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A few interesting observations:

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jtr, Jan 12, 2014.

  1. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    I have solved the riddle "Why do the Rockets have 369 fewer shots than their opponents this season".

    Looking as basic stats we observe the following per game box score:

    [​IMG]

    The Rockets are currently -105 in turnovers, - 59 in offensive rebounds, -50 in steals, and +145 in two shot trips to the free throw line. This adds up to 363 fewer shots than their opponents. kuku you owe me a rep.

    Does Morey read Clutch Fans?

    Yes Morey posts on CF. He has responded to two of my posts and looking back at his history he limits his posts to stats based threads. Don't bother asking for his user name. I won't be providing it.

    Who is the best player on the Rockets roster?

    Right now it is Harden, however it would not surprise me at all if Howard overtakes Harden in the next few months. The entry passes have improved. If you think back 3 years ago there was significant debate as to whether Howard or James was the best player in the NBA. Note: I have no opinion on the subject.

    Will the injury bug continue to affect the Rockets?

    Major injuries begets injury. Just look at WB, Rose and Kobe. So, while I have not run the numbers, IMHO the Rockets will probably be healthier as the season wears on. It seems to be small sprains and tweaks that are affecting the ROckets. Except for Asik. Who knows?

    How does McHale and his staff rate as coaches?

    The most controversial question. I have shown that during this season the team coming out of offensive time outs scores at an above average rate. I have also shown that calling time outs late in the game is counterproductive because the defense actually benefits more from a timeout than the offense. So don't give me your shallow opinion on the subject. Just go by the statistical analysis. The roster is obviously happy with the coaches. Anything more is entirely supposition and not based on any fact. OK. Go ahead and whine and cry people. You have no argument other than your damned opinion. Opinions mean nothing.

    Should we be surprised at Howard's awful FT shooting?

    Only if you just started paying attention to the NBA. He is around his career average for FT%. Don't hold your breath for any improvement.

    How did Morey do this off season filling in roster spots?

    Morey, under the current CBA, had no money to spend. If a player was not willing to sign for the vet minimum Morey could not sign them. OK Morey had one small $2.1M option, but it was obviously not large enough for the Rockets to spend the money on any takers.
     
    7 people like this.
  2. Knightrogen

    Knightrogen Member

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    Interesting...

    So Chandler is back. Waiting for Asik to be back soon. Otherwise I think he should be traded.
     
  3. LosPollosHermanos

    LosPollosHermanos Houston only fan
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  4. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    I'm a little confused as to why you think turnovers and steals are separate categories. In this context, steals are part of turnovers.
     
  5. oakdogg

    oakdogg Contributing Member

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    "Opinions mean nothing." Lots of this is opinion. The stats you picked as supporting McHale as a good coach are opinions. A lot of people wouldn't value those as the most important items to judge coaches.
     
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  6. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Because they are listed as separate categories at stats.nba.com. And sir, you may have a good point.
     
  7. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Believe me the X's and O's out of time outs is not an opinion. I have posted statistically significant data showing that McHale is performing well. And I neither see nor hear of any information that McHale is not respected and admired by the players. And what else did I assert?
     
  8. try

    try Member

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    The so-called team rebounds aren't included in the "normal" rebounding categories. That might be the missing link in the puzzle. I assume that the Rockets' opponents get more of these because the number might correlate with the amount of three point attempts (long jumpers are more likely to go out of bounds) and the Rockets shoot more threes.
     
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    You can't count both TO differential and Steal differential, since a steal is a turnover. Also you'll need to somehow get blocks that return to the opponent for another FGA in there. Which you can't do from a boxscore.

    But, you're close enough. I don't think a boxscore can get you to exact.
     
  10. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Do you know where I can access that information? I would find it important. I too have wondered how they assign "tip" rebounding in box scores. Thanks.
     
  11. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    You are of course exactly right. It was pointed out to me a couple of posts ago. I do appreciate your careful reading of my post. Do you have any sources for possessions after a block? Thanks.

    I did manage to remove the and-1 free throws from the data. I could not figure out how to remove the technical foul shots from the data.
     
  12. try

    try Member

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    The number doesn't show up in the "main" box score as it can't be accredited to a specific player. You can see the number under the team's box scores on nba.com, I don't know if the season numbers are added up anywhere, so you might have to check each box score to get the exact numbers.

    If a player gains control of the ball after a block, he's credited a rebound, so that's not a problem. If a block goes out of bounds, it is a team rebound.
     
