I still think this is just dreaming because there is no way the Reds will trade him within the division. I hope that i'm wrong though.
True but what NL Pitcher would want to face a middle of the lineup with Berkman,Ensberg, Dunn and Pena??
You must be joking. There is no way the Reds will trade Pena. I do think we can get Dunn from them though.
I can't believe some of you are so high on Lane that you would rather trade Burke over him. Lane (28) is batting only .230 and will be replaced by Dunn (25) in the outfield. Burke has been hitting well lately, and would provide the Astros a solid outfielder until Biggio retires and Hunter Pence is ready to come up.
frankly, i'm not high on either one of them. but burke is younger, so i give him the benefit of the doubt. and he can field a middle infield position, so that's a plus. but i've been disappointed by both of these guys.
What kind of sample size are you using? Here's Lane's numbers by month: (AVG/OPS) April: 0.295/0.887 May: 0.118/0.366 June: 0.259/0.955 Last year, Lane batted 0.272. Here's Burke: April: 0.238/0.551 May: (minors) June: 0.244/0.661 Burke's had a nice two weeks, but that's a silly sample size. Pick two weeks, and Lane's numbers were off the charts. I think some of Burke's value is that he plays 2nd, but we're apparently not playing him at 2nd, and if we keep Biggio around for 2 or 3 more years, Burke's going to basically be a converted outfielder. Given that you only keep a few "franchise" players more than about 4 or 5 years, I don't care about their ages - neither is likely to get old while in an Astros uniform. If both are outfielders, why not try to keep the one that has been better, both in his minor league career and major league career and is naturally an outfielder? It would be different if (a) we needed a leadoff/speed guy or (b) we needed a 2B, but neither of these are the case. We need power, and we need outfield help. I'd much rather have an outfield of Lane/Dunn/Taveras than Burke/Dunn/Taveras.
That's a lot for a guy that hits .250 and strikes out a ton. Zeke and BUrke are 2 of our top 5 prospects, and considering 2 of the other 3 in the top 5 - Pence, Patton - are playing A ball, that's a pretty big hit for our already-terrible farm system. I think people (even the Astros) underrate Burke a LOT - he's a good hitter, and he's starting to pick the ball up better already. Don't count this guy out - I think if we trade him he's gonna be putting up Mark Loretta stats for another team. And Lane will end the year over.265 - he's too good of a hitter.
I've been a big Lane supporter in the past, and still think he's an OK corner of, but your argument overlooks the simple fact that age is a factor in player improvement. Lane is 28, and thus very unlikely to improve. Position players by and large peak at 27. He's shown us his best. Burke is 25, and still has some room to grow. His major and minor league numbers compare well to Lane's when you consider their respective ages at the time those numbers were put up. Lane's numbers at AAA when he was 26 can't be compared reasonably to Burke's when Burke was 23. 26 is old for AAA, you should be able to dominate the minors at that age. And while Biggio is playing pretty well at 2B and putting up numbers similar to what he did last year, it would be a mistake to assume that a 39-year-old is going to hold down that position for 3 more years as a regular without any sort of contingency plan in place if his skills deteriorate and he becomes Willie Mays out there (Mays dropped off greatly when he hit 40). I'm not saying that will happen, but you can't take it for granted that it won't.
I can't believe some of you are so high on Lane that you would rather trade Burke over him. Both are unproven. Lane had a better minor league career. I don't think Lane will be a star in the league, but he has shot at being an eveyday starter. Same could be said for Burke.
but your argument overlooks the simple fact that age is a factor in player improvement. Lane is 28, and thus very unlikely to improve. Position players by and large peak at 27. He's shown us his best. Burke is 25, and still has some room to grow. I don't buy it. Peaking at 27 would mean that most players peak in the 3rd or 4th year in the league. It would mean that most players peak before they ever hit free agency. Besides which, players have to face live pitching to improve. Lane plateaued in AAA ... there wasn't much more to learn. It's going to take seeing major league pitching to improve any further. I think both have plenty of room for improvement.
27's the number I've seen. And I'm not saying they peak and then go downhill, just that in general the pattern is there's marked improvement until that age and then a plateau through the career until they begin to slide due to age. Of course, every player is different. Ensberg this season is basically duplicating his 2nd half in 2003 (when he was 27), so he holds true to form. Bagwell had his best season (MVP) at 26. Lance Berkman had his best seasons to date at 25/26, hitting .330, 40 home runs, leading the league in RBI. Biggio peaked a little later, with his best seasons when he was around 30. Richard Hidalgo had by far his best season when he was 25. Carlos Beltran had his monster season last year when he was 27. Sure there are exceptions out there, but most players peak in their mid to late 20s, with 27 being a common age. You don't have to like the facts, but you can go up and down major league lineups and see the same pattern.
I've seen a couple articles/studies that basically back this up. Most position players peak between the ages of 27-29.
Why doesn't that make sense? Within three or four years most players will be adjusted enough to perform at a major league level - but their bodies will not have been worn down significantly due to work-load and wear and tear.
A good pitching prospect and TWO of our starting outfielder for a guy batting .240. How exactly is that a fair deal?
Because Burke and Lane are batting for a lower average and Dunn has a higher OPS than anyone on our entire team? The deal isn't close to fair... for the Reds. But, it's very rare to get full value for a stud like Dunn so we still have a chance.
Brutlett hit 1 HR for every 15 plate appearances last year. If he played everyday, we're looking at a 45 HR/year guy!
