This is one of the more reasonable trade proposals posted here, but I agree that Miller for Odom and #8 makes more sense. Cleveland doesn't need and probably won't want more than two picks. Unless they particularly want Kenny (and I recall hearing on this board some teams mentioned that specifically have called for Kenny), I don't see any reason why the Rockets would be involved.
The only reason I can give for the Cavs not wanting Odom is the same reason that they might want to trade Andre. Odom will be asking for a big pay day. one other thing. After the Nets took three first round picks last year and went all the way to the finals, other teams including the Cavs might find it more appealing to take extra first round picks.
The objections are reasonable, but they're not a slam dunk either. This is a reasonable trade, which forces an answer of YES to the question of "COULD we end up with both Ming and Odom without giving up Griff, Cat, or Francis?" Are we likely to, NO. Could we: YES. It's hard to get two teams to actually agree on their relative needs and the relative values of the players involved unless they are in a situation where they virtually have no choice (one reason sign and trades are so popular lately), let alone three. So, this isn't likely, but it is FAR from unreasonable. Wonder what Rox, Clips, and Cleveland management would think about this? Good post, Crash.
EXACTLY! The Cavs would get a ton of young talent to build on and yet they would not be very good next season which would get them in the LeBron James lottery. They might not even use all of those picks. Suppose they use a few to trade UP to get a certain player! I hear the Grizzlies are looking to trade down. As an aside, the Cavs organization are up for sale and I hear they don't want to take on much salary (large contracts etc). Perhaps "rookie" scaled contracts versus veteran contracts are attractive to the organization or perhaps potential buyers of the Cavs would like the idea of starting over with a bunch of young talent to build off of. Cavs would give up Miller but then would get a HUGE jump start on the rebuilding process with young talent and at the same time would probably be in the lottery again next year with a chance at James. Great trade idea. This is the best trade idea I have seen where each team would get everything they want! Great work!! Chris
This trade proposal makes sense in some ways, but a couple of things make me wonder. A Clippers fan had done a full cap analysis on real gm for the next four years as a basis for trading up to the #1 overall pick. The big attraction was that they would get a PG in Jay Williams who is NBA ready but also is on a rookie scale contract for the next 4 years or so. He was showing that they would be able to re-sign their current core of players (Brand, Miles and Kandi) without hitting the luxury cap threshhold which is something Sterling definitely would not do. Ofcourse, its debatable whether or not they re-sign Kandi, but he was assuming they would. Signing Miller and Brand to the max and re-signing Kandi would take up roughly 28 mil in payroll and escalate among three players. I could see the Cavs doing this possibly. However, it completely depends on what they are looking for in return for Miller. If they want to clean house and start over, then this probably a very intelligent way to do it. Those 4 rookies would get a whole lot of PT and touches next season while they would probably lose 60 games. Thus, they would in a position to get Lebron James if the balls bounce correctly.
MManal, I felt just as you did until I read where the Clipps tried to make a run at Baron Davis. Also the Clipps get Collier in the deal and that can add insurance in case Kandi does not resign. He is certainly not starting material but he at least gives them a true 7 footer with a big body to place beside Brand for a year.
Crash, I dont know if Baron Davis and Andre Miller count equal in Elgin Baylor's eyes. It is a fact that at draft time, Elgin wanted Baron and Baron wanted the Clipps. If my memory serves me correctly, Davis refused to work out with the Hornets b/c he wanted to be the guy that would re-juvenate the Clipps. Considering his UCLA ties, his explosive game, etc. Elgin wanted him badly if I remember correctly. The Hornets ofcourse decided they would take Davis in any case. Its pretty obvious that based on the history and Elgin's views on Davis that he thinks of him as a franchise type PG. There is no doubt they would give Baron the max and figure out what to do with the rest. Baron Davis would be a player the Clipps would be willing to trade a large amount for and sign for the max; I am not so sure they view Andre Miller in the same light. For the record, if this were me I would make the deal and get Andre Miller then re-sign him to the max. I am a huge fan of Miller's game as he has the true PG mentality that makes players around him better. I think its ridiculous that he can average 11 APG on a team like Cleveland. If he had any semblance of talent around him, the Cavs would be a playoff team imo. However, I am not sure NBA teams view him the same way I do.
