.7% statistically would still fall under or be right under "average" as a range given how close it is to the average.

You are acting like Jalen is Giannis out there on the perimeter, you are starting to sound just as bad as Corey Brewer Bobby.

Nobody has any evidence of anything that hasn't happened yet? What are you, minority report? What I do know is over the last 10 games he has been shooting 38% from 3 and historically Jalen gets better as the season ends.

 

It's totally unreasonable to call a quarter of a season a "hot streak", sorry. Can't entertain that. It's not even that hot a "streak" to call it hot, it's heavily weighted on defense. He played very well for a quarter of a season and because he played worse in the previous quarter good average is still similar to previous seasons. But he played well for a quarter of a season flat out. He's never done it. People have flat out told me last season he needs to do this in the first half for them to be happy. This is his best first half, if paired with any of his projected second halves will be his best offensive season. So we sit at an optimistic point. Now they nitpick. I don't care about this new arbitrary requirement that: if he has his best first half but that first half is not more efficient than his overall last season then nothing different has happened. It's ridiculous.

Also, no not "basically everyone" is giving him credit for his defense but at least you're an optimist. Everyone who comes at me at least dismisses it as irrelevant or inconsequential. A swing from 500th ranked defender to 250 within 1.25 years is - on the mirroring offensive side - the equivalent of an MLE-level scorer becoming a max-level scorer. You're moving up half the table in 50% of the game. Mathematically. And that's probably a big reason why our defense-obsessed coach continues to start him and even keep him in defensive lineups at the end of games. He's about 100 ranking spots away from being a legitimate two-way player. I'm sure Ime believes that's realistic now that he's seen the kid is swallowing up all the defensive coaching.

I think we've heard this a lot dude, that it's not so negative on Green. I considered it. But this is not the normal basketball board trash talk on a player, this is obvious to me there are 5+ people in this thread who - if this "hot streak" continues for 5 years even - will be like "Jalen's been playing well but my gut tells me we can't trust him." LoL oh that's your gut huh? Maybe you're just constipated.

I've seen how it works now once their excuses dry up, I know that that person's brain as we've been saying can't appreciate things. It's not personal to Jalen. They're just obsessively cynical people who don't see that the way they feel is regardless of what's happening in the world. That's the dozen people I'm talking about at least.

I think you're a reasonable poster and you're projecting that reasonable trait on people. It's a nice thing to do in this case but they don't deserve it. Take that monkey ATW - do you know for like 5 years that I've put him on ignore he has liked - without fail - any post that insults or challenges me regardless of whether he agrees with the poster? Does that strike you as a healthy dude? That his opinion on Green will be objective? That's the kind of person I'm talking about.

 

I don't want to dwell too much on the "quarter of a season" thing, but I do want to say that it truly is about 11 games ago, so about an 8th of the season, that he really started to show dramatic improvement on his scoring efficiency. That's the main reason why I'm still really uncertain. If it were 22 games instead I might be starting to believe a little bit more. The defensive improvements have been all season long for the most part.

But I do agree with you that some posters (I'm not going to name names) are too entrenched in their positions and inflexible. This is the case for all of our starters to some degree. I've blocked people on this forum before for just never letting it go. I'm just not convinced that there are all that many true "Jaters"--maybe a few who are dealing with some latent misplaced homophobia against a dude who clearly likes women (not that it should matter).

The main thing for me is just to remain flexible and open to the evidence we're seeing. And that's what I kinda want to say to the handful of "player only fans" and "player only haters". Require real, strong evidence--which means a sufficient sample size--but when you get it, be willing to change your views. That's all there is to it, really. It's not that hard. Just set aside your ego for a moment.

 

I'm sorry, we can't really avoid dwelling on that. It's the core premise you happened to reply to.

I'm not talking about his 7-game hot streak or whatever. I'm talking about the 21-game averages I posted. A quarter of a season is 20.5 games. I don't care about the highs and lows there everyone has highs and lows in a quarter of a season. There's no such thing as a quarter of a season without highs and lows except for All NBA calibre players. That's not a reasonable standard here.

I'm not here for the strawman argument (I know that's not your intention) about his hot 6 games. There's no winning that. Green can demolish records and it will be brushed under the rug.

