I believe Alpi's 22/12/6 will be routine in a year or two but want JGreen to score 28+ (or 30+ if possible), Jabari to grab 15 rebs a game. If Alpi + Jabari grab 30 rebs/game and Alpi assists 8+, it is the championship formula. There is no need for "the guy, franchise player, cornerstone" rubbish. Add Tari them with 23' pick, your armada is there, 5 great players supported by 4 very good players (KJM, Garuba or Bruno, TyTy, A.Bona). Team first
He definitely isn't a better scorer. The difference between Green and Alpi in unassisted makes is the same difference between Alpi and someone like Rudy Golbert for his career. Green 60%, Alpi 44% ,Golbert 30%. Green has to do a lot more to score while Alpi gets set up by teammates more often. Bigs most of the time will always have a higher efficiency but that's because along the way a guard got in position to give the big a decent look. So it takes multiple people to give a player who is more dependent on dimes from teammates their efficiency numbers while someone like Green who gets the cast majority of his attempts unassisted is mostly one person generating that efficiency.
I think you can condense it down further to say - you are only as good as your biggest weakness. Ultimately that’s what an opposing team will try to exploit in the last 8-12 games of the season. I’m less concerned that Sengun can score x points or assist x times - what I want to know is what weaknesses does he bring to this team. Currently he doesn’t have very good range - certainly not out to NBA 3 pt line, he gets exposed on pick and roll against quicker players, he often fouls as a help defender, he generally doesn’t get rebounds outside his space(too slow moving towards the ball like GREAT rebounders do), his handles are above average for a big man, but generally aren’t great as an NBA player. He doesn’t have to address all of these things but he can be a 20/10/5 guy and still be bad at the things above and get played off the court in games that matter because stats aren’t a real judge of abilities. Westbrook averaged 10 rebounds because Adams would block out and let him get the boards but if you NEED a rebound, you aren’t lining up Westbrook in the FT box. Prime Kevin Love would try to lobby the stats guys in between quarters to include rebounds he got from end of quarter heaves to pick up a few extra boards a game. I don’t think Sengun is padding stats but don’t let 20/10 fool you into thinking he is a better player than what he actually is.
What does "he can be 20/10/5 player". He is already 19/11 per 32 at the age of 20 years and 5 months. If you compare Alpi to Jokic, Sengun fared better than Jokic in their relative ages so far. 19 yrs old Alpi was better than 19 yrs old Jokic, etc.. What makes you think Sengun will struggle onwards? Why you limiting currently 19/11 per 32 player to 20/10? Imagination problem? Lack of math teaching? Or hoping Silas/KPJ will ignore him eternally? I really want to know how on earth you make "he can be 20/10/5" prediction? It is similar to watching Carl Lewis in old days and prophecizing that "Oh man, this boy can run 100 meters under 10 sec one day". Are you trolling or you have some secrets we are not aware of?
Instead of giving credit to good defenses being able to neutralize Sengun and what the best counter attack should have been we get spammed with whiny excuses and whatabouting to games where he played better - placing blame on everyone else in the process. When Houston falls behind and the opponent is shooting 3's like crazy and building a lead how in the world does it make sense to pound the paint? You cant trade 3's with 2's. If Sengun cant shoot actual jump shots and has trouble defending the perimeter during a game played outside of the paint how do you play him? Give him the ball and hope he can drive by the smaller more athletic defenders to draw fouls? He couldnt even gain a size advantage against their smaller combo guard. Is it ok since Smart is a DPOY guy? Its his teammates inability to pass into the post? Riiiiight. Emotional SOFs cant handle the truth. Go look at his numbers vs top 10 defenses. He's had a couple of games where he showed up, but then there are more games where he was JAG. Those get excused away as Silas issues or teammate issues instead of just being a good observer and tipping the cap to those teams who know how to defend the paint in 2022. An arsenal of baby hooks and average PNR play as a roll man will always limit Sengun without a jumper yet he's supposed to be the first option? Good news though -- HE'S ONLY 20! Constructive criticism isnt an end all to the discussion especially when that is the expectation for any other guy on the team learning how to be a better player. Last night Sengun was unplayable due to varying issues with that specific game. Its up to Sengun to make himself indispensable and not be one of those guys who are limited depending on the opponent. His career arc looks fantastic, but big picture thinking is giving way to instant gratification. He NEEDS a jumper in the worst way if he truly is going to reach this "superstar" status that his most devout fans seem to believe is evident today. And then you get the con men who make absurd statements like 'Alpi is a better scorer than Jalen - he can score anywhere" when the guy is useless as an offensive player outside of the restricted zone! LOL like shooting the basketball is KINDA important in this sport! Cant take these guys seriously.
