[538]Westbrook broke BPM and is "pretty badly overrated"

noted. time to jump ship and be a clippers fan.

 

He will have to have one season under his belt to properly rate him.

CARMELO
DRAYMOND
RAPTOR

538 can't seem to choose good names.

 

Good analogy.

Two things are missing though.
1) Is the team better at rebounding using this deferring to Russ method?
2) Defensive rebounding IS defense

Regarding number 1) I believe that the OKC team was better at rebounding by acting as a unit. I feel like the absolutely MOST effective way to rebound in the NBA has always been as a team. This means deploying box outs for others, crashing the rim as a team, and not giving the other team much of a chance to rebound the ball. Russ is so athletic that if you box out your man, he'll probably go find the ball. Let's not act like that's a BAD thing. The other advantage of Russ getting that rebound before the others (and you can see it easily in the video) is that he's flying up the court with the ball as soon as it's in his hands. Transferring the ball from a center (whom has to be careful not to turn it over before giving up the ball thus slowing his own transition offense down) to the ball handler is inefficient when Russ is already attacking the moment he grabs the board. Boxing out and then running to the rim (as soon as Russ touches the ball) is WAY more efficient. Transition baskets get created by Russell's abilities at the defensive rim. That's not a terrible deal.

Regarding number 2) I feel like people tend to forget this[probably because they're not thinking about it while they're taking one]. Sticking with your man while the ball is in the air is not always necessarily a smart thing. A defensive board ends the other teams offensive possession the same way a steal, a block, etc does. Not rebounding the ball is giving them 2 for 1 possessions. So yes, it looks bad when Russell leaves his man to go rebound, but is it as bad as it looks?

Anyway, you make great points, but I think it's still more complicated. If the old boys are slow and the young boy is quick, maybe they find more eggs as a team that works as a unit.

 

And if the team's concept for rebounding is what forces it to be uncontested.. that has lower value? I would think that was a higher value. Like "Good job men! Bonus checks for the lot of ya."

 

Is it mud wrestling?

 

Triple doubles are good for propaganda popularity and fulll toyota center , of course then you also get preferential officiating treatment...never underestimate the power of td

 

Another thing they need to incorporate into the formula is the crowd ignition....its well known ifyou can get the crowd into it you have better % of winning the games...this is something rockets have struggled with and are well known for their lethargic starts....russ should help with it a lot....like A LOT

 

Spoiler

 

Totally agree that defensively the PG position matters the least when it comes to defense, though not sure its importance is so insignificant.

IMO Westbrook has all the skills, abilities to be a great defender as proven during his college days and first couple seasons in the NBA. Unfortunately as his offensive impact/star grew, the attention he paid to defense inversely diminish. Westbrook's defense suffers from the same problem Harden had... that is effort, inattention and poor rotation.

Perhaps with less of a demand on him offensively Westbrook could once again focus more on defense. His lack of effort/focus in the playoffs was the primary reason Damian Lilard completely destroyed him.

Dame would have far less stellar series against the Nuggets and Warriors, partly because, Harris and Curry/Thompson were consistently giving effort and focus on defending him. Not getting loss in rotations, not forgetting to switch, not not trailing, ie... to give effort and attention.

Curry IMO is average to good defender despite having below average athleticism. This is due almost entirely to his effort & attentiveness. He knows when and where to rotate and does so the vast majority of the time. Furthermore despite not being the strongest, fastest or quickest, Curry has consistently rated well in DRPM and defensive +/-. Coaches and analyst such as JVG, Zach Lowe & others have also consistently rated Curry as a average to good defender.

The Warriors have consistently been a good to great defense the past 6 years. In 2013-14, the Warriors with a lineup lead by Curry & David Lee, along with Bogut & 21 year old Barnes and Thompson were the 3rd best in the league.

 

Im so sick of these statisticians even when i'm computer science graduate

They don't understand value of will and emotions is not measurable. When uncontested rebounds according to them are without value, then why Westbrook always gets them? Maybe he is not skilled rebounder like Rodman but his willingness to do so is an asset by itself. Ive seen enough of rockets standing around not going for defensive rebound. Same on offense - sometimes as a star you have to do something out of nothing and it affects your stats - is it worse than just passing out of the bad situation like James Harden? Basketball is all about will and talent+athleticism, Westbrook got them. Is he perfect? No. But he will be there when it counts and will not shrink or hide.

 

The Glove Payton would not agree.

 

So many useless stats......

 

Westbrook is defintiely a great rebounder especially for a Guard. His triple double seasons unfortunately have polarized the debate over the value of those rebounds to the extreme.

There is a middle ground between his rebounds are worthless/gifted to him/stat padding and he is one of the leagues best rebounder in the NBA regardless of position.

The argument against giving him full credit for his rebound comes down to a few simple points:

1. In 2015-16 Westbrook's rebounding rate was a career high 12.4%. In 16-17 (age 28) his rebounding rate (TRB) jumped to 17.1%. This massive increase in his TRB% was accomplished despite a drop in his ORB%. IOW, it was driven entirely by a massive jump of his DRB% from 18% to 28% a 60% increase. While Westbrook's TRB% and DRB% has risen substantially the past 3 years relative to his career, his ORB% has declined.

