They're also nowhere close to as good. NIKE, if we're high enough on Nieve and are able to do a deal without him, I'd be more willing to try a McLemore and another young prospect hitter before I'd give Burke. Burke, while poor for a corner OF, has potential to be a competent 2B, and at Biggio's age I don't want to not have a backup plan in the next couple of years should he fall off the cliff like many his age do. While Burke wouldn't be a deal breaker (hell, I'd give the three aforementioned pitchers and Burke if it came to it), he's one I'd like to hold onto if possible due to the scarcity of his position. But yes, if the Reds require Burke, I'd still ship him off in a heartbeat. As far as Justice, as Blatz already said, someone sent him the link to Astros Daily. Nothing more than that. As I expected, the Reds would want much more than those three pitchers. But, if there's a positive out of the Justice blog, it's that his sources say the Reds will almost definitely move him because of his salary. If they are sold on moving him, maybe they become a little more desperate to make a move as the weeks pass and we can get him for less than his value.
Let's just say...this rumor has legs...ok, who plays, Burke or Lane? If I had a vote (LOL) it would be ta ta to Lane's taters. I think Burke has so much more upside.
How much legs? I agree that Burke should be the player to get the other outfield spot. Lane has power and decent defense, but he seems to be overmatched at the plate most of the time. If Bagwell does come back next year, Dunn and Berkman go to the outfield and Willy will have to cover alot of room out there.
eh, not that much. Berkman's become a pretty decent corner outfielder - and Dunn can cover a bunch of ground with his loping stride. We also have short porches - so the corner outfield position isn't that demanding of speed. Besides, half the point of having a speedy CF is to cover for defensive inadequacies so we can put more pop in the lineup.
That deal would be a freaking steal for us, I can't believe some people would actually be against it! I don't see it happening though.
No way do I give up Nieve along with Buchholz and Astacio for a career .248 hitter. Buchholz and Astacio I'd think about.
I'd do it in a heart beat! If something like this goes through, it would be one of the BIGGEST steals in the history of the MLB.
Bad news, Buchholz left his last start in the 1st inning with shoulder stiffness. Probley nothing serious because he had surgery in the offseason.
in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. i'm with you...i'm not SOLD on dunn. but i think the astros will make a run for him. to make a SPLASH to cool down their whining "fans."
What Baqui fails to mention is that Dunn has an incredible .442 OBP with RISP and an excellent .932 OPS. As I said earlier, BA is next to irrelevant by itself... if you're getting on base and producing runs, I don't care if you hit .150. Furthermore, almost every study I've read shows that strikeouts for hitters have very little relevance to run production. Can you kill rallies by not making contact? Absolutely. But the contact hitters who don't strike out can also kill rallies by hitting into a greater percentage of double plays. Most experts agree that these things balance themselves out in the end. That said, would I want an entire lineup of players who strikeout a lot? Absolutely not... it's best to have a good mix and balance of different varieties of hitters. But it's not as if one or two strikeout heavy hitters kill your offense. Max, I respect your opinion and you're generally one of the better baseball minds in this forum. But this isn't about fans whining. I've watched almost every inning this summer and I love this team... it's one of the most exciting groups of guys I've seen us put together. I think this group (without a significant change) can compete for a WC berth. It's not about being discontent with our current guys. It's about an incredibly rare opportunity to add one of baseball's elite sluggers at only 25 years old with 2.5 years to go before he even becomes a free agent! It's about getting what would instantly become the second best hitter in this entire organization and provide one of the best 3-4-5 combinations in all of baseball. And if you can get that combination, keep the speed of Taveras and Burke and the pitching of Clemens, Oswalt, Pettitte and Lidge, you have one of the best teams in the league. This is a deal I'd take in a heartbeat... but as Justice said, it's going to take much, much more to get Dunn from Cincinnati.
Ensberg is slightly better than Dunn right now. But, as much as I love Morgan, his career production (before this last month), his minor league production and his projected talent do not suggest he'll remain at this level forever. I think he's certainly a very good hitter - above .800 OPS every season I would expect - but I think it's very unlikely for Morgan to have the kind of season he's having now for the remainder of his career. This is likely one of Morgan's career years, and he's barely above what appears to be a routine year for Adam Dunn. That alone should speak to how valuable Dunn is.
Cat: 1. I'm not sure how I feel in total about the Dunn deal. So I was not trying to say that if you're pro-Dunn, you're a whiner...rather that this franchise takes heat year in and year out from its "fans" no matter what moves it makes. The "fans" write them off prematurely and second guess everything. 2. Dunn isn't the kind of player I just want getting on base with RISP. A guy like that needs to be driving in runs. His batting average, in my opinion, with RISP is far more telling than his on-base percentage during that span. Of course, he's gonna get walked in many of those situations. 3. I would NOT call Dunn an "elite slugger." I just wouldn't. Way too many strikeouts...and you can't discount batting average entirely. I've heard the "experts" talk about strikeouts being not that bad of a thing...and that it all evens out in the end. I still don't buy it. I've read those reports over and over again. I just don't buy it. That doesn't mean I'm right. I just don't agree with it. The negative about putting the ball in play is that you MIGHT hit into a DP. But as a player, you're taught to put the ball in play...players aren't up at the plate trying to strike out. The inability of a guy to hit for contact is somewhat telling. Dunn is a slugger. Not an elite slugger. 4. Having said all of that...I'm completely open to a trade for Dunn. Not because I think he's so great, but because I think he may be just what the Astros need...a slugger. They could really use a prototype 3 hole hitter....but I guess Berkman will ultimately be that again, when he gets his knee better. And I'm also not sold on ANY of the guys reportedly going to Cincy. I'm ready to give them Jason Lane for a case of Shiner. And I think that might still be unfair for the Reds. 5. Morgan Ensberg is the real deal. This isn't a career year...this is him scratching the surface..finding himself. And here's the kicker...he can field the hell out of his position. He hits for power, good average, has some speed, has good range at 3B...all of those things together combine for someone I'd say is definitely more valuable than Adam Dunn, all around. Hard to find a 3B like that.
What about the fact that he's not a great RBI guy. Yeah, he hits a lot of home runs, but with Dunn, it's either a HR or a K. Look at his career stats: 2001: 244 AB .262 19 HR 43 RBI 74 K .203 RISP 2002: 535 AB .249 26 RBI 71 RBI 170 K .208 RISP 2003: 381 AB .215 27 HR 57 RBI 126 K .170 RISP 2004: 568 AB .266 46 HR 102 RBI 195 K .239 RISP 2005: 268 AB .246 21 HR 44 RBI 87 K .203 RISP Those numbers hardly constitute your title of "elite slugger". Those RISP numbers are awful. He's driven in 100 only once, and really hasn't come close in other seasons (projected for 86 this year, and would have had 85 with 560 ABs in 2003). I better get a guy who produces a lot more runs if I'm giving up three of my best arms in the minors.