Oh man... Alpi has the moves to score inside, but the coaching staff don't want him to fight in the paint. They believe it slows the game down and takes away from the guards, on whom Silas's so called "system" leans. 1- Alpi's scoring is quite efficient, so there's no need to take away several facets of his game. Do the math; you will see it's much more favorable than shooting contested 3's on an off day. (For that, the team has to have guards who can pass the ball inside without turning it over of course.) 2- Whenever Alpi has the ball inside and goes to work, his teammates just freeze and watch him outside the 3-pt line instead of cutting or screening to get another player free for a 3-pt.er. Alpi loves passing the ball for a good play, but nobody else seems to want the ball back (except for KMJ & sometimes Tate). Now Alpi's being used as a p&r guy, at which he's also good. But this takes a toll on his unassisted shot % and assist #s.
You can laugh but that’s how actual winning teams put their rosters together - as evidence by 95% of title contending teams of the last few decades - not from collecting individuals who put up stats. If you want to do that, you can become a Kings fan which is incidentally who likely current Sengun comp Sabonis plays for.
No dude your problem is that your thinking is way too old school. 30 efficient points created and competent defense is a star-like net positive at any position in any era. There was no prototype for Jokic, he is not an old school C at all in any shape or form. The goal of any rebuild is to build a contender. What I learned from modern contenders is that Brook Lopez can become a DPOY candidate while averaging less than 6 rebounds and playing drop coverage to hide his perimeter slowness. That Draymond Green can score practically nothing and a dynasty can form on top of that. You can say you don't believe Sengun will average 20 points, 5 assists and competent defense. But there is not a shred of evidence that can prove it can't be your 2nd or 3rd best player on a title team.
I’ve mostly avoided this thread but geez- the Sengun only fans are “special”…and not in a good way. Talk about not being able to see the forrest from the trees….these guys are standing around with their eyes clothes and a piece of bark in their hands and are CONVINCED they are holding a mighty redwood - never mind the forrest…or the team or the league trends. Not wasting my time with that echo chamber.
Before insulting others and name calling them it is better to answer the basic questions you were asked. You are similar to a guy watching JGreen and predicting : "He can be 22 ppg player". If you don't post in this thread, good of you. The thread is around 350 pages and we don't need any more shortsightedness. Good luck.
No dude - YOU are thinking old school if you think building a contender is about 2nd and 3rd best players or DPOY candidates…Brook Lopez is a bench guy in the most important games for the Bucks because he has too many weak links teams can exploit DESPITE being a DPOY candidate. You are only as good as your weakest link and Sengun had a lot of weak links despite a lot of positive efficiency metrics. Is there a world where Sengun is the 2nd or 3rd best player on a title team? Maybe but I think the odds are overwhelmingly stacked against him. Right now his greatest value add is when the offense is run through him but elite teams who have time to game plan in the playoffs will make it hard to keep Sengun on the court because he will be ruthlessly exploited defensively. THAT is why I am skittish around building around Sengun because you can’t build an offense around him if ultimately you have to sub him out of games like Lopez to protect a lead against good teams. At least Lopez works as a cog in a machine - the best version of Sengun is a big part of the machine and he adds far less as a cog because he isn’t a good shooter. Doesn’t space the floor, doesn’t handle the ball well, etc.
This will not age well. I’ll enjoy bringing it up later - I always do. if y’all can’t learn from 350 pages, there is little hope for you.
Good luck. You are pulling more assumptions out of your ass than any Sengun fan on this thread has done. Not saying it's because of bias, but it may look like that to many.
Promise me that we will discuss this in future. I would like to see your crimson face or hear your broken voice. Deal.
You make a good point about Brook Lopez not closing games, I'm just curious do you feel this way about our other poor defenders? Or is this specifically because Sengun plays center?
I’m happy to eat crow on this one - ultimately if I have a bias it’s on building a contending team so if Sengun turns into a mold breaking big of the future, then more power to him and this team….I’m just highly skeptical as a guy who has watched and played a lot more high level basketball than the average fan and who currently makes a living coaching executives on strategic development, systems thinking, and building high performing teams. I see a lot of people in this thread diving deep into the players and losing sight of the team goals or the big picture of how successful players of his mold fare both on and against the teams at the top. True outliers don’t come around too often….but hey, if he manages to break that mold, I’m happy to buy y’all a beer and celebrate it. It’s all good either way-I’ll be happy to celebrate being right or being wrong and having a better team because of it.
I'm one of these executives, and I would recommend to a coach (about three per day try to connect with me on LinkedIn) to keep an open mind and not draw too many conclusions from false base assumptions. Always challenge your own assumptions first.
It’s true for any player. I just worry in particular for Sengun because his effectiveness centers around the offense running through him. It’s one thing to sub out a Lopez like player when you need to - it’s another to sub out the hub of your offense because you can’t play him on defense.