We all wanted longer more consistent play even if it meant more selective shots. I posted his stats for quarter of a season. If you agree that's a good quarter and he has delivered the best first half of his career we're not disagreeing and I'm not trying to say anything bigger than that.

Just want to be clear also bro I'm not lumping you in with the negative nancies. I think you just misunderstood what I was discussing (the short streak vs the long stretch).

 

His parents and most of his classmates may just be dumbasses, 70 on a test of 71 is 99%

 

He had a good stretch of 10 games. Statistically, I don't see evidence that it is different from last year though. I plotted 10-game 3pt shooting averages for Green. Blue is last year, orange is this year. You can draw your own conclusions but as I said unless he keeps it up, which i do hope so, it is pretty much similar to last year.

 

So 50% of the data is missing in your chart first of all. We're talking about Green the overall player, defense and offense. Net. You've cherry picked scoring and only 10 games here. You know what's not cherry picking? A quarter of a season. The number we're telling you and you're ignoring.

Secondly, why are you taking 10 games when you know full well there's no 10-game stretch of scoring would convince you of anything? In an 11-game stretch, he won every game and led the league in scoring against equivalent teams to his. He has the scoring certificate for that. Done. If you need to be convinced still, there's no convincing you. Only guys like Nikola Jokic have 11 straight good games against elite teams. We're not purporting he's in that tier now. In fact Green is just a 21ppg scorer in this quarter of a season.

He has played 20.5 good games compared to what 20.5 good games means in the NBA today. So the third and final flaw in your comparison here is: you're assuming it's true he didn't have a good 20.5 game stretch last season but you're taking that assumption from a bunch of cynical anecdotes. I don't know if it's true, I'm arguing that even if it were true, now he has a good stretch. So even if you DID find a good 20.5 game stretch last season, it won't mean this season's 20.5 games is not good. It would just mean someone made something up last season and we believed it. What you should be doing here is defining what constitutes a good but not great 2-way player in the NBA and seeing if Green is doing that for a quarter of a season.

Fact of the matter is: this is a good stretch of a play much longer than a streak and happening in the first half, as you all requested. If we're taking his past second halves for granted, let's keep that energy about how easy it's going to be. Also, keep note of the current strength of schedule as he explodes since that was so important to everyone as well.

EDIT: can I also cc @OremLK for a good example of what I mean when I say Green's defense or defensive improvement is treated as irrelevant or inconsequential to his value?

 

Chart works half the time

 

But half the time does it work... EVERY time?

 

"It's made with bits of real panther, that's how you know it's good"

 

Defense becomes more important the higher up on the positional spectrum you go. Nobody would say that alex caruso is just as valuable as steph curry.

 

Apart from Ant, who has done more in the league at Jalens age ?

 

You are really losing your mind here and no wonder think most posts are jalen hating. You can talk about defense and offense and green's overall value with others but we were not. I like green's defense and very impressed of it. But it was a discussion about scoring. So I don't need to add a disclaimer or do an overall evaluation just because you'll read everything from the perspective of 'oh he must be hating green because he didn't mention his defense'.

I answered to a post that suggested the last 10 games is an indicator of an upward trend and the discussion was on scoring. That's why I looked at 10 games and that's why I look at all 10 games stretches rather than the last one stretch of 10 games, and compare it with last year. Just trying to do some analysis. I didn't cherry picked 10 games but even if you did other numbers, the rolling 3pt shooting percentages will exhibit similar behavior. The reason I look at all 10 game stretches and compare it to last year is to show that he had such upward trends before and this one is not something we have not seen before. Hopefully he'll keep it up and go into the something new territory.

I don't even know what you mean by half of the data is missing. I can't plot the data that hasn't happened yet.

@OremLK a good example why mathloom thinks everyone hates green and how it is very far fetched

 

How old are.cade and mobley

 

Mobley the oldest.....but those are mostly 8 months.....and Cade is from Arlington, Texas, nearby Dallas.

Ant and Cade are about the same, only 1-2 months apart. Ant was from a different Draft Class though.

 

This is good data and rolling 10-game averages is absolutely the right way to smooth out lumpy data.

It makes the point very clear - last year he really struggled in games 40-60. If he can maintain where he is now during that stretch, his season totals will far exceed last year and all of the “but the whole year shows no improvement” stuff will go away.