That is useful, but I think being even a league average 3 level scorer(able to hit shots in the post, mid range, and 3pt line competently) is far more valuable to the team than being a really good post player. The reality is - unless you have Giannis type efficiency in the paint, an average 3pt shooter is going to be more valuable than an above average paint player so Sengun would have to be close to all time to be able to be a post maestro without being a 3 level scorer -THAT is the skill he has to work on…for our sake, I hope he comes into next year with some improvements in those areas.
i'm just talking about peak, generally 3 year apex for a player. Kareem i'm pretty sure peaked before the modern era so he wouldn't count, but Jokic is for sure top 5 peak, probably higher. I know it's not cool to say that (especially on this forum) but it is what it is. Career wise he has a long way to go to get the garnett duncan hakeem level but peak wise he's there
i'm just talking about peak, generally 3 year apex for a player. Kareem i'm pretty sure peaked before the modern era so he wouldn't count, but Jokic is for sure top 5 peak, probably higher. I know it's not cool to say that (especially on this forum) but it is what it is. Career wise he has a long way to go to get the garnett duncan hakeem level but peak wise he's there But again, you're talking about parts of Jokic's game where he is BY FAR the best in the league at. If you look at a young center, it's very unlikely they'll be a better shot blocker then dream. When you look at a young guard, it's very unlikely they'll be a better shooter then curry, or better passer then Magic. That's what you're saying when you say he'll be a better post up player then Jokic
It is unlikely but for most centers it is literally impossible, for Sengun there is a chance that he might be the better post-up player eventually. If you are not interested in that small chance, then the whole talk is pointless because even if a clone of young jokic came into the league today, you would argue that he can never develop into the jokic that we know, because his numbers would be similar to sengun. And this is not an imaginary scenario, young jokic had similar numbers with sengun at the post, had worse foot work but was taller. I am not really interested in whether his post game will pass Jokic or not. I just enjoy the development and see where he ends up. Just answered your question because you asked what parts of sengun's game has a chance to be better than jokic. For example, with passing and midrange shooting I see no chance at all. With post-up play and 3 pt shooting there is a chance.
I am very curious to see what kind of shot blocking numbers we get this year from Alperen with a better POA defense. He is very capable of being top 10 in the NBA in both blocks and steals.
what % chance would you give the post play and the 3 pt shooting (despite jokic being a better shooter from every place on the court at every point in their lives)
Sengun is unlike anything the league has ever seen, which is why he is so difficult to assess. Already, in 2 years, he has some of the filthiest highlights of any player that has ever played, including dunks, passes, post moves, and dribble moves in the open court. There is simply no one like him. I will (again) drill home another aspect of Sengun that I think many people overlook. He has come so damn far in 3-4 years. When he was 16, the guy was a literal fudge pop fat boy that seemingly had no chance of becoming an NBA-level athlete. He has come SO DAMN FAR that I wouldn’t put it past him to go a bit further. By his own admission, he has been working fairly exclusively on his legs, his overall conditioning, and his three-ball, and he is now 6-11 without shoes. Come on now. Buy in Houstonians. Don’t be late to the party again.
post play, about 20 percent, though we are yet to see how his new height will change things. for 3 pt, jokic last 3 regular seasons is 36.5%. I think it is almost certain that Sengun will be on a similar level or better 5 years from now. Jokic has been extraordinary in the playoffs, i don’t think there is much chance Sengun can get there, almost zero.Even jokic may not maintain that in the coming years. Your comparison jokic being the better shooter all their lives is not correct. 20 year jokic 3pt performance was same as 20 year old Sengun. And Sengun’s shooting development is lagging. It is not particularly bad, it hasn’t been worked on as much as it should’ve been. I see potential there.
look at the free throw %, the midrange %, the 3 pt %, jokic is better at basically every point. My issue is you're saying he has a 20% chance to better then BY FAR THE BEST post player in the league, to me that's ludicrus. If you said it's 1%, i would at least take it seriously even if that's still silly, but i get he's your guy and hopefully you're right
Sure opinions and the way we perceive and evaluate things are different. As I said, Sengun's post numbers match well with Jokic at the same stage of their career. Sengun is yet to grow, get stronger, get more respect from refs, get experienced, so I think there is more than 1% chance that he makes the big leap. It is not in the 'extremely unlikely(1%)' category for me, rather 'unlikely but could as well happen'. He'll very likely be the second best post player in the league. I am not sure which % you look at for shooting but Sengun's numbers are pretty much in line with jokic's. Jokic had pretty much similar efficiency the first 5 years, with am outlier in 2nd year. His average ts% is 60% in those 5 years, which is precisely sengun's ts% this year, he was 55% first year. He might be a little behind but not much. If he will improve, stay the same, or go down is yet to be seen. but you can hardly do a statistical argument against Sengun. That's why the haters are screaming 'having the same numbers at a young age does not mean anything. Anyway, nobody other than maj, rocketchamp and verbal will be sorry if Sengun exceeds your expectations or mine. I am hoping, he will perform well enough this year that you will update your percentages.
I can’t imagine what it would take for me to think any player in the league can get to jokic level, but I would be floored if it happens this season, even with wemby or luca or whoever
Glad not to see his posts for a while.When you read one or two, you understand that there is no need for another one.
Let's be honest. That's like someone saying they are dragging Jalen Green down because they think they won't reach Kobe Bryant level. Which would imply I'm dragging Green down as I don't think he will and I'm one of his biggest proponents.
It's really not that complicated. "IF" Sengun gets significantly better from behind the 3pt line next season (2-3 attempts, %33 eff.) he's instantly the most valuable player in our roster because we don't have any superstar prospect imo. IF he takes that leap, he'll be more valuable than Green whom i don't think will ever be a reliable 3 level scorer. Ofc i might be wrong like everybody else but i don't think he has that in him. Why? Because i don't think he has high enough bbiq to stay on that level. That's why he scores 40 with good efficiency and goes missing or his eff drops in the next 3 games. Takes the toughest most stupid shots, his tunnel vision kicks in. He's really athletic, extremely skilled but if you don't have above average bbiq, if you don't know what you should do or shouldn't do at certain moments on offense, if your defensive bbiq is less than zero you are not gonna be able to stay at that level. Then you are doomed to be an inconsistent mess that will not take your team to the next level. I'm not really fond of Beal type of players even if they are 3 level scorers i'm sorry. I don't really give a s-t about their box score. They are inefficient, horrible on D and they are not winners. As much as i don't enjoy watching Jabari i'd bet my money on that he'll end up being a more valuable, overally better player than Green. So yeah if Sengun works on his outside shooting it's not really hard for him to become the undisputed best prospect since we don't have Banchero, Ant, Haliburton or Scoot level of talent. Amen is probably that guy but i'll not be on Amen bandwagon until he fixes his shot which is the most important skill in bb. To be able to score. If he fixes his shot he's EASILY the best prospect in this roster.
A 19-21 year old player being inconsistent with scoring fluctuations is a sign he'll never become an elite three level scorer? News flash. That means every three level scorer today beat the odds which means they didn't beat the odds because beating to odds means you did something that rarely happens. But almost every elite three level scorer if they joined the league at age 19 were inconsistent. Who wasn't? Anthony Edwards? No. Booker? No. Kobe? No. KD? No. Mcgrady? No like who are you referring to then?
I just want season to start. I can't take this bs debates over and over. Let's see how "all" of our roster play together first.
Good analysis. But you're arguing with a cult of fans that believes Sengun's already entitled to MVP but also not ever accountable for anything.