2. It's obvious Westbrook didn't at age 28 suddenly become 60% better at grabbing defensive rebounds, but it was rather the result of a massive increase in uncontested rebounds from 5.0 per game to 7.6 per game. https://stats.nba.com/player/201566/rebounds-dash/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular Season

3. This changed can almost be entirely attributed to how the Thunders/Westbrook changed their rebounding scheme; rebounds from free throw, boxing out & contesting shots. Westbrook had the lowest contest rate of FGA and was one of the only guards contesting for rebounds on FTAs. One can argue the merits of the strategy of boxing out for Westbrook, him hunting rebounds and not contesting shots. I'm sure the pros you've listed are valid... as well as the con's others would bring up. What can't be argued however is that these rebounds is a result of ability and not scheme.

On the opposite spectrum, there are clear evidence that Westbrook is a great rebounder relative to his position.

1. Even ignoring Westbrook's inflated DRB%, his career ORB% 5.5% is outstanding. He more than doubles Curry & Harden career #'s and is significantly higher than Lerbon James (3.7) Durant (2.3) PG13 (3.0) Kawhi (4.8) and virtually even with Giannis (5.6)... though Giannis's # is rising fast (7.3%) last season.

2. Westbrook's TRB% prior to 2016-17 was already elite for guards/wings. He was improving nearly every year from approx 8% to 12.4%. (The DRB% & ORB% of BIGS are at least doubles Westrook)

3. OKC has ranked 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th, 2nd in TRB since 2014. Despite losing Durant/Ibaka in 16-17 they still ranked 1st (Westbrook's first triple double season).

4. The Thunders have rebounded better with Westbrook on the court vs off. + 3.3% (16-17) +5.9 (17-18) +1.9 (18-19). However I'm not sure how much player pairing affects this.

Westbrook isn't Rodman and his defensive rebound numbers are partly inflated/artificial due to planning/scheme. But it also helped the Thunder's TRB% as adding another dedicated GOOD rebounder to a team rebounding scheme is undoubtably a positive. Conversely Westbrook's chasing rebounds help drove their transition attacks while at times hurt their defense (ability to rotate, contest shots).

Westbrook on the Rockets or any team will not average double digit rebounds or over 7 uncontested defensive rebounds per game, but he will nonetheless improve the teams ability to rebound as a team. His double digit rebound seasons may be partially inflated, but his ability to rebound is elite (for guards/wings) even without it.

 

I don't think it's as bad as y'all making 8t out to be... js

 

“You’re best ability is availability” Westbrook not only will play almost every game and not need “load management” he will be a Viking on that court .. while Paul in his prime was an overall better player you simply can’t depend on him physically anymore.

 

well harden and anyone can probably win 48. remember last year when he was playing with 4 rec center guys and single handedly brought us from 14th to 4th in the conference standings by averaging 40ppg for a month and going on an unguardable tour of 30pt games?

 

So you think he can average 40 ppg when he is 30, 31 and 32 again without one major injury?

I might throw in another season that he can possibly attempt that.....but not in 2-3 years.

He does not do himself a favor with that, it is not conducive to longevity.

Here is probably hope that WB can take some of the load without turning it over much.

 

these are great points about rus rebounding. OKC relied on fast break buckets because they weren't good at scoring in half court offense. they boxed out for rus to get the break started. and that's not a bad thing for us to consider. even when rus leaves his man after the shot to chase the defensive rebound it gives us 5 rebounders that helps end the opponent's offensive possession. none of that is a bad thing. we may not do as much of it as OKC did because we're a really good half court scoring team, but i expect part of rus' appeal are the easy buckets on the fast break of which we had very few last year.

however, rus has a tendency to get a head start and leave his man when he thinks the shot is going up. this is a gamble because if the offense gets the rebound rus is out of position, especially if you play a smart team like the warriors who relocate once a defender leaves them. in that situation rus has lost his man and the rest of the team has to quickly rotate and pickup the closest man. the ensuing possession leaves rus' team scrambling, mismatched, confused, and possibly leaving someone wide open. in another situation, if rus gambles on his head start towards the rebound, there is a chance the supposed shooter finds rus' man open and passes it to him rather than taking the shot. 2 years ago (i don't have last year's data) DAJ contested more 3's for the season than rus did. that's because of him leaving early.

we do need help defensive rebounding. rus can help. but i don't want him gambling and breaking down our defense.

 

I don’t think so otherwise I wouldn’t have made that comment. It’s not really important.

2) It is anti Russ, apparently 538 thought it was so absurd that the Rockets were still ranked so highly they had to come up with another metric. This metric has been discussed here as kinda “meh”.

3) I have more issue that this is all about rebounding and it wasn’t mentioned. Russ “pretty badly overrated based on some other advanced stats”. Just more cherry picking.

4) I know, you just seem to be one of the higher ups leading the charge. This is a fan forum so it’s expected. Just trying to balance out the negative with some positive.