I took his point being that the season is lost and there is no reason that any position player not likely on next year's roster to get playing time. Besides for there being a chance to pull this one out, you've listed a couple more. I thought about listing the harm that selling out would send, but don't think it is needed as the chance the Astros still pull this one out, while small, is still big enough not to throw a season away. Almost every playoff team needs a few 2nd division starters to fill out the lineup. If Bregman and Gurriel become professional hitters, Valbuena would be a nice guy as the 6th best hitter.
Fwiw I was a huge advocate for trading for Lucroy. But now that they are out of the playoff hunt, it serves them better to try to get Reed, Bregman, and others established than to give veterans who won't be here more time.
This time last year, Rangers playoffs odds were basically the same as the Astros currently. It was just silly that the Rangers kept playing their veterans last year and traded for Hamels when they were out of the hunt.
No they weren't. They were 8 games back prior to the trade deadline, not in the 2nd week of August. Also, that was a miraculous combo of scorching play by the Rangers combined with an epic meltdown by Houston along with other teams cooperating; any team planning on that is foolish. And again, Hamels was not a pending free agent. In fact I'm not sure the Rangers did play any pending free agents down the stretch last year.
Astros are 4 games back in the wild card. Astros odds for playoffs are 12.9% by Fangraphs. Rangers playoff odds were at 10.6% on August 12 of last year (14.5% on August 9). Rangers would have made playoffs without Astros epic meltdown.
That still doesn't change my point that they didn't have pending free agents in their everyday lineup. A ~10% chance of making the playoffs isn't enough to justify playing pending free agents over younger higher ceiling players, especially considering the younger players may be even better and more productive than the pending free agents they replace.
We are talking about 1 batter, Valbuena, as he's the only veteran that really matters in this discussion as the others aren't really helping team. Him being in the lineup does not impact whether Reed, Bregman, and Kemp get PAs. Getting White into the the lineup for an extra 150 PAs is not worth benching Valbuena. Your point is ludicrous with 50 games to go and 4 games back.
While I don't think the Astros should give up on the season, I also think we've reached a point where Bregman, Reed and, when he's up, Gurriel should be in the line-up every day. Same for Marisnick, too, frankly. They need the experience and we need to figure out what we have before we enter the offseason. And I disagree - playing highly-touted youngsters who have earned their shot sends no damning message whatsoever. Alex Bregman was among the five-best prospects in baseball; last year, Reed was among the top 25. Finding out if those guys can play is a normal extension of building a team, and if any player, fan and/or potential FA doesn't understand that, then they don't have a very high baseball IQ.
It's not a baseball IQ thing. It's a loyalty and veteran deference thing. If Valbuena comes back healthy before the season ends and he gets benched for Reed and Bregman, while about to go into free agency, that looks really bad. Players notice that kind of stuff. Gomez doesn't have the same leg to stand on because he's terrible.
Maybe, maybe not. I do firmly believe that wins and losses matter now even if they're eliminated. They still need to develop a winning culture. This isn't 2012. They haven't had enough success to say 'hey we can just scrap the next 50 games and just reload'.
Valbuena should not impact Reed or Bregman outside of maybe where on the field they are playing (or DH). To bench Valbuena, we are talking about White or Tucker.
Agree 1000%. Even now, only 4 games out of the WC, and they've perceived to have set off enough white flags that everybody here is now discussing options like calling up all the flotsam like in 2012-2014 to see what sticks. There is no more experimentation. They have a core. They need to build around said core and continue to try and get better. When they were good from May-July, it was because guys like Valbuena and even Gomez (for 2-3 weeks) started playing closer to expectation. They've been bad these last 2 weeks because they've lost every other experienced MLB hitter not named Springer/Altuve/Correa.
Agree with everything except the no more experimentation (granted, we could have different views on what constitutes experimentation). I'm fine with a little more experimentation in who plays in the OF besides Springer.
Wins and loses matter, sure. But figuring out what prospects are ready to contribute I think matters more. Besides Springer/Altuve/Correa, we are in 2012-14 from a positional player point of view. The trade deadline moves (or lack of) seem to demonstrate the brass isnt sure how to fix things. Things are still experimental until we know what we got beyond those three. Can anyone right now say which farm hands will stick? What their true worth is? How can we go sign FA's to fill holes when we are not sure what holes will be filled with homegrown talent and which will not? Do we simply guess? Do we just sign the best available FA's we can get this winter and hope it all works out?
Reed and Bregman are going to get their playing time. I don't think anyone in the FO or fandom thinks otherwise. Figuring out what Tucker, White, and Kemp are all about isn't a big deal. For the 2nd tier guys I'm perfectly fine with a 'play your way onto the team' attitude. The impetus is more on them to prove something in their limited action than the FO to give them a prolonged look. If Tucker sucks in a limited showing, he doesn't need more time. The club needs to go out and sign a back-up OFer who can hit .260/.270.
Like Singleton showed in a ongoing showing? I at least partially agree with you philosophically. But looking at how the brass has acted in the last two years, they seem a little slow to let guys go who have had short term exposure to the majors and failed, and spending big bucks for FA's. That may suddenly change this winter, but it certainly wasn't the prevailing mindset as recently as last week at the trade deadline.
Lack of moves only shows Astros were unwilling to trade based on what other teams wanted. On farm hands, 150 ABs isn't going to change the Astros view much one way or the other on White and as such, won't affect FA signings in the offseason. Astros are going to get the best FAs they can in offseason. If the young guys do well, it is better having too much talent than not enough. Reed and Bregman are going to play a lot this season or prove they can't be counted on. The only known hole is catcher. Astros don't have an advanced catching prospect. Every where else. Astros can slide people around considering they have guys that can play the hard defensive positions (CF, SS).
