No, I won't compare it to the worst case scenario of all the bigs who never stuck lol. Oh and no, you don't have to be Embiid, Jokic or AD to earn $20m+ at the C spot. A person who can produce 20 points and 5 assists efficiently is producing 30+ points for you. If he can be competent at anchoring the defense, he is going to be a huge plus on the court. Jokic was considered a max player when his defense was below average and he was putting up 20 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists and 0.6 blocks at 24 years old (meaning 3 years from now for Alpi). Are you telling me 2 assists is the difference between being elite or having to be replaced? That's not a reasonable assertion. To me, there's a big difference between Vucevic and Sengun. I can see it clearly. If you can't see a difference, then sure you're going to be pessimistic about his future. The truth is Sengun is a unicorn of sorts who doesn't fit into a clear comparison point so people think if he doesn't fit into some far flung comparison point then there's no path for him. I'll bet on the guy who won MVP of the 3rd or 4th best basketball league in the world at 18 years old to blaze a trail.
I forgot to mention that Sabonis was 22 yo on his 3rd year and his 3rd year stats are pretty identical to 20 yo, 2nd year Sengun stats. That should give you an idea about Sengun's future.
1. 20 years old Alpi is better than 32 years old Vucevic. Vuvevic plays 32.7 mpg. Let's compare per 32.7 Vucevic: 16.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 50.6 % fg Sengun : 17.6 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.1 bpg, 55.4 % fg. ALPI IS BETTER IN ALL CATEGORIES!!! What is this shortsightedness to compare him to Vucevic? What is the agenda? 2. What make you think that if a player will be "very good" if they catch the level of superstars only. Make Embiid and Jokic to Alpi comparison to Luka and Steph to JGreen. Do we have to think JGreen will be only average player if he does not become as good as Luka or Steph Curry? Alpi and JGreen are unique players and will be superstars. JGreen might not finish his career as good as MJordan or Kobe, Alpi might not be as good as Hakeem or Kareem but it does not mean to compare Alpi to Vucevic or JGreen to Landry Shamet. Please respect to our players and stop silly comparisons.
Why you limited a 24 years old Alpi to 5 assists? I'll be very surprised if he makes less than 7 assists per game when he becomes 24. His stats in that age to be projected as: 22-25 ppg 12-15 rpg 7-8 apg 1.5 spg 1.5 bpg If not, he is a bust, another NCAA big.
Except for the money he makes. Vucevic's salary for 22-23 is $22M. Alpi's is $3,375,360. Vucevic makes almost 8 times more than Sengun. If this is the salary Alpi will demand at the end of his contract (and I believe his market will be way higher) there's no way the cheapskate Rockets are paying it! No wonder they don't include him in their long term plans.
I don’t think prime Vucevic is a bad player and I’m not comparing him now to Sengun now. If you would pull yourself out of the “y’all are out to get Sengun” bubble you are trying to live in, you would see I’m talking about the relative value of old school bigs in todays game. I’m not trying to compare Sengun directly to any of those players. I’m saying that for all of Sengun’s many strengths as a player, modern contending teams aren’t built around old school bigs unless you are really exceptional. While I think Alpi can be very good(Sabonis is a good comp to me), you see how old school bigs of caliber often get relegated to the bench against the very best teams. It’s why Brook Lopez would sit on the bench for PJ Tucker during tight games or why you have seen very few old school bigs on the floor in conference finals/Finals teams in the last 15 years. It’s not that Alpi can’t be a good player in the league but this whole rebuild is about contending again and if those types of players get exposed for their limitations against the very best competition then you have to dial back how much you build a team or an offense around them because it’s not coincidental that really good 2nd tier bigs of the last decade like Sabonis, Vucevic, Gobert, Towns, and Valanciunis don’t often find themselves being impactful playoff players. Now if you think Sengun can one day get to Jokic’s level, then I can see why you would want to run an offense/build a team through Alpi. I personally want us to keep Alpi but if unlocking the very best version of Alpi means running an offense through him full time and he isn’t quite good enough to become prime Jokic/Embid- then you have handicapped your team’s ceiling at the expense of a player who ultimately through no fault of his own, isn’t good enough to carry a modern team to a title.
