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8-man rotation? 9-man rotation? 10-man rotation? Predict the minutes distribution

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by cdrive, Jul 20, 2015.

  1. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    We all know McHale historically has liked smaller rotations.... 8 to 9-man rotations...we've even seen 7. But now with a stacked, balanced line-up, will we see a 10-man rotation? How do we keep everyone happy, but give enough minutes for guys to have enough time to find a rhythm?

    I started playing around with the minutes per each position, and my first quick take is below:

    PG
    Beverley 24 minutes
    Lawson 24 minutes
    SG
    Harden 32 minutes
    Thornton 16 minutes
    SF
    Ariza 32 minutes
    Brewer 16 minutes
    PF
    D-Mo 24 minutes
    Terrence Jones 24 minutes
    C
    Howard 28 minutes
    Capela 14 minutes
    D-Mo 6 minutes

    That's a 10-man rotation and I'm not holding my breath that this would be the regular thing. I'm really interested in how other CFers here think the minutes are going to pan out. Realistically I see Thornton struggling for minutes now from either Brewer getting more burn, riding Harden...harder, or from combinations of Bev-Lawson, Bev-Lawson-Harden, Bev-Lawson-Harden-Ariza at the 4. And you can forget about KJ McDaniels getting any burn. Tough to say of course. This is all assuming the roster is pretty much together, which I think is safe to say, but it also assumes some training camp position battles & performances. Maybe Thornton really does rip minutes from Brewer. Or maybe KJ McDaniels really impresses coaches and encourages McHale do run more small ball rotations with Ariza at the 4 (Lawson-Brewer-KJ-Ariza) One more maybe....or maybe Capela and D-Mo continue their beast-like improvement and TJ, despite how good he could be, is struggling to find spot minutes.

    My hope is McHale expands the rotation. We saw what good health coupled with roster consistency did for Golden State. But I'm betting on a 9-man rotation with Thornton on the outside looking in.
     
  2. mag

    mag Contributing Member

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    PG
    Lawson 28 minutes
    Beverley 20 minutes

    SG
    Harden 30 minutes
    Thornton 10 minutes
    KJ 8 minutes

    SF
    Ariza 30 minutes
    Brewer 16 minutes
    KJ 2 minutes

    PF
    D-Mo 24 minutes
    Terrence Jones 24 minutes
    C
    Howard 28 minutes
    Capela 14 minutes
    D-Mo 6 minutes
     
  3. JHarden713

    JHarden713 Member

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    lawson will play 30
     
  4. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    lawson will be averaging atleast 30 mins minimum
     
  5. dharocks

    dharocks Contributing Member

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    On a typical night:

    Lawson 30 / Bev 24
    Harden 34
    Ariza 32 / Brew 22
    D-Mo 24 / TJones 24
    Dwight 32 / Capela 16

    Thornton as injury insurance. Chuckwagon & KJ as situational defenders. JET as cheerleader. The rooks can dominate in RGV.

    STACKED.
     
  6. da_juice

    da_juice Member

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    This is how I would do it.

    Harden- 33
    Beverly- 23
    Lawson- 30
    Thornton-6

    Ariza- 32
    Brewer- 22

    Motiejuanas-34
    Jones-16

    Howard- 28
    Capela-16

    I think Brewer will occasionally play the 2, Ariza will occasionally play the 4, and DMo will occasionally play Center.
     
  7. dragician

    dragician Member

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    I think so too. Lawson will get a lot of mins than Bev as long as he drinks less bottles of beer.
     
  8. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    With Dwight

    Harden 35
    Lawson 32
    Ariza 32
    Howard 30
    D-Mo 28
    Brewer 23
    Beverly 22
    Jones 22
    Capela 16

    Without Dwight

    Harden 36
    D-Mo 32
    Lawson 32
    Ariza 32
    Jones 25
    Brewer 23
    Beverly 22
    Capela 20
    Hayes 18


    Dekker and Harrell are wild cards who could both factor in. I don't think McDaniels or Thornton will see the floor unless somebody is hurt.
     
