A breakdown of ALL Playoff scenarios

The Jazz are getting +6 and Lakers -6 in LA, thats not very comforting. Everything will hinge on how long Phil Jackson keeps his horses in the game, they have nothing to play.

 

the laker will play shut up ALL their doubters.. if they tank, people might say they afraid of the jazz..

 

If I were Phil I'd want more practice incorporating Bynum back in and getting back his groove with the rest of the starters.

I hope they blow Jazz out so bad through the first 3 quarters they can just play scrubs in the 4th!

 

i dont know what all the fuss is about for this jazzhole laker game.

i'm telling you guys that the rockets aren't even thinking about it. they're thinking about winning tomorrow and taking the division title.

 

Thanks for the thread.

According to this, if every game's outcome is 50/50. Then the probabilities are :

Hornets 37.5%
Blazers 25.0%
Mavericks 12.5%
Spurs 12.5%
Jazz 12.5%

Compared with the simulation thread by BigBigRed.

His numbers are :

Blazers 36.2%
Hornets 24.2%
Mavericks 23.4%
Spurs 11.4%
Jazz 4.8%

 

First of all, thanks Cannonball for his breakdown of the scenarios. Here I used his breakdown scenarios and put them into different groups based upon the times when the games are played. Lakers will play Jazz tonight. The Houston/Dallas and New Orleans/SAS games will start at the same time, two and a half hours ahead of Denver/Portland game. So I grouped the scenarios firstly by the Lakers/Jazz game, then the Houston/Dallas game. This will allow us to decide after the Lakers/Jazz game, whether we should go full-thurst to win the game against Dallas. Or on the other hands, we can rest our starters and freshen them up for the playoffs.

Group I , Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas
Group II , Lakers beat Utah, Dallas beats Houston
Group III, Utah beats Lakers, Houston beats Dallas
Group IV, Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston

If the Lakers beat Utah tonight, the Rockets should do their best to win Dallas. The win will garantee an HCA. Without the win, there is 1/4 chance the Rockets will lose HCA. But as long as the Lakers win, the Rockets will not matchup with Utah.

If the Lakers lose to Utah tonight, the Rockets might want to think about it before they go 100% thrust. Winning Dallas in this case will also garantee HCA, but there is 50% chance the Rockets will machup with Utah. Losing to Dallas in this case will avoid meeting Utah, but there is 1/4 chance the Rockets will lose HCA.

=========
Scenario group I:

Code:

Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Denver beats Portland.

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]6. New Orleans[/COLOR]
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. San Antonio
5. Portland
[COLOR=Red]6. New Orleans[/COLOR]
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Porland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
[COLOR=Red]2. Houston[/COLOR]
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
6. New Orleans
[COLOR=Red]7. Dallas[/COLOR]
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
[COLOR=Red]2. Houston[/COLOR]
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
6. New Orleans
[COLOR=Red]7. Dallas[/COLOR]
8. Utah

Scenario group II.

Code:

Lakers beat Utah, Dallas beats Houston, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]6. New Orleans[/COLOR]
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]4. Houston[/COLOR]
[COLOR=Red]5. Portland[/COLOR]
6. Dallas
7. New Orleans
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Dallas beats Houston, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. Portland
[COLOR=Red]4. Houston
5. San Antonio[/COLOR]
6. New Orleans
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Lakers beat Utah, Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]4. Portland
5. Houston[/COLOR]
6. Dallas
7. New Orleans
8. Utah

Scenario group III

Code:

Utah beats Lakers, Houston beats Dallas, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]6. New Orleans[/COLOR]
7. Utah
8. Dallas

Utah beats Lakers, Houston beats Dallas, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. San Antonio
5. Portland
[COLOR=Red]6. Utah[/COLOR]
7. New Orleans
8. Dallas

Utah beats Lakers, Houston beats Dallas, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
[COLOR=Red]2. Houston[/COLOR]
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
6. Utah
[COLOR=Red]7. New Orleans[/COLOR]
8. Dallas

Utah beats Lakers, Houston beats Dallas, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Portland beats Denver

1. Lakers
[COLOR=Red]2. Houston[/COLOR]
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
6. New Orleans
[COLOR=Red]7. Utah[/COLOR]
8. Dallas

Scenario group IV.

Code:

Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
[COLOR=Red]3. Houston[/COLOR]
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]6. New Orleans[/COLOR]
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. Portland
[COLOR=Red]4. Houston
5. San Antonio[/COLOR]
6. New Orleans
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Denver beats Portland

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]4. Houston
5. Portland[/COLOR]
6. Dallas
7. Utah
8. New Orleans

Utah beats Lakers, Dallas beats Houston, San Antonio beats New Orleans, Portland beats Denver

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. San Antonio
[COLOR=Red]4. Portland
5. Houston[/COLOR]
6. Dallas
7. Utah
8. New Orleans

 

If Utah beats LA, the probabilities become:
Hornets 37.5%
Blazers 25.0%
Mavericks 0.00%
Spurs 12.5%
Jazz 25.0%

If Utah loses to LA, the probabilities become:
Hornets 37.5%
Blazers 25.0%
Mavericks 25.0%
Spurs 12.5%
Jazz 0.00%

 

Amen, and amen.

If you really enjoy this and all the giddy speculation is your thing, be my guest. Otherwise it just aint worth anything.

 

People normally only check the last post - so better post it once more.

 

I will go for

Lakers beat Utah, Houston beats Dallas, New Orleans beats San Antonio, Denver beats Portland.

1. LA Lakers
2. Denver
3. Houston
4. Portland
5. San Antonio
6. New Orleans
7. Dallas
8. Utah

Brilliant breakdown by Cannonball & RockingRox. Thank you guys

can't wait for the showdown 2moro

 

Here's a helpful chart from John Hollinger.

 

Thanks for the excellent breakdown and now the update, Cannonball.

Ideally, the Rockets will get the #3 seed and play New Orleans. That would leave Denver and Dallas to fight it out in what I'd expect to be an intense series.

Also, Portland is the team with the best chance of knocking out the Lakers in the second round, and they would get their shot as the #4 or 5 seed.

In order for this to happen, though, the Rockets need to get the job done against Dallas.

 

I should add Denver has to beat Portland.

 

there's too many if, but great stat, thank you for the information.

Best chance rocket faces NH or mavs.

 

very easy rooting for wednesday night.

1. rockets
2. blazers
3. hornets

the hornets are our safety net. if the hornets win, the rockets win the division even with a loss, thus the 3rd seed no matter what happens in the rockets/mavs game. still, the rockets control their own destiny. the blazers beating the nuggets is just icing.

 

I read that Morey's magical statistics prospect has a 60% chance of us meeting Portland in the 1st round. Does that mean his stats say we will lose to Dallas ??? If so, fire Morey

 

Scola, Ron...