Understood... thanks for the clarification. Don't forget the walks he's drawn with the bases loaded to score a run, such as he did this last weekend. Do I want him to hit? Absolutely. But his walk rate with RISP tells me that he's not going to swing at a bad pitch like many sluggers do merely because they're the power bats. I'd rather have Jason Lane swing at a good pitch (as bad as he's playing right now) than Adam Dunn swinging at a bad one... having the patience to take a base instead of trying to make something out of nothing is never a bad quality. As far as the actual numbers, Baqui's incorrect... he's hitting .203 with RISP, not .185. Still bad, but figured I would correct the mistake. Also, while BA is important, it's not the entire story. His slugging percentage of almost .500 with RISP shows that he's getting many extra-base hits, which can potentially score 2-3 runs and get the runner on first home as well. While he might not be the most consistent in slapping a single to the left-fielder to score one run, he'll more than make up for that (with RISP) by his extra-base power that can score more than a routine .330 singles hitter would. It (the total runs produced) tends to even out. I'll agree to disagree there... it's just a difference of personal philosophy. As hot/cold as Lane is (he makes Hidalgo look consistent), he's still a legitimate power threat, which this team has to have as long as we're starting a no-show for power (Burke) at a position that demands it. If we get Dunn, however, the equation changes. Even in that scenario, though, let's shoot for two cases of Shiner so we can each have one. I hope you're right, Max... but I've thought that about many players in the past and been disappointed. I thought it about Hidalgo in 2000. Richard has me so wary of career years that I've almost turned exclusively to a numbers guy to not end up that disappointed again. That said, Ensberg's such a good contact hitter that even though he probably doesn't have elite power, he'll be serviceable in those times that he doesn't. So I'm optimistic he'll be a very good player... one of our best 3B ever... but I want to see this streak continue for a little longer before I say he's better than Adam Dunn. But, I absolutely love the optimism... I wish more of our fans had it. RF07, RBI are even less relevant than batting average. At least Dunn mostly controls his own batting average. RBI are greatly dependent on how many of your teammates get on base for you, and it's not as if Cincinnati has had great teams in recent years. Most people judge slugging ability by independent factors that are entirely within the batters' control, such as slugging, OPS, extra base hits, homers, etc... not stats such as RBI that depend on the ability of teammates in front of you to reach base. In terms of OPS, slugging and those stats, Dunn is one of the best sluggers in the National League.
Check out my edited post with RISP. As I said those numbers are awful, he's had the chance to drive in runs in Cinci, he just hasn't been able to do it.
Again, that's batting average alone... I don't mind if he hits .150 with RISP if his OPS is above .900, like it is this year with RISP. In the end, if your OPS is that high, you will likely generate the necessary runs. Furthermore, the value of a player like Dunn so dependent on extra-base hits only increases if you put him on a good team because he is more likely to have that additional runner on first that can be driven in.
Not really. He gets a hit in FEWER than one at bat out of every four. That is not irrelevant. Sure he hits a lot of home runs...but he also hits into a lot of rally killing double plays.
It's irrelevant by itself. You don't win in baseball by getting the most hits. You win in baseball by getting the most runs. He doesn't have to get a base hit as often if he's getting more bang for the buck (i.e. a double or homer instead of a single) on the hits he does get. For example, a player with a 3-5 night with three singles often wasn't as valuable to his team that night as a player who had a 1-5 night but had a 2 or 3-run homer for that hit. Is batting average relevant? Absolutely, if the players are all getting singles or doubles or anything where all the hits are the same. But when you have varying degrees of hits, BA becomes close to irrelevant and the amount of total bases becomes a more valid predictor of scoring and producing runs. Also, hits into double plays? Dunn is a flyball hitter who also has a high K rate, making him one of the least double play prone players in all of baseball, hitting them in only 0.4 percent of his at-bats this season.
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/sports/3252593 Weren't there reports that the Reds were looking to unload any of their outfielders? I wonder why we don't go after Willy Mo Pena (outside the houston connection between Dunn)
I have to agree with The Cat here. The problem with Dunn is that he almost always gets pitched around. There's a reason why the guy ranked #6 in walks last year. Looking up and down the Reds lineup, why would ANY pitcher ever give Dunn anything to hit, much less with RISP? This explains why Dunn has such a high OBP in such situations, but a very low BA. In Houston, our future lineup should give Dunn ample opportunities provided things go right. #1 Taveras #2 Burke #3 Berkman #4 Dunn #5 Ensberg The key is for Burke/Taveras to be able to get on base. If they, or whoever Pupura manages to find to replace them, can't get on base, then the Astros are screwed no matter what. But if both blossom, Dunn will certainly provide the power to drive them in. Oh, and Dunn is only 25 years old. Which means he's actually capable of big improvements, while a very low risk for a sharp decline. All things considered, if it only takes our 3 nice pitching prospects for this trade, the Astros should absolutely jump on it.
Okay.. Buchholz has totally disappointed since we got him so i could (still reluctantly) throw him in as bait.. along with Astacio and Burke.. BUT there's NO freakin' way you throw in Fernando Nieve right now.. he just got promoted to Round Rock a few weeks ago and I'm sure management wants to see how he settles down in AAA. But those are 3 of our top 4 or 5 young, MLB-ready pitchers right now. I mean, it's not that Nieve or any of these pitchers are that good, i'd just rather take the gamble of one of these pitchers panning out than letting all of them go for Dunn. Obviously, i'm not that sold on him either. *sigh* okay.. actually, the more i talk about it the more i'm inclined to make this move.. I just think the New Caney kid is way overrated. and atleast Troy Patton got promoted to AA a few weeks ago.
