A Statistical Comparison: Yao, Hakeem, Moses, and Ralph.

Ralph and Hakeem played on the same teams along with Robert Reid, Rodney McRae, etc. Moses had Calvin, Rudy T., Mike Newlin and others to handle the scoring load.

Plus, you have to remember that those teams averaged a much higher number of shot attempts per game and higher points-per-game averages.

As someone who watched all four, my perspective on it is this...

• Yao's basketball skills are greater than Hakeem and Moses, but on par with Sampson who could handle the ball like a guard depsite being 7'4".
• Yao's physical skills are inferior to Hakeem and Moses but he is, IMO, more durable than Sampson was even when he entered the league.
• For me, the key element for big men is assertiveness around the basket. In this category, Yao is well below Sampson who himself was well below Olajuwon and Malone.

I think that you see things in Yao that are partly personality, partly non-NBA training, partly cultural. I think he certainly has the basketball talent and ability to be a great scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. But, for him to be a dominant player, he'll also need to gain physical strength and assert himself around the basket.

You knew that when Malone was going for a rebound, he was getting it. If you got near him, you were in deep trouble. When Hakeem got the ball down on the block, he'd beat you even if you triple teamed him and, chances are, you'd get an elbow in the jaw to boot. With Sampson, he agressively pursued blocked shots and would take guys MUCH smaller off the dribble.

None of them could shoot or pass like Yao can now. But, for a center to be dominant in the NBA, he must have significant presence in the paint. If Yao adds this element, he will have a shot at ranking among the greats of this game.

 

To sum it up, give him atleast 15 FGA attempts a game and you'll see a ton of production. Some of the reasons for his lack of FGA are lack of the ball being dumped down low enough when he establishes position. Other times he'll frustrate me when they do make a good pass into him when he's 5-10 feet away from the basket and will opt to kick the ball back out for a 3 pointer from one of our perimeter guys, when it's obvious he had a high % shot right there for the taking. Other times he'll have a slow start and go 1-6 while being aggressive and will play tentative with his shot selection for the rest of the game. And other times he simply doesn't play aggressive enough on offensive boards to earn his own shots without the need to have the ball passed into him. An ability true low post threats possess that makes them so tough. Shaq especially excels at that when he wants to. If he's not getting the ball enough, he'll bang in the paint grab boards and just jam it all night. Yao's just as capable despite being slow footed, and less explosive when jumping up for boards. Again something he'll pick up on in being aggressive. I'd absolutely grin from ear to ear if I could just watch him pull a Barkley grab a board and swing his body with his elbows out wildly at any fool trying to invade his space on the boards. He may get an offensive foul for it, but they'll respect him for the rest of the night. No one wants an elbow to the face, especially one that's swinging violently in defense.

 

first, SamCassell made the point i was going to make. yao is very selective. while that may seem good, when you're supposed to be carrying the offense, you can't afford to do that all the time. if everyone got to be really really selective and make their % look good, hardly anyone would ever take a shot. sometimes you just have to step up and take the tough turnaround or the 15' with a guy in your face b/c you still have a better chance at getting a clean look then if you just throw it out to a teammate and expect them to do it for you. that's something i expect hakeem and the others did more often.

this was early in the season so i have no idea where it stands now, but in Clutch's interesting stats thread, i think when yao shot 15 or more times, his fg% was something like 41.4%. it decreased a ton.

this is true, but it seems like there was less concentration of scoring. it seems like most everyone could hit a jump shot and offenses were often times like the mavs. not so much for the all out running but the fact that the first fairly open shot was taken. when you do that, it means your stars won't necessarily touch the ball on every possession like very often happens now. i remember looking up the season jordan scored 37 ppg, the next highest was wilkins at 29, which is pretty much what the 2nd leading scorer in the league would do these days (kobe had 30 last year). so while scoring was way higher, the correlation b/t scoring by focal points of the offense doesn't seem to follow the same trend.

the concentration of scoring also probably stemmed from slower offenses and better defenses. with D's being much tighter and more focused now, you can't just toss the ball around the perimeter and expect someone to have a good look. someone has to break the defense down. thus, in a halfcourt offense, giving your best guy the ball all the time to either get the best shot on an individual basis or to give you the best chance to break down the defense and then create an easy shot makes the most sense. with slower offenses, this makes halfcourt sets more prevalent and helps the stars even more.

