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538 - The LeBron James Decision-Making Machine

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by phantoman, Jun 28, 2018.

  1. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-lebron-james-decision-making-machine/?addata=espn:nba:index

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    The houston part of the article:

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    If LeBron wants to win right away, the Houston Rockets are the obvious choice. The salary-cap machinations would be involved — James would have to opt into the final year of his Cavs contract, and the teams would need to work a trade that basically guts Houston’s entire roster, all while the Rockets would probably want to simultaneously re-sign Chris Paul and Clint Capela to new contracts as well. The resulting luxury-tax bill would be enormous, and it’s not clear how James, Paul and James Harden would play together. But if it all came together — and last year’s Rockets could help assuage some of those concerns about fit — this Houston superteam might instantly have a better NBA-title shot than even the Warriors (!) do.Seriously. CARMELO thinks a core of James, Harden, Paul and Capela would win 66 games even if surrounded by Ryan Anderson and stray minimum-salary finds; as currently constituted, the Warriors project to win about 60 games next season. And any playoff experience adjustments might not tilt things back in Golden State’s direction much, since the Rockets would be adding a guy who has made the NBA Finals eight times in a row.

    Perhaps the only question is whether the potential for championships outweighs the negative effects such a move might have on the narrative arc of LeBron’s career. According to our straw poll, Houston was the ninth-most-damaging potential location for James’s legacy — though it was also the most polarizing destination in the poll. Through one lens, James’s suiting up for the Rockets could be viewed as “taking the easy way out” to join up with other stars. But it could also be spun as an Avengers-style team-up, with the mission of ending the Warriors’ stranglehold on the league.
     
    #1 phantoman, Jun 28, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2018
    FLASH21, ghettocheeze and Os Trigonum like this.
  2. Coach E

    Coach E Member

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    Stop reading when he mentions Ryan Anderson still on team
     
  3. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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  4. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I am skeptical. That page with the Carmelo factor also predicted the Rockets to win the Finals by 60%.
     
  5. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    why is there 23 teams better than the rockets for Lebron's legacy?
     
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  6. onreego

    onreego Member

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    I think at this point, everyone (even Lakers fans) know that his best option to win now is Houston.
     
  7. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    Because Lebron's legacy in the straw poll they did took a big hit by doing another "easy way out super team" jump.
     
  8. ghettocheeze

    ghettocheeze Member

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    Rockets are NEUTRAL GOOD and Warriors are CHAOTIC EVIL.
     
  9. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    okay (not directed at you but you) but never knew rockets were a 4 star 73 win super team who who beat lebron 3 straight after being down 3-1 and went to the finals

    even if you add lebron to the rockets, the rockets are still no superteam. still underdogs compared to gsw
     
  10. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    We did win 65 games though and of course we’d be a superteam
     
  11. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    OKC should be higher on the "guaranteed to win a championship with Lebron"
     
  12. RHU525

    RHU525 Member
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    It couldn’t predict CP3 would get hurt.
     
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  13. Os Trigonum

    Os Trigonum Contributing Member
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    or that our 3 pt shooting would go to hell
     
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  14. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    No team with Westbrook is all that likely to win a championship no matter who they get.
     
  15. RedRedemption

    RedRedemption Contributing Member

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    What. If we add LeBron we become the best team in history.
     
  16. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    relax right now, we aren't better than pre KD GSW 73 win superteam
     
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  17. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    so Lebron won't join a superteam.. KD did..

    2 superstars (only 1 in their prime) and no other all stars

    2 superstars in their prime & 2 all stars in their prime

    only one of these teams is a true superteam
     
  18. Andy Sheets

    Andy Sheets Contributing Member

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    "James would have to opt into the final year of his Cavs contract, and the teams would need to work a trade that basically guts Houston’s entire roster, all while the Rockets would probably want to simultaneously re-sign Chris Paul and Clint Capela to new contracts as well."

    Or they could take Ryan Anderson and a couple of extras :p And LeBron would not be joining a super-team with the Rockets. He would make them a super-team, but right now the Rockets are just a really good team.
     
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  19. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Well, we're more of a superteam than anyone else except the Warriors, so I'd guess that's what they mean
     
  20. justtxyank

    justtxyank Contributing Member

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    In a league without the Warriors we would be considered a super team.

    Teamups of guys at the upper echelon of the league is pretty rare.

    In terms of advanced metrics, the Paul/Harden/Capela tandem is every bit as good as the Lebron/Wade/Bosh tandem. We also won 65 games and were significantly out front of the rest of the league in terms of wins. This is despite injuries.

    The Rockets this year were a historically great team with two first ballot hall of famers and a guy posting big advanced metrics in Capela. Couple that with really good role players.
     

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