Your error is you are thinking in terms of players and plays and not teams and trends. Answer this question - what is the ultimate goal of this rebuild? …if your answer doesn’t have something to do with bringing a title to Houston than you are doing it wrong. Okay then let’s look at modern title contenders - teams playing in Finals and conference Finals consistently- what can we learn from that? I’ll tell you - unless you are Jokic or Embid level good(true MVP caliber), then you cant be an old school big and be a huge part of your team because modern teams can scheme those players off the court. Alpi as a player is very good, has a high ceiling - ALL of that…but I don’t think he is Jokic/Embid good and if he isn’t, does that make him essential to a true title contending team based on the trends of the last 15-20 years? It’s not a coincidence that centers in today’s game for contending teams are just versatile and switchable dudes with lower ceilings than Sengun. The best centers in the tier below Embid and Jokic are often at home watching Conference Finals and Finals games.
I have a book called "Modern Chemistry" written in 1929. What does modern mean and how long it continues to be modern? No one here wants Alpi to become the highest scoring player in championship team. In a current Rox roster JGreen should be the scorer, Jabari is the rebounder and Alpi should become effective screener and assisting guy. But quite a lot assists, at least 8 per game. His 22+ points and circa 14 rebs will come automatically. There are lots of playing patterns and you should apply the best in accordance with your squad. Draft Scoot, play 2 bigs, draft Wemby, 3 then. Who cares then what modern play or shorter teams play through guards. When Lauri was in Cavs they played 3 bigs, Markkanen left and Cavs became more guards team. That is the formula: Efficiently use your roster. Jokic is very good player but his 24 years old stats are very easy to be passed by Alpi. It does not make Jokic bad player but confirms Alpi as a great player. If Alpi does not get 20/10/7 as a 24 years old, he is a bust. Alpi was a top 8 draft in 2021 and not drafting him till 16 is GMs' ignorance not Alpi's lack of talent. Embiid played with the best players and succeeded non. I don't like Embiid/Harden/Westbrick type of solo players. TEAM FIRST!. Push JGreen to score 28+, train Jabari for 15+ rebs and tell Alpi to assist 8. Your Alpi description fits to Dwight Powell more than Sengun.
You believing that Alpi not reaching the trajectory of a 2 time MVP will make him a bust is asking to be set up for disappointment. It's akin to me saying that if Green doesn't reach Kobe level he's a bust. I also can do the stat trajectory thing with second year Kobe and second year Green and assume Green will have a better career but I would be stupid to believe that.
nice inspiring writing, thank you.... oth imho alpi is a better scorer than jalen already and can become even more better... hes a beast.....just underutilized and held back by management...scoring is easy to alpi...jalen struggles to score despite green light and preferential treatment..alpi can be luka like player and even better
I don't know the technicalities much but Sengun's new contract will be a problem for Rockets It is certain that Rox will milk him till to the end of 2026 ($7.6 M that year- still lower than Jabari's rookie salary) but can't keep him longer if they don't want to pay current day $30M+/year. It happened in Detroit (Memo signed $60M with Jazz), in San Antonio (Hedo signed $39M with Magic) and in Chicago (Omer signed $25M with Rockets). Memo's $60M package is equal to $30M/year now and I am sure 5th year Alpi will be better than 2nd year Memo. Enjoy Alpi as long as he wears Rockets jersey and hope he signs multiple contracts with Houston.
I gave JGreen/Kobe example before. You should read more carefully. Jokic is a multiple MVPs and hope he becomes more but his 24 years old stats were not jaw dropping. It is that simple. Hope you understand this time.Hope.