 

I'll sum up the entire post:

Stats are for losers.

 

Wow... We have alot of professors posting in this thread

 

Thats true, it did decrease only because Yao was doing something he was uncomfortable with. His FG% is so high because he IS so selective and comfortable taking the shots he takes. However, the only way Yao will learn to score and become comfortable is by taking his share by experience... IN a way, Van Gundy and Cuttino and Stevie need to forcefeed Yao and collectively say "You're going to force the situation every so often or else"

Yao will be dominant one day, whether its by his schedule (3-4 years down the line) or by VG, SF, and Cat's (whenever they choose)

Stuart

 

His FG% may of decreased, but the Rockets also have a much better record when he gets atleast 15 FGA a game. I think the Rockets are something like 9-1.

 

The first half of MacBeth's post is interesting. As Gater pointed out, the per 48 stats are not as misleading as some suggest.

The second half is just showing that Yao has a better fg% than the others. It does not address why his fga number is so low. I think Jeff's take sums it up well.

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Here's some interesting numbers concerning our leading scorers, Francis and Yao. Their scoring averages are very close. The following is our records when they score above or below their averages:

When Francis scores higher than his average, we are 14-8.

When Francis scores lower than his average, we are 12-12.

When Yao scores higher than his average, we are 15-5.

When Yao scores lower than his average, we are 11-15.

When both score higher than their respected averages in the same game, we are 8-3.

When both score lower than their averages, we are 5-10.


It's expected that when both of them score well, we win most of the time and vice versa. But individually, Yao's scoring seems to have somewhat more impact than Francis's in terms of winning games.

 

i know we had a huge winning % with yao shooting more than 15 shots, i just was saying his % crashed when he got into the upper reaches of field goal attempts. of course, in that thread, i think the rockets were 3-1 when steve had 7 turnovers or more, but just like i don't want steve having 7 turnovers, i don't want yao shooting 41%.

 

Per 48 min. Stats means absolutely nothing...

That's all I have to say.

 

actually i think they mean how much of a stat you would earn during a 48 minute period on the court at your current pace.

 

Actually it means "stats used when players can't produce enough numbers under normal game minutes to warrant any meaningful consideration against their peers"

 

Yao needs be fit enough to play 40+ minutes pg on a consistent basis to be compared with the other greats.

 

Great thread, MacBeth. I'm a stat head, so I love this stuff.

We can quibble over the technicalities, but I think the final answer can be deducted pretty easily: Despite not even being the full-time first option for his team, Yao's numbers project him to be in the same class as Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone. That's astounding.

 

The problem is that with the dazzling array of offensive moves, a jump shot that goes out to almost the three point line, a 7'6 frame and a number of respected jumpshooters to limit double teams, YAO should be averaging more that 15 points a game.


I understand the zone will stifle many dominant big men, but Hakeem routinely took it up over double and triple teams.


Macbeth,

I think the factor that separated Moses, Hakeem and even Sampson had to a lesser extent was that mental strength and dominant personality.

Hakeem would call for the ball and you would get slapped if you didn't give it to him. Many players were scared of him. He would rebound with that tenacity as well. If you knocked him down and undercut him the way guys do to Yao, he would give you an elbow and next time you would know better.

Yao routinely gets knocked to the floor, fouled extremely hard and then will defend the other player saying he was "Guarding his basket". Everyone remembers the older, more mature Dream that spun/faked/faded his shots, but not the younger, volatile Akeem that would kick-ass routinely.

Just one time I want to see Yao stand up and get in someone's face after then foul him hard. I want him to Mutombo his elbows on occasion so some point guard isn't even trying to steal the ball from him. What I want is a personality that wants and demands the ball. Yao may still be not as forceful b/c he is still relatively new to our culture and our basketball. That is why my sig is so relavent, b/c he can be like that and I think that mindset is what will pave his way to greatness.

 

I think you are aware of it, but I will mention it for perspective...

Hakeem could not be doubled or tripled before he had the ball (old illegal defense rules). In the current NBA zone, Yao can be doubled when he does not have the ball. A minor but signifcant point especially if we're talking the ability to get a good low post entry pass. IOW, there's a difference between a double coming at you and one that has been established before you ever receive the ball. Not making excuses for Yao, but there is a difference.