  9. FTW Rockets FTW

    FTW Rockets FTW Contributing Member

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    I'm usually 7 deep
     
  10. cdrive

    cdrive Contributing Member

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    This right here of course is why you will never see 1 minute without either Harden or Lawson on the court. 48 minutes of playmaking and unchoked offense.
    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is a hell of a Rockets stat, via <a href="https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA">@ZachLowe_NBA</a> <a href="http://t.co/H6XDhVFRAZ">pic.twitter.com/H6XDhVFRAZ</a></p>&mdash; Mike Meltser (@MikeMeltser) <a href="https://twitter.com/MikeMeltser/status/623209726474457088">July 20, 2015</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

    If Capela gets good enough in the regular season to take ALL the back up C minutes, then we can also have 48 uninterrupted minutes of strong rim protection with Howard-Capela. But until that time, just as a reminder, D-Mo was filling in very nicely for Howard last season: Donatas Motiejunas the 8th best rim protector in the NBA

    Figure out the minutes between Beverley, Ariza, and Brewer to always have a good mix of perimeter defense. Go Lawson-Brewer for high tempo. Picture the sweet Lawson to Capela alley oops. Damn is it good to be a Rockets fan this off season!
     
  11. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    I prefer to look at groups on the floor together instead of just minutes.

    Starters:
    Lawson
    Harden
    Ariza
    TJones
    Howard

    6 minute mark in the 1st quarter:
    Beverly
    Harden
    Ariza
    DMo
    Capela

    11 minute Mark in the 1st quarter
    Lawson
    Thornton
    Brewer
    DMo
    Capela

    Start of 2nd quarter
    Lawson
    Thornton
    Brewer
    DMo
    Howard

    6 minute mark in the 2nd quarter
    Beverly
    Harden
    Ariza
    TJones
    Capela

    8 minute mark in the 2nd
    Beverly
    Harden
    Ariza
    DMo
    Capela

    10 minute mark in the 2nd
    Lawson
    Harden
    Ariza
    DMo
    Howard

    2nd Half similar

    That would give Haden about 16 minutes a half or 32 minutes a game.
    Lawson would get about 15 minutes a half or 30 minutes a game
    Pat would have about 10 minutes a half or 20 minutes a game

    There is always a good group of scorers on the floor and defenders. Lawson & Harden could open and close the games together. Plus there is a 10 man rotation.
     
    1 person likes this.
  12. kevC

    kevC Contributing Member

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    We need to really take advantage of our depth and lower our starters' minutes like the Spurs and Warriors.
     
  13. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    To Crash: The only pairing that would get torched on defense is Lawson/Thornton/Brewer/DMo/Capela.

    Yikes. No perimeter defense at all. Lots of steals though!
     
  14. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Lawson(30)/Beverley(18)
    Harden(36)/Thornton(12)
    Ariza(26)/Brewer(22)
    Motie(22)/Jones(20) Ariza(6)
    Howard(30)/Capela(12)/Motie(6)

    Something like that.
     
  15. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    The hope is that on most nights that unit would provide some offensive energy and not play against the opposing teams best offense. But yeah, your right, not the most inspirational defensive unit. At least DMo and Capela have the potential as a good defensive duo in the post. And on a good night Brewer would create havoc with his style of defense. On a bad night, not so much.
     
  16. DREAM ON!

    DREAM ON! Member

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    any rotation with Harden and Ariza playing less than they did last year
     
  17. Clown Baby

    Clown Baby Member

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    PG
    Lawson: 28
    Beverley: 20

    SG
    Harden: 34
    Brewer: 8
    Thornton: 6

    SF
    Ariza: 30
    Brewer: 10
    McDaniels: 8

    PF
    Jones: 22
    DMo: 18
    Dekker: 8

    C
    Howard: 30
    Capela: 12
    DMo: 6

    Harden 34
    Dwight 30
    Ariza 30
    Lawson 28
    DMo 24
    Jones 22
    Bev 20
    Brewer 18
    Capela 12
     
  18. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    Lawson 28
    Beverley 20
    Harden 32
    Thornton 10
    KJ 6
    Ariza 28
    Brewer 20
    DMo 29
    Jones 22
    Howard 30
    Capela 15
     
  19. Scolalist

    Scolalist Member

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    Seriously. And keeping Bev, Howard, DMo & Jones fresh for the playoffs
     
  20. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    I like an 8-man rotation.

    Lawson (32) / Beverley (16)
    Harden (36) / Brewer (12)
    Ariza (34) / Brewer (14)
    Jones (32) / Motiejunas (16)
    Howard (34) / Motiejunas (14)

    This keeps my bench happy. Brewer (26) and Motiejunas (30) share 6th man role and Beverley get a good chunk of play time to put on a full court press. The rest of the squad Capela, Dekker, Thorton could be used sporadically depending on the matchup and need during garbage time or injuries. However, I'd stick to my bread and butter to perfect chemistry and be ready for a deep playoff run.
     

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