If he extends before the season: Zero chance it is the 25% max. If the team had interest in that it would have been done in July. Doesn’t happen in October. Very very little chance it is just a minor discount. Those extensions (23-24% of the cap) just don’t really happen. It takes organizational will and calculated risk-taking to firmly negotiate the rookie extension with a good young player like Sengun - you don’t take that risk for no significant benefit. $2m/yr isn’t it. If the team were going to give him a ~$210M contract, they might as well just give him the $224M for the goodwill. My prediction: Either no deal, or something like $185M/5, with $15M of that in reachable incentives. Flat or frontloaded.
How a team treats players affects how players treat a team. I think operating over the cap is likely a better path than operating like the Rockets will be an under the cap next offseason. The major risk with re-signing Sengun a year early is injury risk in my opinion. It shouldn't take much in terms of salary to mitigate the injury risk.
There’s also the chance he regresses or stays the same. I think it’s basically impossible but it does happen, and obviously current sengun on a max is an albatross. If there was ANY benefit to signing him now, or if he had a huge cap hold I could understand it, but with the current cba it’s just shooting yourself in the foot for no reason. The worst situation ever for an RFA was utah with hayward, having him for only 3 years instead of 4-5, and considering what happened to him utah dodged a massive bullet
Yeah, it's not just about cap space. You don't want to overpay a player to the point that it becomes a deadweight negative asset. Sengun is a max player. Jalen has some proving to do, but I have hope that he can turn into a max player too. Time is tight though We'll see.
Staying the same would be fine. Having a huge cap hold only matters if getting cap space had an advantage over operating over the cap. I think not having to cut players and using exceptions likely outweights the small chance that having cap space can improve the team. To me, it is injury risk (which it would likely need to be very bad) that is the major downside to extending him now. I think attracting players to your team is not nothing. Maybe I'm wrong and the injury risk is too much, but acting like how players perceive a team means nothing is ludicrous to me. Short term, waiting a year won't change whether Sengun is a Rocket or not.
I agree, it’s either less than max dollars, or less than max years. (The latter can get him to 30% max tenure sooner.) But one other minor possibility is a max extension doesn’t have to include potential for Supermax, should he make All-NBA. Further, teams can do a range between 25 and 30% based on various levels of All-NBA awards. Ie, like with Mobley and Franz, they can get 30% max only if they make 1st Team this year, but only 27.5% 2nd/3rd Team.
This will be interesting to track over the year. If we have the deep, balanced, unselfish team we think (hope) we have, I could see him not quite meeting the PPG and RBG projections but exceeding APG. SPG seems about right, BPG seems slightly low as he'll have more freedom to challenge with two quality centers behind him. Depends on minutes, obviously. Ideally, the depth gives Ime the ability to keep minutes down and keep players fresh throughout the year so they have an advantage in the postseason. If so, that means there has to be a financial plan that must be communicated to the team (or at least certain members) to assure them team accomplishments will be valued over individual accomplishments.
100% this. In addition to all the cap hold discussions that make Sengun's extension unlikely until next offseason (Myles Turner would be a nice FA to pair with Sengun), and the fact that we are still trying to understand whether Amen and Reed may one day be max players, people seem to be forgetting the last time we saw Sengun in a Rockets jersey was when he was being helped off the court in a wheelchair with a lower extremity injury. There are far too many real reasons why it's not in the team's best interest to sign him now so any extension talk today would only been in terms of a very team friendly, incentive heavy deal, that can be traded somewhat easily if need be - not just a minor deal. I think the Rockets are aware of the big picture here and aren't going to be hyper focused on just Sengun's deal knowing that there are a lot of players on this roster who have promise and we have to make sure we don't paint ourselves into a corner with unmovable contracts given all the talent we have collected over the last 4 years. The worst thing would be to draft the right guy but not be able to surround them with the right talent or worse yet not be able to retain them because we overpaid on an earlier deal. Sengun is a great player but if Cam, Amen, or Reed turn out to be real dudes - you don't want to create problems around retaining them - yet another reason why waiting to sign Sengun until next offseason is more advantageous to the team because you have more time to evaluate those guys.
The biggest reason to lock him up is If they think he is going to be a dominant force in the NBA. Hard for some of you to reconcile that possibility, I know.
@AroundTheWorld ♫ ..Here's the story.... of a handsome Man Who was bringing up six very handsome dudes All of them... had handsome features like the Man Second youngest one in curls....♫ Lol... They all look high except for Amen... Go Rockets!!! ....... ....... .......
Everyone but Bari and Tari are potential superstars. Stone has really knocked it out of the park with his drafting.
200m or 220m .... what's the real difference, they are both over 3125 times (3,437) the average yearly salary in the US. It takes the average wage 15.625 years just to earn $1m ..... Thats insane.
Personally, I think Sengun will make a leap this year and make the all-star team. For Green, it'll take a miracle to play consistently all season so I'm not expecting much from him.
