We are better than most expected. The guys have played their tails off. They have worked very hard. They have outperformed. Mchale has squeezed every drop of effort and ability out of them. If we are really going to go for the playoffs and try to make noise, we desperately need to make a trade. This team, as currently constructed, is a lottery team.
Yeah, I;d actually prefer a smaller move like bringing in a veteran for the 09ers, than a big one at this point- just to keep the team jelling.
I disagree that our talent level is definitively outside the playoffs. I think we are somewhere in the 7-9 range as currently constructed. Basically a playoff contender, but not a championship contender. I agree we need to make a trade though; our goal isn't to get into the playoffs, though that is fun and all, but rather to win a title.
We will finish 9th or 10th without a trade. The soft underbelly of our interior play will be exposed in the 2nd half as the true playoff contenders go to the hoop more and exert their physical dominance. I like our guys. There's not a player on this roster that I really don't care for save Thabeet and Flynn and I'm actually hoping Flynn becomes something. But we are weak, weak in the interior and our cracks will show in the second half.
Coming into this season, I had no idea what to expect. A part of me thought that maybe Morey and Les bought in McHale as someone that they could have some authority over and influence playing time. I thought we might see Thabeet and T-will getting rotation minutes and be on our way to a miserable lottery season. That was quickly dismissed with the first game when Dalembert came in and did what he did. Then Parsons stole Terrence's minutes. Still never expected them to be quite this good this soon. No way I would have bet on being in the playoffs this year...at best we'd be fighting for the 8th seed like last year. McHale gets an 'A' from me so far.
I disagree. I think we are ~8th seed in talent level; Lowry's improvement, adding Parsons, and adding Dalembert over Hayes has made the difference in this team over the past two seasons. And because of the cushion we've built ourself (sole possession of 6th seed right now) we are probably going to make the playoffs. Hollinger gives us an 80% chance to get in. That sounds about right to me.
Hollinger's playoff chances stats are as worthless as t*** on a borehog. If this team loses 3 games and falls to #10, his playoff chances for us will go down below 50%. Then as soon as we win 2 in a row, they go up to 70% again. Absolutely stupid, worthless piece of propaganda there. Dalembert over Hayes is not an upgrade. It's a downgrade. Just watch. Parsons has replaced Battier pretty effectively and our perimeter defense has been very stout since we started running him and Lee out there major minutes with Lowry and Dragic and we started limiting Martin's minutes and benching Budinger. However, our soft interior defense is still going to be exposed. By the way, our disagreement is about 2 places, you're saying we'll wind up #8, I'm saying 9 or 10. So, we are pretty close to the same with the difference being you feel like Dally over Hayes is an improvement for us and I'm saying it's fools gold, that Hayes is the better player. Morey is going to make a trade or two. It's just a matter of if he is going to fold down, miss the playoffs, and stockpile more assets, or is he going to make a major move that pushes us up the ladder substantially. I suppose Kaman would push us up to 5-8 depending on what we gave up. I suppose a Pau trade would push us up to 5-8 as long as we didn't give up Lowry and too many of our role players. But if those deals aren't made, I would expect Morey will stand down, and trade away a few guys, in order to better position us for the offseason, like he did last year. And in that scenario, we will for sure wind up 9-10 or worse. So, we'll probably never really know how this will turn out because odds are very high that Morey is going to make a trade one direction or the other. My point is and remains the same, without a true two-way player in the middle, a guy that can defend effectively in the paint and can score and facilitate our offense, we aren't making the playoffs. Dally is too lazy, too inconsistent, and too dumb. When the heat gets on, Dally folds like a cheap tent, throws the ball away, forces bad shots, and his teammates see it and know it and they quit going to him. And then it's 4 on 5. And we all know what we got in Scola. Great player, great effort, true professional....but undersized against true bigs and when the rough and tumble starts, he's not going to get as many calls as he needs to, his efficency goes down, and his effectiveness is negated....unless playing alongside a legit center that can bring it on both ends of the court for substantial minutes against other bigs. Our bigs simply do not stack up. We need to trade for a legit big. If we don't, if we just dicker around with other positions, we are not making the playoffs.
No, I think we most likely wind up the 7th seed because we have built a strong cushion already and the teams behind us aren't that threatening.
For all those fans that are disinterested in the rockets this season because lack of a superstar, fear of uncertainty or the emergence of new stars on other teams like Lin.....guess what? The rockets are right in the mix for the playoffs. Flying under the radar as usual, we may sneak in and surprise a few.
Basically--our team's true talent level is about 8th seed, but we are higher than that right now and the lead we've built up has value you can't ignore. You're severely underrating the strength of our perimeter game. We barely missed the playoffs the last couple years and our perimeter is stronger now than it was in either of those years. I disagree that Dalembert is a downgrade from Chuck. Our rebounding and shotblocking are way up and a lot of that comes from him. It makes a huge difference whether you realize it or not. He can also do something about skilled big men who would just plain shoot over Chuck. Look, I love Chuck, but he was not a freaking center. He was short but strong PF and he often got abused by elite 7-footers when we tried to use him in that way. His defense was great when we stuck him on elite power forwards, but he was a liability against centers. Dalembert can at least challenge the shots of 7-footers and challenge them for rebounds and that makes a huge difference. Now, when you take a look at the teams behind us; Memphis and Portland are threats, but I don't think they're clearly better teams at this point. I think we can stay ahead of one of them, most likely Portland because they're in more of a hole. Denver is no better than we are and frankly they are a very similar team to ours. Minny is too far back to threaten us, most likely. I think, barring big trades/injuries, the playoff picture would fall out with Memphis overtaking us for 6th seed, us taking the 7th, and Portland taking the 8th. All of that said I agree Morey should and will make trades at the deadline. Being a low seed in the playoffs isn't good enough and he knows it.
I have been more than impressed with how McHale has turned this team around. I was convinced we were a terrible team after the first 10 games of the season where we started 3-7. Since then we have gone 17-7 and McHale has made pretty strong decisions about the player rotation in that run. Also, in that run we have had a 5-4 road record after our horrible 1-6 road start to the season. Hopefully, McHale can figure out how to integrate Marcus Morris into the rotation and hopefully he will produce.
Robbie - your signature rocks. I also have been holding out for an NBA head coaching position so that I do not have to deal with the headaches of fighting off college cheerleaders on a nightly basis...
I will actually argue that we are under-performing as a whole. 1) Martin has not shooting particularly well 2) Scola hasn't been Scola 3) Chase has regressed 4) PPat is just getting his feet back 5) New coach, new system, players are still getting comfortable 6) Mchale experimented a lot in the first quarter of the season 7) Name a player who is actually outperforming their talent. I can't think of one We're still a fairly young team with a new coach and we're trending up.
