I have re-read your post like 3 times and...I think you're agreeing with me? But it's hard to tell. Anyway, I think he is that elite as a passer and a playmaker. But I don't think he's that elite as a scorer. I really do agree with this last bit you posted though, his ability to playmake should help him create advantages for his scoring - not the other way around. It should help him get easy buckets, because his defenders are overplaying passing lanes and aren't ready for his quick baseline spin, or his numerous other post moves. I think that's a key component of what I initially described.
Injuries aside, if he is physically able to play basketball, there is NO chance he will be a major disappointment. He's already a 20pts/12reb DPOY candidate as a 20yr old. Even if he doesn't improve one bit from here forward he is already a top 5 guy just in being useful offensively and dominant defensively. All the things that may happen if he becomes a better shooter is just icing on the cake for San Antonio.
20/12 DPOY candidate is not a top 5 guy. Especially given he hasn’t been very efficient — .52 TS%, .22 from 3.
Wemby’s advanced stats are actually pretty awful this season thus far. .53 TS%, 0.0 Vorp, -1.7 BPM, terrible on/off stats. The Spurs are doing him a massive disservice by letting him roam the perimeter and jack ridiculous 3s.
It's pretty clear that the offense to this point has been Sengun being able to draw the double team via his post scoring to open up perimeter shots. This is a fine offensive concept but we do not have the personnell to maximize it. Instead, we have a roster full of athletic cutters that are relegated to shooting jumpers. It's offensive that this is our offense.
I agree partially with you - I think your right about his value as a playmaker and I think we need a better offensive system to suit his skills(and generally the skills we have available on this roster). I just don't necessarily think he is at the "hub" of it necessarily. I've said it before but I think the prolonged Harden era following the Tmac/Yao era, following the Hakeem era has maybe blinded us to a version of a "team" that is competitive more so than a franchise player we build a team around that is competitive. The only way to win titles isn't through franchise players. Big picture, we didn't have the opportunity to draft a surefire franchise player - so why do we continue to try to elevate the guys we did draft into that "franchise" role? The reality might be that Jalen, Alpi, Amen, Jabari, Cam, Tari, and Reed may never be THAT dude...but maybe those guys could be a REALLY good team if we sought to utilize the gifts each of those players bring to build something bigger than each individually? The Pistons won titles with two different teams that had good players but never had a "top 5" guy. You could argue that Klay, Draymond, and Steph started their dynasty as just good complementary players who were successful playing team ball and it was only later that Steph matured into the best shooter of all time status and a surefire top 5 guy. I mean accolades follow wins(or titles) - but no one ever said "Golden State just drafted a franchise player" then they first drafted Steph - and certainly not when they drafted Klay or Draymond. You could argue that while Boston has been dominant the last few years - guys like Tatum and Brown aren't considered top 5 guys to other players with less Finals appearances. The point is, if we are serious about bringing titles back to Houston, we gotta be willing to play like a team and stop thinking in terms of franchise talents and start thinking in terms of how this team can be the best version of itself - no exceptions, no "numeros".
Whilst I did chuckle, we definitely need Alpi to start finding a way to score again. He needs to be a 20 and 10 guy or at least flirting with the 20 most nights. Thankfully outside of the first Spurs game he's still contributing everywhere else when he's not scoring but we need him to be like year 3 Alpi, not year 1 and 2 Alpi as a scorer. If that falls into place and Jalen continues to be the alpha scorer he was born to be then we don't need to rely on players like FVV or Brooks scoring as much, which is going to make us a lot more resilient as a team and open up more minutes for some of our other young guys to start to actually find a place. Obviously, regardless we're swimming against the tide with Ime's lack of offensive prowess, but you have to work with what you have I guess.
What's interesting is how much better Sengun is doing with boards. Despite playing 4 minutes fewer on average than last season, Sengun is averaging over 3 more boards per game.
Anecdotally he is forcing a lot of shots in a crowded paint and then getting "rebounds" by tipping it back up on the board several times. The rebound counting stats may look great, but he doesn't actually secure a lot of the rebounds that show up on his stat line. If anyone knows where this stat is tracked I would love to see what the metrics say but for now I'm thinking the increase is directly proportional to shots he is missing in the paint as his offensive efficiency has declined so far this season. ...and worth noting this is probably really skewed at the moment from small sample sizes. There aren't really 'trends' to see yet in data after only 4 games.
I think he looks better on rebounds. Stronger and occupies more space. His defensive rebounds per 36 is up to 10.4 from 7.1. That’s a massive increase, the gap will probably be less as the sample size grows, still he looks improved at this end.
They're tanking this season, this is probably the last chance barring injury that they will for sure have a shot at a high lottery pick, and it's a good draft. What they're doing is smart, it's much better for them to win 25 games than 35 games. All of the 3s and stuff is also saving his body from unnecessary hits for a team that's trying to tank. Once they get a real coach his play style will be different, right now he's just trying to develop the perimeter stuff, which is smart.
And I keep saying, he is not bad, it's just that his shortcomings are glaring. He has problems against length and he does not offer any rim protection. That's HUGE if the Rockets make the playoffs. Every playoff team has length; OKC, Dallas, Denver, Minn, Lakers, Clippers, etc. There is a distinct difference when Sengun is in the game vs when Adams is in the game. Adams brings a Paint Presence. The opposition doesn't drive as much. I prefer it to be the other way around. The opposition fear your starter, not your backup.
Sengun’s biggest problem so far this season is his shot just hasn’t gone in. If he were shooting closer to last year’s percentage from the field, his ppg would be around 20 rather than 14.7. also, why can’t he be consistent from the charity stripe? He was shooting so much better from the line in preseason.
Outside of Adams, Sengun has had the longest gap between playing actual games at the start of this season. So he's getting his legs underneath him back. I could tell he's been a bit more off balance with his attempts at the rim and I'm pretty sure that's just a product of him recovering back his core strength after missing a lot of games. Ramping up to play high level starter minutes under the expectations that Ime has for his players on defense means it is going to take a bit to get those legs back.
I don't want to blow your mind or anything but generally 20yr olds improve in their efficiency as they gain experience - it does happen from time to time. Just something to consider before dismissing a 20/12 DPOY of the year candidate as "not a top 5 guy" when that player is already elite defensively at 20 and shows promise as a 7'4" player with ball handling and passing skills who can hit logo 3s.