Here's an article from the Cincinnati Post to add a little fuel to the speculation. They need pitching help, they have a replacement for Dunn, & he might be available. While the writer is saying it's a bad idea, he is talking about it. Hmmmm...... It also reiterates what The Cat was talking about in regards to Dunn getting on base & having no protection in the batting order. Dunn being on the Astros with Berkman, Ensberg, & hopefully, Bagwell is worthy of another hmmmmm...... http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050704/SPT05/507040374/1027 At this point, Dunn deal doesn't add up Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler A lot of the Reds' hardest decisions revolve around Adam Dunn, and we're not talking about where to put the big guy in the batting order. On second thought, maybe we will talk about that for a moment, because Jerry Narron seems to have a swell idea. Dunn was batting second Sunday for the second time in days - sandwiched around a seventh and a fourth - in spite of his 21 homers and 275 pounds. The jocular Texan is not your prototypical sacrifice bunter - it took him a couple years of hard swinging to produce a sacrifice fly - but he is brimming with that hot sabermetric commodity, get-on-baseness, which is particularly useful for the top of the order. The man walks a lot, partly because he's picky for a guy who will eat anything, and partly because pitchers tend to steer clear of 500-foot strikes if they can. Plus, the person Dunn drives in the most is his big ol' country self, in which case you may as well move him up in the order for another whack at Mehring Way. "I've been thinking about it for a long while, really," said Narron, the interim manager. "Dunn gets on base." There's a fair chance, of course, that the bases on balls will taper off for the long-hitting Longhorn, what with Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey batting behind him; but that, in turn, could extrapolate to more home runs. If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week. For a refreshingly normal major-leaguer, meanwhile, Dunn is a most peculiar ballplayer. He reaches base in spite of a low batting average. He's a power hitter who leaves runners in scoring position. He's a strikeout prodigy that teams don't want to pitch to. He's also 25 and on pace for nearly 90 homers over two years; for a career rate of almost 40 a season. He's eminently durable, which should not be underestimated on Team Disabled List. And he, you know, walks. OK, the man is no Tris Speaker in the outfield (although, equipped with major-league wit, he is a pretty good Extemporaneous Speaker). A lot of folks think his natural place is first base, where he acquits himself adequately but Casey holds forth. And so, as it goes, the question often comes down to those two. Whom do you trade? There is no window of winning streak, no breakout of bats, no punch-up of pitching that can save the Reds from being sellers at the trading deadline four weeks from now. Their payroll is poorly spent, which means that it will be significantly reduced as soon as the opportunity presents itself. Dan O'Brien, the general manager, has tiptoed through the obvious and double-talked his way to that very deduction. This brings us to the commodities market that is the Cincinnati clubhouse. Among the irregularities concerning young Dunn is that, having avoided arbitration last year to the jingling of $4.6 million, he stands to make a heck of a lot more from it after this season is over. He'll make, in effect, Casey money. The Reds can afford both of them, but will probably lead us to believe that they can't. Of the two, Dunn - six years Casey's junior - is more likely to fetch the kind of pitcher the Reds can no longer do without. Nobody else in O'Brien's portfolio offers the exchange value of his left fielder. But if you trade Dunn in the midst of a youth movement - and there have been rumbles to that effect - how do you explain it to the paying customers? Short of Albert Pujols, who in the game is a more productive hitter at his age? All of this assumes that the Yankees or Braves or some other well-heeled contender will not be tempted by Griffey's steady march toward his illustrious past. All of it assumes that the Cincinnati landscape will remain overgrown with executive complications - that Carl Lindner isn't traded for an owner who will hire a COO who won't send his general manager to the plate with his shoes tied together. In the meantime, color Joe Randa gone but don't count on an ace in return; or even a pair of fives. Hope that Austin Kearns is not redeemed at well below market value. Ponder Wily Mo Pena. Pena is two years younger than Dunn, with every bit the power; nobody in the business has more. He makes $440,000 but after the season will be eligible for first-time arbitration, which will be kind to him. His tools elicit drools. For those reasons, the Reds could perhaps justify retaining him instead of his left-handed counterpart - if, that is, they place no value on two specific items: If they don't care about a player's capacity for staying in the lineup day after day. If they don't care about how it all looks. To trade Dunn would be to cash in whatever good faith remains in the organization; to sell out the few fans whose extraordinary patience has kept them coming to the park. To trade Dunn would be to perpetuate a rebuilding process that never gets beyond the subfloor. To trade Casey would be hard. To trade Pena would be hard. To trade Dunn would be regrettable.
man, i can't see them trading Dunn to a division rival. the more i think about it, the less likely i think it is to happen.
Usually the stuff you read about for weeks never ends up happening. I think he would really give us some much needed offense...now and for years to come. It'll be interesting to see what happens now that LA needs an OF (unless they are going to rely on Bradley and Ledee coming back full stregnth) and the Cubs and Yankees do as well.
Found this on the chronicle website... Come on Purpura! The Astros need Dunn. Dunn deal? As of Monday afternoon, Astros owner Drayton McLane said general manager Tim Purpura had not asked him to approve a trade for Cincinnati slugger Adam Dunn, a New Caney High graduate. According to a report, the Astros have been working on a deal to acquire Dunn for prospects Ezequiel Astacio, Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve. "He hasn't brought anything to me," McLane said of Purpura. "That's why you're catching me totally off guard. I don't know of anything like that, but we would have to look at what we'd have to give up. "You look at each of the last six years, we've given up two to four players every year. So it catches up to you." Purpura later told the Chronicle the rumored trade was a "media fabrication."
