well this list is not even remotely inspiring... http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-11-12 I think I just made myself more depressed... looks like a trade it is....
I wouldnt disagree with that as long as we get high draft picks. Maybe during the draft we consider these moves and get into the top 10? Thats what we really need to do. Get into the top 5 of the draft by trading away one of these guys after the year is over to the top 5 draft teams for theplayer we really want. Than draft two players in next years draft.
This. My article last month (where the ~$10.3 million figure came from) was more for illustration purposes only IF the exact same salary cap was in place for next year (an extremely huge "if"). With a new CBA looming, no one on earth (David Stern included) knows for sure how the salary cap system will work next season. Honestly, Morey and crew have their work cut out for them IF (again, just an "if") they want to rebuild on the fly by dumping Yao and creating cap space. It could not have come in a worse year. They would be basically "flying blind" for the next 6-12 months. I'm swamped at work, but I'll check back later and maybe crunch some numbers if you want to see what the Rockets would be facing based on THIS year's cap.
The thing about trading Scola this year is that he is a BYC player. Only half is salary is counted outgoing (Rockets) but his full salary is counted incoming (hypothetically the Nets). So you have to find a team that is under cap enough to absorb his full 7.775MM contract while only sending half his salary back in a trade.
correct me if im wrong (and when you have time), but i don't see why its so bad to dump salary before the new CBA. if the rockets do that, they will be one of the first teams to adjust, thus making it easier for them to maneuver going forward. other teams will have long term, expensive contracts to honor while the rockets will have draft picks and new contracts which were signed under the new CBA (probably cheaper / shorter). seems like this would benefit the rockets.
Didn't say I'd do it but also not something to completely rule out. If they want to have as much cap room as possible then it makes sense but if they rather have the asset to trade later on or just keep around then obviously they or I wouldn't do it.
I'm just guessing here, but if the new CBA takes the NBA towards a harder cap, I think there will be a adjustment period for teams over the cap to get rid of excess salary. If that period is longer rather than shorter, it will be pretty difficult to compete. Nobody will opt out of their contracts early, and the top teams have a lot of talent that the "gutted" teams can't get their hands on. OTOH, If the adjustment period is shorter (like, I guess, NHL after 2005?), then that could really be beneficial for us.
For starters, let's agree on something. By definition, an expiring contract does not count as a "salary dump". It's gone one way or another. From that, we can conclude that Yao, Battier, Jeffries and Hayes would not qualify as a "salary dump". Further, any player that has a team option functions the same as an expiring contract. The Rockets have full discretion on bringing that player back for the 2011-12 season. You now have eliminated Hill, Lee and Budinger. Further still are the contracts of Patterson and Terrence Williams. Can we please agree for practical purposes that their combined $4.4M would not qualify as a "salary dump"? At least not to the extent that it puts a significant FA in play for 2011-12? In a "gray area" would be Aaron Brooks. Since there is no CBA, it is IMHO not possible to predict what a "Qualifying Offer" would amount to. If there is a hard cap, many teams will be strapped for money. That benefits the Rockets as there may not be a bidding war for Brooks. So IMHO we've basically concluded that those 10 players would not qualify as enough salary dump to become big FA players in either the current CBA or a potentential hard cap CBA. So, what's left? Brad Miller - $4.8M Kyle Lowery - $5.8M Luis Scola - $8.6M Kevin Martin - $12M IMHO, if you want to be be FA players in 2011 or 2012, you have to take in expiring contracts for those players. And given how much the current roster depends on Scola and Martin, any dump of those 2 would surely bring an evil eye from Stern. It would almost signify a full-blown tank job prior to a new CBA. It would get noticed.
I really hope we don't go into panic mode. I really am very happy with many of our players. I know the results have not been what we had all hoped for, but I think we have a lot of young players that are improving rapidly. We don't even know how adding players like Patterson and Williams will impact the team, and we have Brooks back in another week or so. If the rockets could acquire a big man in the middle to play defense and rebound, I think we would be winning a lot of games. During the late 80's and early 90's the rockets had a lot of talent, but were a very average team, and this was with a true superstar at the center position. The rockets continued to tweak the roster and made a coaching change by promoting Rudy and suddenly all the pieces fell into place. Things can change in a hurry, and if some of our young players blossom into star players, we could have a very good team. Lets not go into panic mode just because we are disappointed about losing Yao, and we are struggling a bit right now.