Wow Crash, great trade thread. I usually can't stand trade threads because they usually don't make sense talent wise, are biased toward one team, or don't make sense cap wise. I almost didn't read this thread, but now I'm glad I did.
MManal, I thought about that and even wondered why the Clipps had not contacted the Cavs just to see what the interest level was. Maybe you are on to something. Still I would think if the proposal was made that Baylor would have to take a serious look at Andre and consider his talents before declining the offer. I think that the intelegent way that Miller aproaches the game would be perfect for the young and sometimes error prone Clippers.
MManal- I have a spreadsheet built with salaries out to the 2005 season. Before I make alot of work for myself, I want to get your opinion on something. Do you agree with the following: 1) Donald Sterling wants to win without exceeding the salary cap. 2) DS will have to Max Brand and that will be ~ $11m for the 2004 season. 3) The Clipps have Kandi's Full Bird Rights and only the Wiz or Bulls could possibly (but not likely) outbid the Clipps. 4) Kandi will be resigned for about $7m-8m for the coming season. 5) There is NO WC playoff team that does not have at least 2 players exceeding $10m (approximate Max for Brands and Millers draft group). 6) Miles and Q are not a salary problems for 3 more seasons. Now, given that DS wants to be competitive, it follows that 2 of his players will have to be "Maxed". That's $22 for Brand and Miller plus $8m for Kandi two seasons from now. $30m for your top 3 players' salaries is pretty reasonable by todays standards. If we have some general agreement, I will finish out the Clipps salary projections.
And while we are talking about salaries...how about the Rockets end of things? Let's say this deal happened and we got Odom. What kind of salaries do we see going to these guys once their contracts are up? Francis Odom Griffin Ming Both Francis' and Odom's would be up at the same time. And then a few years later Griffin's would be up and then Ming's. Francis will be maxed out for sure. But where do the other players stand / or where do you think the other players will stand come time for them to get their big contracts? Chris
Sterling does not want to exceed the salary cap level. The Rockets are already over the cap and are only concerned with if and when the Luxury Tax kicks in and at what level it will kick in. Big difference between these two numbers - about $12m.
Both Miles and Q are qualifying offer FA's for the 2004-2005 season and the Clipps have Full Bird Rights for both. Miles' salary based upon Rookie Scale will be $5,419,480 and Q's $2,562,338. Unless the MCE rises substantial or there are alot of teams with cap room, Sterling may have the ability to resign Miles and Q without necessarily maxing them. However, the true origin of my comment is this - since Miles and Q are not FA's until 2004, the Clipps will have two full seasons of Brand, Miller, and Kandi to determine if they can win and put people in the seats. If so, then the $ being generated by 2004-2005 is easily within the $ figures above needed to outbid other teams for Miles and Q. Kind of obscure thinking, but if Sterling is tempted to try low-budget winning Miles and Q are not immediate concerns.
crash - I assume you want some salary projections? I can do some quick ball parks analysis. I will update shortly. Be forewarned that I don't know how to put in the HTML tags to lineup columns.
GATER, The part Im not understanding is how you say Kandi wont be a salary concern for 2 more seasons even though he'd be signed to 8 mil this offseason? "plus $8m for Kandi two seasons from now." That doesnt make sense.... I dont think the way it works is that you play out all five yrs under the rookie scale and then the new contract kicks in. Aelliott or some capologist can you confirm? Also, I dont see your whole premise of playing the waiting game like that with Darius Miles. Just like Elgin Baylor loves Baron Davis, he is a huge Darius Miles guy. The kid has a TON of potential in this league that folks will see unfold next year with an increased role and more PT. The questions for me are these... Do the Clippers view Andre Miller in such a way that they would be willing to deal serious talent for AND pay him the max? Would they be willing to give him the max at the expense of playing the waiting game on a player like Miles? Does Elgin Baylor even think Andre Miller has a brighter future in this league than Miles? The whole premise of this argument is that Elgin Baylor views Andre Miller in a similar light to Baron Davis and thinks he's worth the max. Is this the case?
"B Crash Crad": I'll tell you what ... you do a fine decent job of making your case and rationalizing your opinion. I don't always agree but it's a pleasure to read your posts,man.
Thanks Pops, I always look forward to your posts. BTW, can you give us any inside scoop on the Rockets actuall plans for the #15 pick? That one actually has more intrigue to me now that it seems Yao may be in the bank.