  13. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    Aren't we also the worst team defensively out of timeouts? I'm actually sort of curious what they value on coaching staff, is the timeout production and likeability really the be all and end all? Wouldn't the timing of timeouts matter? From what I've seen the timing of pace shifts seem to be the key (Spoelstra for example seems the best in the nba at this one), it'd be hard to gauge, but the amount of run shifts (which would probably need a huge sample size) strike me as a key part there.
     
  14. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    edit: try explained it.

    This is right. I was wrong. Everyone missed FGA (including blocks) must have an associated rebound. So if a player doesn't get credit, it is a team rebound.
     
    #14 heypartner, Jan 12, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2014
  15. SF3isBack!!

    SF3isBack!! Member

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    I would like to ask an honest question because I like numbers and stats myself, however, data is only good if it answers the question that you want to ask.

    Mchale stated in a quote that he is not a X's and O's guy, he said he "flys by the seat of his pants". It was also said by certain players that he would hand the clipboard to his assistant coaches. Given those two facts, how can you be so sure that Mchale is "performing well" with X' and O's if you don't know exactly what each coach did during each timeout called? (For instance some coaches call timeouts for injuries, some to give motivational speeches or some just to let their players rest, sometimes coaches are out etc. etc.)
     
  16. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Yeah, defensively the Rockets have had significant problems after timeouts. But for the life of me, I cannot figure out how to blame the coaching staff for this problem. These players have been instructed for their entire organized basketball life to make sure that every opponent is tagged on an in bounds play. Go figure.

    Respect and admiration of a head coach must certainly be at the top of every GM's list when it comes to hiring or retaining a head coach. The term "losing the locker room" is just double speak for a head coach being ignored by his roster. A sure sign of imminent termination. McHale ranks very high in this category. The roster seems to love him as a coach.

    Timing of time outs is obviously important. But I cannot get that data without watching hundreds of NBA games. Morey may have that data, and by extension McHale, but I doubt if.
     
  17. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    on second thought, while blocks are accounted for in the Off Reb differential, it would be interesting for teams with big shot blockers to be able to asterisk the opponent Off Rebounds due to blocks. It kinda unfairly makes it look like the opp is outrebounding us.
     
  18. dmoneybangbang

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    Thanks for the info.

    On your point about Howard, that's the sad part. If he could really work on his FT shooting and get to 70% that would push him back to elite status. I'm glad he is improving his post game (and he should) but with the amount of FTs he shoots he shoots...... He'd be unstoppable if he could hit them at a good clip.
     
  19. jtr

    jtr Contributing Member

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    Good questions. I personally do not believe that Morey hired McHale to be an X's and O's coach. Les seems to have no budget restraints on the coaching staff salaries. The Rockets hire the best assistant coaches on the market. If McHale handed the clip board over to an assistant coach on every time out I would be fine.

    IMHO what was McHale hired to accomplish as a head coach? My remembrance of the hiring was that Mchale was termed a "leader of men". He seems to have accomplished that goal well. He is liked and respected by his staff and the players. Mchale was hired to be a delegater. McHale is the consummate delegater. Morey does overall team strategy. The assistant coaches sometimes take the clipboard during time outs. McHale does not have a "my way or the highway" attitude. McHale was implicitly hired as the face of the franchise. He has acquitted himself well in that role.

    Basically McHale is a "by committee" advocate. A company man. I am confident in McHale's decisions because I believe that they originate not from some egocentric man, but from the organization as a whole. If the decision fails, then at least it was a group decision.
     
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  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/team-rebounds-per-game

    http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/opponent-team-rebounds-per-game

    It doesn't distinguish team rebounds on the offensive side, though. But, from this, we get 10.1 team rebounds and our opponent gets 9.4. So we're about +27 on the season. But assuming the ORB% applies the same for team rebounds, we get 2.45 offensive team rebounds a game and our opponent gets 2.8 offensive rebounds.

    Teams aren't going to get the exact same number of possessions as their opponent, just really close. When I tally it up and estimate possessions for the Rockets and their opponent (using the formula .976*(FGA+0.44*FTA+TOV-ORB)), it comes to 3637 vs 3694. That's ignoring team rebounds. So based on that, we're getting about 1.5 less possessions per game. If our opponents get more team offensive rebounds than us, that that differential reduces some.
     
    #20 durvasa, Jan 12, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2014
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