First off, I love that you have started posting more frequently. I've always enjoyed your post in the past and noticed a decline in your participation. Second.. I could give a flying rat's @ss what Stern thinks. Of course, I'd never trade Martin or Scola solely for an expiring contract -- I'd want an unprotected 1st rounder included in any deal for them. I'd love for them to pull off a similar trade as the Sonics did when dealing Ray Allen (5th pick + expirings for him). I don't think Martin is worth the #5th pick by himself, but hopefully with our lottery pick (likely late lottery) + Martin we could move up to a Top 5 pick in the draft.
GATER touches on it above, but there really isn't a need to "dump" salary right now due to Yao's contract expiring at the end of the year. What may be the biggest key to rebuilding post-Yao (again, IF that's what the Rockets decide to do) is what the new CBA says about sign-and-trades, trade exceptions and Bird rights. Those two items will determine whether the Rockets could conceivably sign-and-trade Yao to another team in exchange for assets: either for draft considerations and a huge trade exception, or for a couple of players. If the new CBA sets a hard salary cap, then the huge trade exception that the Rockets could have generated in a Yao sign-and-trade under the current CBA would be of no use to them. If sign-and-trades are prohibited (which I doubt will happen), that further limits the Rockets' flexibility. And having Yao's Bird rights makes keeping him somewhat more palatable than certain alternatives. I highly doubt that the new CBA will fail to carry over the concept of Bird rights. But there is not a desperate need to "dump" Yao now. It's no secret that he is injured and injury prone. They would get little of value for him right now, at least not compared to what they could possibly get when he is healed (and if there is some clarification in Yao's favor on the risk of such injury recurring). Better to take their chances holding onto Yao during this season, then hope that the new CBA allows for them to either (a) exceed the salary cap to re-sign him and/or (b) sign-and-trade him, either for players or for picks and a trade exception.
FYI, because they are all first round picks going into their second or third seasons under their rookie scale contracts, Courtney Lee, Jordan Hill and Terrence Williams have all ALREADY had their 2011-12 team options picked up. The Rockets only have yet-unexercised team options for next year on Chase Budinger and Ish Smith. Also, while you are correct about not knowing what impact Brooks will have on next year's cap under the new CBA before he signs a new contract, at least under the current CBA, his "cap hold" would determine how he counts against the team's cap, not his qualifying offer. The current CBA already set his qualifying offer. It's $2,976,636. The Rockets need to extend it to him BEFORE the current CBA expires. His cap hold, at least under the current CBA, is approximately $6.05 million. Nice post otherwise, though.
can we even trade yao when he's injured and out for who knows how long? doesn't he have to pass a physical?
The salary cap figures I promised (based on figures from shamsports.com): The Rockets' total team salary (with the addition of Terrence Williams and the subtraction of Jermaine Taylor) now stands at $73,753,370. That puts Les and company $3,446,370 ABOVE the luxury tax threshold. These figures could possibly come down ever-so-slightly if Ish Smith is waived prior to January 10 (but I think a lot depends on what his contract says). Assuming that: --No further roster moves are made between now and July 1; --The Rockets exercise team options on Chase Budinger and Ish Smith; --The cap hold on Aaron Brooks remains at ~$6.05M and the Rockets want to keep him; and --The Rockets end up with the #12 overall pick in the draft and keep it (just a guess based on their play thus far) then You're looking at total team salary commitments of about $49.9 million. Even based on this year's salary cap ($58.044M), that only leaves about $8.15M in cap room. That figure will likely be lower, with the new CBA probably lowering the salary cap. Like I said, TOUGH decisions next summer. Do you dump all of your free agents (except Brooks) and use that cap space? Or do you keep one or more of Yao, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes and Jared Jeffries and limit yourself to improvements via trade and the draft? Knowing Morey, I'm guessing the latter. But so much depends on what the new CBA allows. (Phew. Now I'm caught up.)
^^^Point of Clarification: Please realize that I am using somewhat rigid figures when I do my "salary cap analysis". But in reality, there is so much more fluidity to cap management. Trades and other roster moves are made all the time. Circumstances change. Hence, the "available cap room" numbers I throw out there should be taken with a grain of salt. That said, if you are thinking that Morey can just wave his magic wand and create as much cap room as he wants, you probably need to temper your expectations.
