A "net possessions created" stat (applied to Rockets)

GATER... considering your signature, why would you even look at this thread.

 

Fact: Chuck Hayes IS an extremely valuable player. Thank you proving this durvasa.

 

you're a one-eyed monster.

 

Why is offensive rebounds twice as much as defensive rebounds?
To me, a missed defensive rebound =an offensive rebound by other team = an extra posession for opponent team = one less posession for our team.

They should be considered equally, at least not by a 7:3 margin.

 

This is knid of punishment to good defensive rebounders. I don't think 5 Rafers will get you a lot of defensive rebounds. You still need some good rebounders to get it after all. It is true that defensive rebounds are more of a teamwork, but 7:3 margin seems too large.

 

Huh? Rafer is getting .3 off rebs and 3.0 def rebs, or a 10:1 ratio this year. For his career, he gets .4 to 2.4, or a 6:1 ratio. In other words, he's an even weaker offensive rebounder than the ratio indicates.

In terms of possession creation/extension, .7 to .3 is about right.

 

Too bad there's no measure for fouls drawn. For instance, when Battier draws a charge, its as if the opponent possession didn't exist, and the rockets got the ball twice in a row.

 

It's good to see Hayes getting more credit. The guy does so many things and it really pissed me off to see people writing him off all summer because we picked up Scola. Or better yet the complaining because he doesn't have a great offensive game.

Hayes is the type of guy a Championship team needs. All the guy does is do what he does great and let's other players do the things he can't do. He is more valuable than Battier IMO.

 

How about just possession index or possession usage rating?

 

net_poss_creation = 0.7*orb + 0.3*drb + stl - tov + 0.7*blk - 0.7*missed_FG
- 0.5*OF - 0.3 * F

 

Cool. But it certainly needs some refinement.

1. Why didn't you include drawing charge?

2. A missed fg should be included. But should be weighed much less than a turnover because a fg attempt has the potential to score while a TO does not.

Just my .02

 

durvasa,

I like yours the way it is, if you define it as the measure of how many possessions that player has provided for your team outside the regular flow of the game.

I think missed/made fgs and dreb are part of the regular back/forth flow and shouldn't be counted. Anything that disrupts that flow should be (steal, TO, off reb, etc).

Blocked shots are tricky because it depends on who gets possession after that. Block+grab (like turbo blocks in nba street) are equivalent to a steal. Blocked shots that go to a teammate are equivalent to a missed fg + defensive rebound. A blocked shot that goes out of bounds is equivalent to nothing, just wasted time on shot clock.

Question: if yao blocks kobe's shot, and mcgrady comes up with it, is mcgrady credited with the steal? Is that like two players getting 0.5 sacks each in football?

if 82games does keep track of charges taken then it'd be great to add to your formula somehow.

I really like your idea and believe it is a useful stat. Whatever the formula ends up becoming, make sure it matches your definition.